ESMA Regulations – What Will Less Leverage Mean? | Trading Forex
The European Union has published new regulations applying to retail Forex, CFD, and the few remaining binary options brokerages in its territory. If you have an account with one such brokerage, the regulations will affect you when they come into force during the late spring and summer. This article will outline how the new regulations will impact your bottom line.
Details of the New ESMA Regulations
In March 2018, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the financial regulator and supervisor of the European Union, announced new regulations concerning the provision of contracts for differences (CFDs) and binary options to retail investors. It is unclear exactly when the regulations will come into force, but some time in May or June 2018 looks to be the most likely date, and Forex and CFD brokerages located within the European Union (including the United Kingdom, for the time being) will be forced to comply. The regulations will need to be renewed by ESMA every three months to remain in force over the long term.
The regulation concerning binary options is very simple: they may not be sold. In simple terms, this is the end of binary options as a product sold from within the European Union.
The regulations concerning CFDs are more complex but still relatively straightforward. Firstly, there is some confusion as to what exactly is a CFD, with many traders thinking that spot Forex is not considered a CFD and will therefore be exempt from the new regulations. They are wrong: spot Forex is technically defined as a CFD. In fact, every asset you see available for trading at Forex / CFD brokers will most likely be subject to the new regulations.
The new regulations will implement the following changes for retail client accounts (more on who is a retail client; later).
-
The maximum leverage which can be offered will be 30 to 1. That will apply to major currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, etc.
-
Other currency pairs, major equity indices, and gold will be subject to a maximum leverage of 20 to 1.
-
Individual equities cannot be offered with leverage greater than 5 to 1.
-
Cryptocurrencies are subject to a maximum leverage of 2 to 1.
-
Brokers will be required to provide negative balance protection, meaning it will be impossible to lose more money than you deposit.
-
Brokers will be required to close a clients open positions when the account equity reaches 50% of the required minimum margin by all open positions. This ;margin call; provision can be tricky to understand, so will be explained in more detail later.
-
Bonuses or any other form of trading incentives may not be offered.
-
Brokers will be required to display a standardized risk warning which will include the percentage of their clients who lose money over a defined period.
Understanding the ;Margin Call; Regulation
The best way to understand the 50% margin call provision is to use an example. Imagine a client opens an account with a Forex broker, depositing ;100 in total. The client opens a short trade in EUR/USD, by going short one mini-lot (one tenth of a full lot). One full lot of EUR/USD is worth ;10,000, meaning one mini-lot is worth ;1,000. To find out the minimum margin required to support that trade, we divide the size of the trade (;1,000) by 30, which comes to ;33.33. This is the minimum required margin to maintain the trade. Half of that amount is ;16.67. Now assume the trade goes against the client, with the price of EUR/USD rising above the entry price. As soon as the price rises far enough to produce a floating loss of ;83.33 (;100 - ;16.67), the broker must close the trade out, even if the trade has no stop loss or has not yet reached the stop loss. In theory, this means that a client;s account can never reach zero. Examples involving multiple open trades will be more complex, but will operate according to the same principles.
What Will This Mean for Traders?
The regulations will only apply to ;retail clients;, so you might try to apply to be classed as a professional trader. To get a broker to classify you as anything other than a retail client, you will have to show you have financial qualifications, a large amount of liquid assets, plenty of experience trading, and usually that you also trade frequently. Most traders will be unable to qualify, although it is worth noting that one London-based brokerage, IG Group, has stated that their proportion of clients now classified as recently increased from 5% to 15% of their total customers.
The major impact these regulations will have on traders is simple ndash; the maximum trade size they can possibly make at brokers regulated in the European Union will shrink. Many will say that the maximum leverage limits still offer far more than any trader could need, and I agree. I am wary of leverage and I hate to see anyone using leverage greater than 3 to 1 for Forex under any conditions, or any leverage at all for stocks and cryptocurrencies. Commodities can also fluctuate wildly in value. Too many people forget that the biggest danger in leverage is not overly large position sizing, it is that a ldquo;black swan rdquo; event such as the CHF flash crash of 2015 could happen and wipe out your account through huge price slippage. However, there is another factor that is widely forgotten: why assume that a trader rsquo;s account at one Forex broker is all the money they have in the world? For example, a trader might have $10,000 in the bank. If they deposit $1,000 at a broker offering maximum leverage of 300 to 1, they can trade up to $300,000. At a leverage limit of 30 to 1, that trader will have to deposit their entire $10,000 fund to trade at the same size. In a real sense, that trader might now have to take on more risk to operate in the same way, because if the broker goes bust, while beforehand they might lose $1,000 now they could lose $10,000! Even without negative balance protection, that broker would still have to come after them to try to get an extra $9,000 which they theoretically risk. Yet we saw after the CHF crash that brokers don rsquo;t come after every single client whose losses exceeded their deposit, due to legal costs and reputational issues. This shows that although the stated purpose of the regulation is to protect traders from excessive losses, the story is not as simple as you may think.
Beyond having to deposit more margin, and automatic margin calls, the other major change for traders will be that they will enjoy negative balance protection. This is a positive development which hopefully will make brokerages focus more heavily on the risks they are taking with their business model in the market. At the same time, a possible side effect of the new regulation is the potential increase in average deposits, leading to brokerages being more stable and better capitalized with client funds. Two final notes: brokerages will have to report on their websites the percentages of clients who are losing and making money, although the period over which the statistics must refer to is currently not clear. This will help to shed light on the debate over what percentage of retail traders are profitable, although some brokerages have already released what they claim to be accurate statistics showing that clients with larger account sizes tend to perform better as traders. Additionally, bonuses and promotions will be banned. I welcome this, as not only do they trivialize the serious business of trading, they are almost always a trick offering the illusion of free money whilst preventing traders from withdrawing any profits until a large number of trades are made (read the fine print the next time you squo;).
What If Yoursquo;re Not Happy Remaining in the EU?
Traders with accounts at affected brokers who cannot obtain professional status classification and feel they really need higher leverage than the ESMