14 Teknologi yang Mengubah Kehidupan Kucing

ESMA Regulations – What Will Less Leverage Mean? | Trading Forex

The European Union has published new regulations applying to retail Forex, CFD, and the few remaining binary options brokerages in its territory. If you have an account with one such brokerage, the regulations will affect you when they come into force during the late spring and summer. This article will outline how the new regulations will impact your bottom line.

Details of the New ESMA Regulations

In March 2018, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the financial regulator and supervisor of the European Union, announced new regulations concerning the provision of contracts for differences (CFDs) and binary options to retail investors. It is unclear exactly when the regulations will come into force, but some time in May or June 2018 looks to be the most likely date, and Forex and CFD brokerages located within the European Union (including the United Kingdom, for the time being) will be forced to comply. The regulations will need to be renewed by ESMA every three months to remain in force over the long term.

The regulation concerning binary options is very simple: they may not be sold. In simple terms, this is the end of binary options as a product sold from within the European Union.

The regulations concerning CFDs are more complex but still relatively straightforward. Firstly, there is some confusion as to what exactly is a CFD, with many traders thinking that spot Forex is not considered a CFD and will therefore be exempt from the new regulations. They are wrong: spot Forex is technically defined as a CFD. In fact, every asset you see available for trading at Forex / CFD brokers will most likely be subject to the new regulations.

The new regulations will implement the following changes for retail client accounts (more on who is a retail client; later).

• The maximum leverage which can be offered will be 30 to 1. That will apply to major currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, etc.

• Other currency pairs, major equity indices, and gold will be subject to a maximum leverage of 20 to 1.

• Individual equities cannot be offered with leverage greater than 5 to 1.

• Cryptocurrencies are subject to a maximum leverage of 2 to 1.

• Brokers will be required to provide negative balance protection, meaning it will be impossible to lose more money than you deposit.

• Brokers will be required to close a clients open positions when the account equity reaches 50% of the required minimum margin by all open positions. This ;margin call; provision can be tricky to understand, so will be explained in more detail later.

• Bonuses or any other form of trading incentives may not be offered.

• Brokers will be required to display a standardized risk warning which will include the percentage of their clients who lose money over a defined period.

Understanding the ;Margin Call; Regulation

The best way to understand the 50% margin call provision is to use an example. Imagine a client opens an account with a Forex broker, depositing ;100 in total. The client opens a short trade in EUR/USD, by going short one mini-lot (one tenth of a full lot). One full lot of EUR/USD is worth ;10,000, meaning one mini-lot is worth ;1,000. To find out the minimum margin required to support that trade, we divide the size of the trade (;1,000) by 30, which comes to ;33.33. This is the minimum required margin to maintain the trade. Half of that amount is ;16.67. Now assume the trade goes against the client, with the price of EUR/USD rising above the entry price. As soon as the price rises far enough to produce a floating loss of ;83.33 (;100 - ;16.67), the broker must close the trade out, even if the trade has no stop loss or has not yet reached the stop loss. In theory, this means that a client;s account can never reach zero. Examples involving multiple open trades will be more complex, but will operate according to the same principles.

What Will This Mean for Traders?

The regulations will only apply to ;retail clients;, so you might try to apply to be classed as a professional trader. To get a broker to classify you as anything other than a retail client, you will have to show you have financial qualifications, a large amount of liquid assets, plenty of experience trading, and usually that you also trade frequently. Most traders will be unable to qualify, although it is worth noting that one London-based brokerage, IG Group, has stated that their proportion of clients now classified as recently increased from 5% to 15% of their total customers.

The major impact these regulations will have on traders is simple ndash; the maximum trade size they can possibly make at brokers regulated in the European Union will shrink. Many will say that the maximum leverage limits still offer far more than any trader could need, and I agree. I am wary of leverage and I hate to see anyone using leverage greater than 3 to 1 for Forex under any conditions, or any leverage at all for stocks and cryptocurrencies. Commodities can also fluctuate wildly in value. Too many people forget that the biggest danger in leverage is not overly large position sizing, it is that a ldquo;black swan rdquo; event such as the CHF flash crash of 2015 could happen and wipe out your account through huge price slippage. However, there is another factor that is widely forgotten: why assume that a trader rsquo;s account at one Forex broker is all the money they have in the world? For example, a trader might have $10,000 in the bank. If they deposit $1,000 at a broker offering maximum leverage of 300 to 1, they can trade up to $300,000. At a leverage limit of 30 to 1, that trader will have to deposit their entire $10,000 fund to trade at the same size. In a real sense, that trader might now have to take on more risk to operate in the same way, because if the broker goes bust, while beforehand they might lose $1,000 now they could lose $10,000! Even without negative balance protection, that broker would still have to come after them to try to get an extra $9,000 which they theoretically risk. Yet we saw after the CHF crash that brokers don rsquo;t come after every single client whose losses exceeded their deposit, due to legal costs and reputational issues. This shows that although the stated purpose of the regulation is to protect traders from excessive losses, the story is not as simple as you may think.

Beyond having to deposit more margin, and automatic margin calls, the other major change for traders will be that they will enjoy negative balance protection. This is a positive development which hopefully will make brokerages focus more heavily on the risks they are taking with their business model in the market. At the same time, a possible side effect of the new regulation is the potential increase in average deposits, leading to brokerages being more stable and better capitalized with client funds. Two final notes: brokerages will have to report on their websites the percentages of clients who are losing and making money, although the period over which the statistics must refer to is currently not clear. This will help to shed light on the debate over what percentage of retail traders are profitable, although some brokerages have already released what they claim to be accurate statistics showing that clients with larger account sizes tend to perform better as traders. Additionally, bonuses and promotions will be banned. I welcome this, as not only do they trivialize the serious business of trading, they are almost always a trick offering the illusion of free money whilst preventing traders from withdrawing any profits until a large number of trades are made (read the fine print the next time you squo;).

What If Yoursquo;re Not Happy Remaining in the EU?

Traders with accounts at affected brokers who cannot obtain professional status classification and feel they really need higher leverage than the ESMA limits outlined above might look for a solution by opening accounts with brokers outside the European Union. The most obvious destination would be Australia or New Zealand, where it will still be possible to find reasonably well-regulated Forex brokerages offering leverage in the range of 400 to 1. A recent development that is not talked about much is the growing difficulty of transferring funds to and from Forex brokerages in less tightly regulated jurisdictions. You might decide to open an account with a brokerage in Vanuatu, but you may find that a bank within the European Union might just refuse to send your money there for a deposit. This means that going far offshore, depending upon where you live, may not be a feasible option. In any case, the new regule impossible to live with, and overall there is a compelling case that they are a net benefit to any trader, so why migrate?

Beware Shorting Stocks | Trading Forex

In Forex, we talk about going long and short all the time without really considering any difference between them. That’s because in Forex there is not really any “long” or “short”: when you are trading a currency pair, you are really spread trading, always long one currency and short another.
Before we continue, let’s define these terms “long” and “short”.
“Long” simply means you have bought something. If you are long stocks, you have bought stocks.
“Short” means that you have borrowed an asset which you will pay back at the same price it was at when you borrowed it. You hope it will fall, so you can sell it, pay back the original borrowing. And pocket the difference.
In Forex this doesn’t really matter, because you are always buying one currency with another, so you are always long of one currency and short of another one. In trading stocks or commodities it is a little different. You are always either long or short cash against a real asset. Especially in stocks, there is a real difference between long and short. This is because stock markets have a long bias, meaning over any given period of time they have a statistical propensity to rise. Identifying periods of prolonged and continuing falls in the levels of major stock indices is very hard and perhaps even impossible to perform with technical analysis.
The major stock index is the S&P 500, which is an index composed of the 500 major U.S. stocks. It has been in existence since 1957 but it is possible to extrapolate its values for some years before then. Let’s take a look at how this index has performed historically.

S&P 500 Index: Long Bias Demonstration

Let’s imagine first of all that we just bought the Index every week since 1950. This would have produced an average weekly result of 0.18%. This is quite incredible and shows just how resilient the American stock market has been over the past 65 years taken as a whole. It is a clear demonstration of the index’s long bias, suggesting that when you are going short, all other things being equal you have the odds arrayed against you. Of course, we really need to apply a trend-following model to try and get a better idea of the Index’s behavior. Additionally, we will probably get more applicable results if we restrict any back testing to something close to the last 20 years.
So if we look at the S&P 500 Index since 1997, let’s say we buy only at weekly opens where the price is higher than it was both 3 and 6 months ago, and sell when the opposite is the case. This kind of trend-following strategy tends to produce positive results with USD denominated Forex pairs and also with common commodities.
However, when applied to the S&P 500, this strategy can produce positive results on the long side, but only losing results on the short side:
Long weeks: 531 trades, average weekly performance =+0.09%
Short weeks: 227 trades, average weekly performance = -0.06%
No matter which look back periods we use to filter the signals, ANY period of time that we use on the short side produces an average negative result, while just about any period of time we might apply to the long side achieves a positive results.

Which Stock Markets Have a Long Bias?

The first question you might ask yourself at this point is whether all stock indices are like this? We should divide this question into Geography and Sector. For example, if we look at the NASDAQ 100 Index, these are still composed of U.S. stocks, but it is a specific sector of technology stocks. Indices that are composed of specific types of stocks might be more liable to be statistically predictable on the short side.
If we look back through the NASDAQ 100 Index from 1997, we can see that it also has a long bias: in an average week during this period, it rose by 0.12%. Again, we find the same impossibility to construct a profitable momentum strategy on the short side.
Maybe the story is just the amazing resilience of the U.S. stock market. If we tried another key index located in another place geographically, perhaps we can get a good result on the short side.

Geographical Discrimination

What if we looked at a stock market outside the United States? This might give us an example where we can construct a better model for predicting short-term direction profitably on the short side. One good example to use might be the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index, as it is well-known that the Japanese stock market has underperformed over several recent years.
First of all, if we look back from 1997, overall there is actually a SHORT bias here: over the average week, the index fell by 0.28%. So it is no surprise that it is possible to construct a profitable model for the short side here. Let’s see what happens when we apply the 3 month / 6 month test to the Nikkei 225 Index:
Long weeks: 388 trades, average weekly performance =+0.05%
Short weeks: 353 trades, average weekly performance = +0.20%
Here we have a model that is profitable at both ends.

Don’t Use Technical Analysis to Short American Stock Markets

The moral of the story might be that U.S. stock markets have historically been too long to short as part of a trend-following strategy, at least if you are shorting a major index. It might be a better idea to use another judgement as to when to try to get in on a short move. Generally, bear markets fall faster and pass more quickly than bull markets. I think most candlestick analysts would agree with me when I say that a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is suggestive of a coming fall. However, if you are going to try to take advantage of it, don’t use traditional trend-following techniques, and be prepared to grab profits when the price is falling like a stone!

Note how the Index has struggled to make a new high since March, which is about ten months ago. A few weeks ago a bearish trend line became established across the tops, and over recent weeks we have seen a steeper trend line get established. If this trend line holds, it will soon push the Index down to around the 1900 area. This area has acted as major support twice in recent years, so a strong break below that area might well signify a steeper drop is on its way.



Source

Beware Shorting Stocks | Trading Forex

In Forex, we talk about going long and short all the time without really considering any difference between them. That’s because in Forex there is not really any “long” or “short”: when you are trading a currency pair, you are really spread trading, always long one currency and short another.
Before we continue, let’s define these terms “long” and “short”.
“Long” simply means you have bought something. If you are long stocks, you have bought stocks.
“Short” means that you have borrowed an asset which you will pay back at the same price it was at when you borrowed it. You hope it will fall, so you can sell it, pay back the original borrowing. And pocket the difference.
In Forex this doesn’t really matter, because you are always buying one currency with another, so you are always long of one currency and short of another one. In trading stocks or commodities it is a little different. You are always either long or short cash against a real asset. Especially in stocks, there is a real difference between long and short. This is because stock markets have a long bias, meaning over any given period of time they have a statistical propensity to rise. Identifying periods of prolonged and continuing falls in the levels of major stock indices is very hard and perhaps even impossible to perform with technical analysis.
The major stock index is the S&P 500, which is an index composed of the 500 major U.S. stocks. It has been in existence since 1957 but it is possible to extrapolate its values for some years before then. Let’s take a look at how this index has performed historically.

S&P 500 Index: Long Bias Demonstration

Let’s imagine first of all that we just bought the Index every week since 1950. This would have produced an average weekly result of 0.18%. This is quite incredible and shows just how resilient the American stock market has been over the past 65 years taken as a whole. It is a clear demonstration of the index’s long bias, suggesting that when you are going short, all other things being equal you have the odds arrayed against you. Of course, we really need to apply a trend-following model to try and get a better idea of the Index’s behavior. Additionally, we will probably get more applicable results if we restrict any back testing to something close to the last 20 years.
So if we look at the S&P 500 Index since 1997, let’s say we buy only at weekly opens where the price is higher than it was both 3 and 6 months ago, and sell when the opposite is the case. This kind of trend-following strategy tends to produce positive results with USD denominated Forex pairs and also with common commodities.
However, when applied to the S&P 500, this strategy can produce positive results on the long side, but only losing results on the short side:
Long weeks: 531 trades, average weekly performance =+0.09%
Short weeks: 227 trades, average weekly performance = -0.06%
No matter which look back periods we use to filter the signals, ANY period of time that we use on the short side produces an average negative result, while just about any period of time we might apply to the long side achieves a positive results.

Which Stock Markets Have a Long Bias?

The first question you might ask yourself at this point is whether all stock indices are like this? We should divide this question into Geography and Sector. For example, if we look at the NASDAQ 100 Index, these are still composed of U.S. stocks, but it is a specific sector of technology stocks. Indices that are composed of specific types of stocks might be more liable to be statistically predictable on the short side.
If we look back through the NASDAQ 100 Index from 1997, we can see that it also has a long bias: in an average week during this period, it rose by 0.12%. Again, we find the same impossibility to construct a profitable momentum strategy on the short side.
Maybe the story is just the amazing resilience of the U.S. stock market. If we tried another key index located in another place geographically, perhaps we can get a good result on the short side.

Geographical Discrimination

What if we looked at a stock market outside the United States? This might give us an example where we can construct a better model for predicting short-term direction profitably on the short side. One good example to use might be the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index, as it is well-known that the Japanese stock market has underperformed over several recent years.
First of all, if we look back from 1997, overall there is actually a SHORT bias here: over the average week, the index fell by 0.28%. So it is no surprise that it is possible to construct a profitable model for the short side here. Let’s see what happens when we apply the 3 month / 6 month test to the Nikkei 225 Index:
Long weeks: 388 trades, average weekly performance =+0.05%
Short weeks: 353 trades, average weekly performance = +0.20%
Here we have a model that is profitable at both ends.

Don’t Use Technical Analysis to Short American Stock Markets

The moral of the story might be that U.S. stock markets have historically been too long to short as part of a trend-following strategy, at least if you are shorting a major index. It might be a better idea to use another judgement as to when to try to get in on a short move. Generally, bear markets fall faster and pass more quickly than bull markets. I think most candlestick analysts would agree with me when I say that a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is suggestive of a coming fall. However, if you are going to try to take advantage of it, don’t use traditional trend-following techniques, and be prepared to grab profits when the price is falling like a stone!

Note how the Index has struggled to make a new high since March, which is about ten months ago. A few weeks ago a bearish trend line became established across the tops, and over recent weeks we have seen a steeper trend line get established. If this trend line holds, it will soon push the Index down to around the 1900 area. This area has acted as major support twice in recent years, so a strong break below that area might well signify a steeper drop is on its way.



Source

Beware Shorting Stocks | Trading Forex

In Forex, we talk about going long and short all the time without really considering any difference between them. That’s because in Forex there is not really any “long” or “short”: when you are trading a currency pair, you are really spread trading, always long one currency and short another.
Before we continue, let’s define these terms “long” and “short”.
“Long” simply means you have bought something. If you are long stocks, you have bought stocks.
“Short” means that you have borrowed an asset which you will pay back at the same price it was at when you borrowed it. You hope it will fall, so you can sell it, pay back the original borrowing. And pocket the difference.
In Forex this doesn’t really matter, because you are always buying one currency with another, so you are always long of one currency and short of another one. In trading stocks or commodities it is a little different. You are always either long or short cash against a real asset. Especially in stocks, there is a real difference between long and short. This is because stock markets have a long bias, meaning over any given period of time they have a statistical propensity to rise. Identifying periods of prolonged and continuing falls in the levels of major stock indices is very hard and perhaps even impossible to perform with technical analysis.
The major stock index is the S&P 500, which is an index composed of the 500 major U.S. stocks. It has been in existence since 1957 but it is possible to extrapolate its values for some years before then. Let’s take a look at how this index has performed historically.

S&P 500 Index: Long Bias Demonstration

Let’s imagine first of all that we just bought the Index every week since 1950. This would have produced an average weekly result of 0.18%. This is quite incredible and shows just how resilient the American stock market has been over the past 65 years taken as a whole. It is a clear demonstration of the index’s long bias, suggesting that when you are going short, all other things being equal you have the odds arrayed against you. Of course, we really need to apply a trend-following model to try and get a better idea of the Index’s behavior. Additionally, we will probably get more applicable results if we restrict any back testing to something close to the last 20 years.
So if we look at the S&P 500 Index since 1997, let’s say we buy only at weekly opens where the price is higher than it was both 3 and 6 months ago, and sell when the opposite is the case. This kind of trend-following strategy tends to produce positive results with USD denominated Forex pairs and also with common commodities.
However, when applied to the S&P 500, this strategy can produce positive results on the long side, but only losing results on the short side:
Long weeks: 531 trades, average weekly performance =+0.09%
Short weeks: 227 trades, average weekly performance = -0.06%
No matter which look back periods we use to filter the signals, ANY period of time that we use on the short side produces an average negative result, while just about any period of time we might apply to the long side achieves a positive results.

Which Stock Markets Have a Long Bias?

The first question you might ask yourself at this point is whether all stock indices are like this? We should divide this question into Geography and Sector. For example, if we look at the NASDAQ 100 Index, these are still composed of U.S. stocks, but it is a specific sector of technology stocks. Indices that are composed of specific types of stocks might be more liable to be statistically predictable on the short side.
If we look back through the NASDAQ 100 Index from 1997, we can see that it also has a long bias: in an average week during this period, it rose by 0.12%. Again, we find the same impossibility to construct a profitable momentum strategy on the short side.
Maybe the story is just the amazing resilience of the U.S. stock market. If we tried another key index located in another place geographically, perhaps we can get a good result on the short side.

Geographical Discrimination

What if we looked at a stock market outside the United States? This might give us an example where we can construct a better model for predicting short-term direction profitably on the short side. One good example to use might be the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index, as it is well-known that the Japanese stock market has underperformed over several recent years.
First of all, if we look back from 1997, overall there is actually a SHORT bias here: over the average week, the index fell by 0.28%. So it is no surprise that it is possible to construct a profitable model for the short side here. Let’s see what happens when we apply the 3 month / 6 month test to the Nikkei 225 Index:
Long weeks: 388 trades, average weekly performance =+0.05%
Short weeks: 353 trades, average weekly performance = +0.20%
Here we have a model that is profitable at both ends.

Don’t Use Technical Analysis to Short American Stock Markets

The moral of the story might be that U.S. stock markets have historically been too long to short as part of a trend-following strategy, at least if you are shorting a major index. It might be a better idea to use another judgement as to when to try to get in on a short move. Generally, bear markets fall faster and pass more quickly than bull markets. I think most candlestick analysts would agree with me when I say that a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is suggestive of a coming fall. However, if you are going to try to take advantage of it, don’t use traditional trend-following techniques, and be prepared to grab profits when the price is falling like a stone!

Note how the Index has struggled to make a new high since March, which is about ten months ago. A few weeks ago a bearish trend line became established across the tops, and over recent weeks we have seen a steeper trend line get established. If this trend line holds, it will soon push the Index down to around the 1900 area. This area has acted as major support twice in recent years, so a strong break below that area might well signify a steeper drop is on its way.



Source

Beware Shorting Stocks | Trading Forex

In Forex, we talk about going long and short all the time without really considering any difference between them. That’s because in Forex there is not really any “long” or “short”: when you are trading a currency pair, you are really spread trading, always long one currency and short another.
Before we continue, let’s define these terms “long” and “short”.
“Long” simply means you have bought something. If you are long stocks, you have bought stocks.
“Short” means that you have borrowed an asset which you will pay back at the same price it was at when you borrowed it. You hope it will fall, so you can sell it, pay back the original borrowing. And pocket the difference.
In Forex this doesn’t really matter, because you are always buying one currency with another, so you are always long of one currency and short of another one. In trading stocks or commodities it is a little different. You are always either long or short cash against a real asset. Especially in stocks, there is a real difference between long and short. This is because stock markets have a long bias, meaning over any given period of time they have a statistical propensity to rise. Identifying periods of prolonged and continuing falls in the levels of major stock indices is very hard and perhaps even impossible to perform with technical analysis.
The major stock index is the S&P 500, which is an index composed of the 500 major U.S. stocks. It has been in existence since 1957 but it is possible to extrapolate its values for some years before then. Let’s take a look at how this index has performed historically.

S&P 500 Index: Long Bias Demonstration

Let’s imagine first of all that we just bought the Index every week since 1950. This would have produced an average weekly result of 0.18%. This is quite incredible and shows just how resilient the American stock market has been over the past 65 years taken as a whole. It is a clear demonstration of the index’s long bias, suggesting that when you are going short, all other things being equal you have the odds arrayed against you. Of course, we really need to apply a trend-following model to try and get a better idea of the Index’s behavior. Additionally, we will probably get more applicable results if we restrict any back testing to something close to the last 20 years.
So if we look at the S&P 500 Index since 1997, let’s say we buy only at weekly opens where the price is higher than it was both 3 and 6 months ago, and sell when the opposite is the case. This kind of trend-following strategy tends to produce positive results with USD denominated Forex pairs and also with common commodities.
However, when applied to the S&P 500, this strategy can produce positive results on the long side, but only losing results on the short side:
Long weeks: 531 trades, average weekly performance =+0.09%
Short weeks: 227 trades, average weekly performance = -0.06%
No matter which look back periods we use to filter the signals, ANY period of time that we use on the short side produces an average negative result, while just about any period of time we might apply to the long side achieves a positive results.

Which Stock Markets Have a Long Bias?

The first question you might ask yourself at this point is whether all stock indices are like this? We should divide this question into Geography and Sector. For example, if we look at the NASDAQ 100 Index, these are still composed of U.S. stocks, but it is a specific sector of technology stocks. Indices that are composed of specific types of stocks might be more liable to be statistically predictable on the short side.
If we look back through the NASDAQ 100 Index from 1997, we can see that it also has a long bias: in an average week during this period, it rose by 0.12%. Again, we find the same impossibility to construct a profitable momentum strategy on the short side.
Maybe the story is just the amazing resilience of the U.S. stock market. If we tried another key index located in another place geographically, perhaps we can get a good result on the short side.

Geographical Discrimination

What if we looked at a stock market outside the United States? This might give us an example where we can construct a better model for predicting short-term direction profitably on the short side. One good example to use might be the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index, as it is well-known that the Japanese stock market has underperformed over several recent years.
First of all, if we look back from 1997, overall there is actually a SHORT bias here: over the average week, the index fell by 0.28%. So it is no surprise that it is possible to construct a profitable model for the short side here. Let’s see what happens when we apply the 3 month / 6 month test to the Nikkei 225 Index:
Long weeks: 388 trades, average weekly performance =+0.05%
Short weeks: 353 trades, average weekly performance = +0.20%
Here we have a model that is profitable at both ends.

Don’t Use Technical Analysis to Short American Stock Markets

The moral of the story might be that U.S. stock markets have historically been too long to short as part of a trend-following strategy, at least if you are shorting a major index. It might be a better idea to use another judgement as to when to try to get in on a short move. Generally, bear markets fall faster and pass more quickly than bull markets. I think most candlestick analysts would agree with me when I say that a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is suggestive of a coming fall. However, if you are going to try to take advantage of it, don’t use traditional trend-following techniques, and be prepared to grab profits when the price is falling like a stone!

Note how the Index has struggled to make a new high since March, which is about ten months ago. A few weeks ago a bearish trend line became established across the tops, and over recent weeks we have seen a steeper trend line get established. If this trend line holds, it will soon push the Index down to around the 1900 area. This area has acted as major support twice in recent years, so a strong break below that area might well signify a steeper drop is on its way.



Source

Beware Shorting Stocks | Trading Forex

In Forex, we talk about going long and short all the time without really considering any difference between them. That’s because in Forex there is not really any “long” or “short”: when you are trading a currency pair, you are really spread trading, always long one currency and short another.
Before we continue, let’s define these terms “long” and “short”.
“Long” simply means you have bought something. If you are long stocks, you have bought stocks.
“Short” means that you have borrowed an asset which you will pay back at the same price it was at when you borrowed it. You hope it will fall, so you can sell it, pay back the original borrowing. And pocket the difference.
In Forex this doesn’t really matter, because you are always buying one currency with another, so you are always long of one currency and short of another one. In trading stocks or commodities it is a little different. You are always either long or short cash against a real asset. Especially in stocks, there is a real difference between long and short. This is because stock markets have a long bias, meaning over any given period of time they have a statistical propensity to rise. Identifying periods of prolonged and continuing falls in the levels of major stock indices is very hard and perhaps even impossible to perform with technical analysis.
The major stock index is the S&P 500, which is an index composed of the 500 major U.S. stocks. It has been in existence since 1957 but it is possible to extrapolate its values for some years before then. Let’s take a look at how this index has performed historically.

S&P 500 Index: Long Bias Demonstration

Let’s imagine first of all that we just bought the Index every week since 1950. This would have produced an average weekly result of 0.18%. This is quite incredible and shows just how resilient the American stock market has been over the past 65 years taken as a whole. It is a clear demonstration of the index’s long bias, suggesting that when you are going short, all other things being equal you have the odds arrayed against you. Of course, we really need to apply a trend-following model to try and get a better idea of the Index’s behavior. Additionally, we will probably get more applicable results if we restrict any back testing to something close to the last 20 years.
So if we look at the S&P 500 Index since 1997, let’s say we buy only at weekly opens where the price is higher than it was both 3 and 6 months ago, and sell when the opposite is the case. This kind of trend-following strategy tends to produce positive results with USD denominated Forex pairs and also with common commodities.
However, when applied to the S&P 500, this strategy can produce positive results on the long side, but only losing results on the short side:
Long weeks: 531 trades, average weekly performance =+0.09%
Short weeks: 227 trades, average weekly performance = -0.06%
No matter which look back periods we use to filter the signals, ANY period of time that we use on the short side produces an average negative result, while just about any period of time we might apply to the long side achieves a positive results.

Which Stock Markets Have a Long Bias?

The first question you might ask yourself at this point is whether all stock indices are like this? We should divide this question into Geography and Sector. For example, if we look at the NASDAQ 100 Index, these are still composed of U.S. stocks, but it is a specific sector of technology stocks. Indices that are composed of specific types of stocks might be more liable to be statistically predictable on the short side.
If we look back through the NASDAQ 100 Index from 1997, we can see that it also has a long bias: in an average week during this period, it rose by 0.12%. Again, we find the same impossibility to construct a profitable momentum strategy on the short side.
Maybe the story is just the amazing resilience of the U.S. stock market. If we tried another key index located in another place geographically, perhaps we can get a good result on the short side.

Geographical Discrimination

What if we looked at a stock market outside the United States? This might give us an example where we can construct a better model for predicting short-term direction profitably on the short side. One good example to use might be the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index, as it is well-known that the Japanese stock market has underperformed over several recent years.
First of all, if we look back from 1997, overall there is actually a SHORT bias here: over the average week, the index fell by 0.28%. So it is no surprise that it is possible to construct a profitable model for the short side here. Let’s see what happens when we apply the 3 month / 6 month test to the Nikkei 225 Index:
Long weeks: 388 trades, average weekly performance =+0.05%
Short weeks: 353 trades, average weekly performance = +0.20%
Here we have a model that is profitable at both ends.

Don’t Use Technical Analysis to Short American Stock Markets

The moral of the story might be that U.S. stock markets have historically been too long to short as part of a trend-following strategy, at least if you are shorting a major index. It might be a better idea to use another judgement as to when to try to get in on a short move. Generally, bear markets fall faster and pass more quickly than bull markets. I think most candlestick analysts would agree with me when I say that a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is suggestive of a coming fall. However, if you are going to try to take advantage of it, don’t use traditional trend-following techniques, and be prepared to grab profits when the price is falling like a stone!

Note how the Index has struggled to make a new high since March, which is about ten months ago. A few weeks ago a bearish trend line became established across the tops, and over recent weeks we have seen a steeper trend line get established. If this trend line holds, it will soon push the Index down to around the 1900 area. This area has acted as major support twice in recent years, so a strong break below that area might well signify a steeper drop is on its way.



Source

Beware Shorting Stocks | Trading Forex

In Forex, we talk about going long and short all the time without really considering any difference between them. That’s because in Forex there is not really any “long” or “short”: when you are trading a currency pair, you are really spread trading, always long one currency and short another.
Before we continue, let’s define these terms “long” and “short”.
“Long” simply means you have bought something. If you are long stocks, you have bought stocks.
“Short” means that you have borrowed an asset which you will pay back at the same price it was at when you borrowed it. You hope it will fall, so you can sell it, pay back the original borrowing. And pocket the difference.
In Forex this doesn’t really matter, because you are always buying one currency with another, so you are always long of one currency and short of another one. In trading stocks or commodities it is a little different. You are always either long or short cash against a real asset. Especially in stocks, there is a real difference between long and short. This is because stock markets have a long bias, meaning over any given period of time they have a statistical propensity to rise. Identifying periods of prolonged and continuing falls in the levels of major stock indices is very hard and perhaps even impossible to perform with technical analysis.
The major stock index is the S&P 500, which is an index composed of the 500 major U.S. stocks. It has been in existence since 1957 but it is possible to extrapolate its values for some years before then. Let’s take a look at how this index has performed historically.

S&P 500 Index: Long Bias Demonstration

Let’s imagine first of all that we just bought the Index every week since 1950. This would have produced an average weekly result of 0.18%. This is quite incredible and shows just how resilient the American stock market has been over the past 65 years taken as a whole. It is a clear demonstration of the index’s long bias, suggesting that when you are going short, all other things being equal you have the odds arrayed against you. Of course, we really need to apply a trend-following model to try and get a better idea of the Index’s behavior. Additionally, we will probably get more applicable results if we restrict any back testing to something close to the last 20 years.
So if we look at the S&P 500 Index since 1997, let’s say we buy only at weekly opens where the price is higher than it was both 3 and 6 months ago, and sell when the opposite is the case. This kind of trend-following strategy tends to produce positive results with USD denominated Forex pairs and also with common commodities.
However, when applied to the S&P 500, this strategy can produce positive results on the long side, but only losing results on the short side:
Long weeks: 531 trades, average weekly performance =+0.09%
Short weeks: 227 trades, average weekly performance = -0.06%
No matter which look back periods we use to filter the signals, ANY period of time that we use on the short side produces an average negative result, while just about any period of time we might apply to the long side achieves a positive results.

Which Stock Markets Have a Long Bias?

The first question you might ask yourself at this point is whether all stock indices are like this? We should divide this question into Geography and Sector. For example, if we look at the NASDAQ 100 Index, these are still composed of U.S. stocks, but it is a specific sector of technology stocks. Indices that are composed of specific types of stocks might be more liable to be statistically predictable on the short side.
If we look back through the NASDAQ 100 Index from 1997, we can see that it also has a long bias: in an average week during this period, it rose by 0.12%. Again, we find the same impossibility to construct a profitable momentum strategy on the short side.
Maybe the story is just the amazing resilience of the U.S. stock market. If we tried another key index located in another place geographically, perhaps we can get a good result on the short side.

Geographical Discrimination

What if we looked at a stock market outside the United States? This might give us an example where we can construct a better model for predicting short-term direction profitably on the short side. One good example to use might be the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index, as it is well-known that the Japanese stock market has underperformed over several recent years.
First of all, if we look back from 1997, overall there is actually a SHORT bias here: over the average week, the index fell by 0.28%. So it is no surprise that it is possible to construct a profitable model for the short side here. Let’s see what happens when we apply the 3 month / 6 month test to the Nikkei 225 Index:
Long weeks: 388 trades, average weekly performance =+0.05%
Short weeks: 353 trades, average weekly performance = +0.20%
Here we have a model that is profitable at both ends.

Don’t Use Technical Analysis to Short American Stock Markets

The moral of the story might be that U.S. stock markets have historically been too long to short as part of a trend-following strategy, at least if you are shorting a major index. It might be a better idea to use another judgement as to when to try to get in on a short move. Generally, bear markets fall faster and pass more quickly than bull markets. I think most candlestick analysts would agree with me when I say that a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is suggestive of a coming fall. However, if you are going to try to take advantage of it, don’t use traditional trend-following techniques, and be prepared to grab profits when the price is falling like a stone!

Note how the Index has struggled to make a new high since March, which is about ten months ago. A few weeks ago a bearish trend line became established across the tops, and over recent weeks we have seen a steeper trend line get established. If this trend line holds, it will soon push the Index down to around the 1900 area. This area has acted as major support twice in recent years, so a strong break below that area might well signify a steeper drop is on its way.



Source

Beware Shorting Stocks | Trading Forex

In Forex, we talk about going long and short all the time without really considering any difference between them. That’s because in Forex there is not really any “long” or “short”: when you are trading a currency pair, you are really spread trading, always long one currency and short another.
Before we continue, let’s define these terms “long” and “short”.
“Long” simply means you have bought something. If you are long stocks, you have bought stocks.
“Short” means that you have borrowed an asset which you will pay back at the same price it was at when you borrowed it. You hope it will fall, so you can sell it, pay back the original borrowing. And pocket the difference.
In Forex this doesn’t really matter, because you are always buying one currency with another, so you are always long of one currency and short of another one. In trading stocks or commodities it is a little different. You are always either long or short cash against a real asset. Especially in stocks, there is a real difference between long and short. This is because stock markets have a long bias, meaning over any given period of time they have a statistical propensity to rise. Identifying periods of prolonged and continuing falls in the levels of major stock indices is very hard and perhaps even impossible to perform with technical analysis.
The major stock index is the S&P 500, which is an index composed of the 500 major U.S. stocks. It has been in existence since 1957 but it is possible to extrapolate its values for some years before then. Let’s take a look at how this index has performed historically.

S&P 500 Index: Long Bias Demonstration

Let’s imagine first of all that we just bought the Index every week since 1950. This would have produced an average weekly result of 0.18%. This is quite incredible and shows just how resilient the American stock market has been over the past 65 years taken as a whole. It is a clear demonstration of the index’s long bias, suggesting that when you are going short, all other things being equal you have the odds arrayed against you. Of course, we really need to apply a trend-following model to try and get a better idea of the Index’s behavior. Additionally, we will probably get more applicable results if we restrict any back testing to something close to the last 20 years.
So if we look at the S&P 500 Index since 1997, let’s say we buy only at weekly opens where the price is higher than it was both 3 and 6 months ago, and sell when the opposite is the case. This kind of trend-following strategy tends to produce positive results with USD denominated Forex pairs and also with common commodities.
However, when applied to the S&P 500, this strategy can produce positive results on the long side, but only losing results on the short side:
Long weeks: 531 trades, average weekly performance =+0.09%
Short weeks: 227 trades, average weekly performance = -0.06%
No matter which look back periods we use to filter the signals, ANY period of time that we use on the short side produces an average negative result, while just about any period of time we might apply to the long side achieves a positive results.

Which Stock Markets Have a Long Bias?

The first question you might ask yourself at this point is whether all stock indices are like this? We should divide this question into Geography and Sector. For example, if we look at the NASDAQ 100 Index, these are still composed of U.S. stocks, but it is a specific sector of technology stocks. Indices that are composed of specific types of stocks might be more liable to be statistically predictable on the short side.
If we look back through the NASDAQ 100 Index from 1997, we can see that it also has a long bias: in an average week during this period, it rose by 0.12%. Again, we find the same impossibility to construct a profitable momentum strategy on the short side.
Maybe the story is just the amazing resilience of the U.S. stock market. If we tried another key index located in another place geographically, perhaps we can get a good result on the short side.

Geographical Discrimination

What if we looked at a stock market outside the United States? This might give us an example where we can construct a better model for predicting short-term direction profitably on the short side. One good example to use might be the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index, as it is well-known that the Japanese stock market has underperformed over several recent years.
First of all, if we look back from 1997, overall there is actually a SHORT bias here: over the average week, the index fell by 0.28%. So it is no surprise that it is possible to construct a profitable model for the short side here. Let’s see what happens when we apply the 3 month / 6 month test to the Nikkei 225 Index:
Long weeks: 388 trades, average weekly performance =+0.05%
Short weeks: 353 trades, average weekly performance = +0.20%
Here we have a model that is profitable at both ends.

Don’t Use Technical Analysis to Short American Stock Markets

The moral of the story might be that U.S. stock markets have historically been too long to short as part of a trend-following strategy, at least if you are shorting a major index. It might be a better idea to use another judgement as to when to try to get in on a short move. Generally, bear markets fall faster and pass more quickly than bull markets. I think most candlestick analysts would agree with me when I say that a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is suggestive of a coming fall. However, if you are going to try to take advantage of it, don’t use traditional trend-following techniques, and be prepared to grab profits when the price is falling like a stone!

Note how the Index has struggled to make a new high since March, which is about ten months ago. A few weeks ago a bearish trend line became established across the tops, and over recent weeks we have seen a steeper trend line get established. If this trend line holds, it will soon push the Index down to around the 1900 area. This area has acted as major support twice in recent years, so a strong break below that area might well signify a steeper drop is on its way.



Source

Beware Shorting Stocks | Trading Forex

In Forex, we talk about going long and short all the time without really considering any difference between them. That’s because in Forex there is not really any “long” or “short”: when you are trading a currency pair, you are really spread trading, always long one currency and short another.
Before we continue, let’s define these terms “long” and “short”.
“Long” simply means you have bought something. If you are long stocks, you have bought stocks.
“Short” means that you have borrowed an asset which you will pay back at the same price it was at when you borrowed it. You hope it will fall, so you can sell it, pay back the original borrowing. And pocket the difference.
In Forex this doesn’t really matter, because you are always buying one currency with another, so you are always long of one currency and short of another one. In trading stocks or commodities it is a little different. You are always either long or short cash against a real asset. Especially in stocks, there is a real difference between long and short. This is because stock markets have a long bias, meaning over any given period of time they have a statistical propensity to rise. Identifying periods of prolonged and continuing falls in the levels of major stock indices is very hard and perhaps even impossible to perform with technical analysis.
The major stock index is the S&P 500, which is an index composed of the 500 major U.S. stocks. It has been in existence since 1957 but it is possible to extrapolate its values for some years before then. Let’s take a look at how this index has performed historically.

S&P 500 Index: Long Bias Demonstration

Let’s imagine first of all that we just bought the Index every week since 1950. This would have produced an average weekly result of 0.18%. This is quite incredible and shows just how resilient the American stock market has been over the past 65 years taken as a whole. It is a clear demonstration of the index’s long bias, suggesting that when you are going short, all other things being equal you have the odds arrayed against you. Of course, we really need to apply a trend-following model to try and get a better idea of the Index’s behavior. Additionally, we will probably get more applicable results if we restrict any back testing to something close to the last 20 years.
So if we look at the S&P 500 Index since 1997, let’s say we buy only at weekly opens where the price is higher than it was both 3 and 6 months ago, and sell when the opposite is the case. This kind of trend-following strategy tends to produce positive results with USD denominated Forex pairs and also with common commodities.
However, when applied to the S&P 500, this strategy can produce positive results on the long side, but only losing results on the short side:
Long weeks: 531 trades, average weekly performance =+0.09%
Short weeks: 227 trades, average weekly performance = -0.06%
No matter which look back periods we use to filter the signals, ANY period of time that we use on the short side produces an average negative result, while just about any period of time we might apply to the long side achieves a positive results.

Which Stock Markets Have a Long Bias?

The first question you might ask yourself at this point is whether all stock indices are like this? We should divide this question into Geography and Sector. For example, if we look at the NASDAQ 100 Index, these are still composed of U.S. stocks, but it is a specific sector of technology stocks. Indices that are composed of specific types of stocks might be more liable to be statistically predictable on the short side.
If we look back through the NASDAQ 100 Index from 1997, we can see that it also has a long bias: in an average week during this period, it rose by 0.12%. Again, we find the same impossibility to construct a profitable momentum strategy on the short side.
Maybe the story is just the amazing resilience of the U.S. stock market. If we tried another key index located in another place geographically, perhaps we can get a good result on the short side.

Geographical Discrimination

What if we looked at a stock market outside the United States? This might give us an example where we can construct a better model for predicting short-term direction profitably on the short side. One good example to use might be the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index, as it is well-known that the Japanese stock market has underperformed over several recent years.
First of all, if we look back from 1997, overall there is actually a SHORT bias here: over the average week, the index fell by 0.28%. So it is no surprise that it is possible to construct a profitable model for the short side here. Let’s see what happens when we apply the 3 month / 6 month test to the Nikkei 225 Index:
Long weeks: 388 trades, average weekly performance =+0.05%
Short weeks: 353 trades, average weekly performance = +0.20%
Here we have a model that is profitable at both ends.

Don’t Use Technical Analysis to Short American Stock Markets

The moral of the story might be that U.S. stock markets have historically been too long to short as part of a trend-following strategy, at least if you are shorting a major index. It might be a better idea to use another judgement as to when to try to get in on a short move. Generally, bear markets fall faster and pass more quickly than bull markets. I think most candlestick analysts would agree with me when I say that a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is suggestive of a coming fall. However, if you are going to try to take advantage of it, don’t use traditional trend-following techniques, and be prepared to grab profits when the price is falling like a stone!

Note how the Index has struggled to make a new high since March, which is about ten months ago. A few weeks ago a bearish trend line became established across the tops, and over recent weeks we have seen a steeper trend line get established. If this trend line holds, it will soon push the Index down to around the 1900 area. This area has acted as major support twice in recent years, so a strong break below that area might well signify a steeper drop is on its way.



Source

Beware Shorting Stocks | Trading Forex

In Forex, we talk about going long and short all the time without really considering any difference between them. That’s because in Forex there is not really any “long” or “short”: when you are trading a currency pair, you are really spread trading, always long one currency and short another.
Before we continue, let’s define these terms “long” and “short”.
“Long” simply means you have bought something. If you are long stocks, you have bought stocks.
“Short” means that you have borrowed an asset which you will pay back at the same price it was at when you borrowed it. You hope it will fall, so you can sell it, pay back the original borrowing. And pocket the difference.
In Forex this doesn’t really matter, because you are always buying one currency with another, so you are always long of one currency and short of another one. In trading stocks or commodities it is a little different. You are always either long or short cash against a real asset. Especially in stocks, there is a real difference between long and short. This is because stock markets have a long bias, meaning over any given period of time they have a statistical propensity to rise. Identifying periods of prolonged and continuing falls in the levels of major stock indices is very hard and perhaps even impossible to perform with technical analysis.
The major stock index is the S&P 500, which is an index composed of the 500 major U.S. stocks. It has been in existence since 1957 but it is possible to extrapolate its values for some years before then. Let’s take a look at how this index has performed historically.

S&P 500 Index: Long Bias Demonstration

Let’s imagine first of all that we just bought the Index every week since 1950. This would have produced an average weekly result of 0.18%. This is quite incredible and shows just how resilient the American stock market has been over the past 65 years taken as a whole. It is a clear demonstration of the index’s long bias, suggesting that when you are going short, all other things being equal you have the odds arrayed against you. Of course, we really need to apply a trend-following model to try and get a better idea of the Index’s behavior. Additionally, we will probably get more applicable results if we restrict any back testing to something close to the last 20 years.
So if we look at the S&P 500 Index since 1997, let’s say we buy only at weekly opens where the price is higher than it was both 3 and 6 months ago, and sell when the opposite is the case. This kind of trend-following strategy tends to produce positive results with USD denominated Forex pairs and also with common commodities.
However, when applied to the S&P 500, this strategy can produce positive results on the long side, but only losing results on the short side:
Long weeks: 531 trades, average weekly performance =+0.09%
Short weeks: 227 trades, average weekly performance = -0.06%
No matter which look back periods we use to filter the signals, ANY period of time that we use on the short side produces an average negative result, while just about any period of time we might apply to the long side achieves a positive results.

Which Stock Markets Have a Long Bias?

The first question you might ask yourself at this point is whether all stock indices are like this? We should divide this question into Geography and Sector. For example, if we look at the NASDAQ 100 Index, these are still composed of U.S. stocks, but it is a specific sector of technology stocks. Indices that are composed of specific types of stocks might be more liable to be statistically predictable on the short side.
If we look back through the NASDAQ 100 Index from 1997, we can see that it also has a long bias: in an average week during this period, it rose by 0.12%. Again, we find the same impossibility to construct a profitable momentum strategy on the short side.
Maybe the story is just the amazing resilience of the U.S. stock market. If we tried another key index located in another place geographically, perhaps we can get a good result on the short side.

Geographical Discrimination

What if we looked at a stock market outside the United States? This might give us an example where we can construct a better model for predicting short-term direction profitably on the short side. One good example to use might be the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index, as it is well-known that the Japanese stock market has underperformed over several recent years.
First of all, if we look back from 1997, overall there is actually a SHORT bias here: over the average week, the index fell by 0.28%. So it is no surprise that it is possible to construct a profitable model for the short side here. Let’s see what happens when we apply the 3 month / 6 month test to the Nikkei 225 Index:
Long weeks: 388 trades, average weekly performance =+0.05%
Short weeks: 353 trades, average weekly performance = +0.20%
Here we have a model that is profitable at both ends.

Don’t Use Technical Analysis to Short American Stock Markets

The moral of the story might be that U.S. stock markets have historically been too long to short as part of a trend-following strategy, at least if you are shorting a major index. It might be a better idea to use another judgement as to when to try to get in on a short move. Generally, bear markets fall faster and pass more quickly than bull markets. I think most candlestick analysts would agree with me when I say that a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is suggestive of a coming fall. However, if you are going to try to take advantage of it, don’t use traditional trend-following techniques, and be prepared to grab profits when the price is falling like a stone!

Note how the Index has struggled to make a new high since March, which is about ten months ago. A few weeks ago a bearish trend line became established across the tops, and over recent weeks we have seen a steeper trend line get established. If this trend line holds, it will soon push the Index down to around the 1900 area. This area has acted as major support twice in recent years, so a strong break below that area might well signify a steeper drop is on its way.



Source

Beware Shorting Stocks | Trading Forex

In Forex, we talk about going long and short all the time without really considering any difference between them. That’s because in Forex there is not really any “long” or “short”: when you are trading a currency pair, you are really spread trading, always long one currency and short another.
Before we continue, let’s define these terms “long” and “short”.
“Long” simply means you have bought something. If you are long stocks, you have bought stocks.
“Short” means that you have borrowed an asset which you will pay back at the same price it was at when you borrowed it. You hope it will fall, so you can sell it, pay back the original borrowing. And pocket the difference.
In Forex this doesn’t really matter, because you are always buying one currency with another, so you are always long of one currency and short of another one. In trading stocks or commodities it is a little different. You are always either long or short cash against a real asset. Especially in stocks, there is a real difference between long and short. This is because stock markets have a long bias, meaning over any given period of time they have a statistical propensity to rise. Identifying periods of prolonged and continuing falls in the levels of major stock indices is very hard and perhaps even impossible to perform with technical analysis.
The major stock index is the S&P 500, which is an index composed of the 500 major U.S. stocks. It has been in existence since 1957 but it is possible to extrapolate its values for some years before then. Let’s take a look at how this index has performed historically.

S&P 500 Index: Long Bias Demonstration

Let’s imagine first of all that we just bought the Index every week since 1950. This would have produced an average weekly result of 0.18%. This is quite incredible and shows just how resilient the American stock market has been over the past 65 years taken as a whole. It is a clear demonstration of the index’s long bias, suggesting that when you are going short, all other things being equal you have the odds arrayed against you. Of course, we really need to apply a trend-following model to try and get a better idea of the Index’s behavior. Additionally, we will probably get more applicable results if we restrict any back testing to something close to the last 20 years.
So if we look at the S&P 500 Index since 1997, let’s say we buy only at weekly opens where the price is higher than it was both 3 and 6 months ago, and sell when the opposite is the case. This kind of trend-following strategy tends to produce positive results with USD denominated Forex pairs and also with common commodities.
However, when applied to the S&P 500, this strategy can produce positive results on the long side, but only losing results on the short side:
Long weeks: 531 trades, average weekly performance =+0.09%
Short weeks: 227 trades, average weekly performance = -0.06%
No matter which look back periods we use to filter the signals, ANY period of time that we use on the short side produces an average negative result, while just about any period of time we might apply to the long side achieves a positive results.

Which Stock Markets Have a Long Bias?

The first question you might ask yourself at this point is whether all stock indices are like this? We should divide this question into Geography and Sector. For example, if we look at the NASDAQ 100 Index, these are still composed of U.S. stocks, but it is a specific sector of technology stocks. Indices that are composed of specific types of stocks might be more liable to be statistically predictable on the short side.
If we look back through the NASDAQ 100 Index from 1997, we can see that it also has a long bias: in an average week during this period, it rose by 0.12%. Again, we find the same impossibility to construct a profitable momentum strategy on the short side.
Maybe the story is just the amazing resilience of the U.S. stock market. If we tried another key index located in another place geographically, perhaps we can get a good result on the short side.

Geographical Discrimination

What if we looked at a stock market outside the United States? This might give us an example where we can construct a better model for predicting short-term direction profitably on the short side. One good example to use might be the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index, as it is well-known that the Japanese stock market has underperformed over several recent years.
First of all, if we look back from 1997, overall there is actually a SHORT bias here: over the average week, the index fell by 0.28%. So it is no surprise that it is possible to construct a profitable model for the short side here. Let’s see what happens when we apply the 3 month / 6 month test to the Nikkei 225 Index:
Long weeks: 388 trades, average weekly performance =+0.05%
Short weeks: 353 trades, average weekly performance = +0.20%
Here we have a model that is profitable at both ends.

Don’t Use Technical Analysis to Short American Stock Markets

The moral of the story might be that U.S. stock markets have historically been too long to short as part of a trend-following strategy, at least if you are shorting a major index. It might be a better idea to use another judgement as to when to try to get in on a short move. Generally, bear markets fall faster and pass more quickly than bull markets. I think most candlestick analysts would agree with me when I say that a daily chart of the S&P 500 Index is suggestive of a coming fall. However, if you are going to try to take advantage of it, don’t use traditional trend-following techniques, and be prepared to grab profits when the price is falling like a stone!

Note how the Index has struggled to make a new high since March, which is about ten months ago. A few weeks ago a bearish trend line became established across the tops, and over recent weeks we have seen a steeper trend line get established. If this trend line holds, it will soon push the Index down to around the 1900 area. This area has acted as major support twice in recent years, so a strong break below that area might well signify a steeper drop is on its way.



Source

HALAMAN SELANJUTNYA:

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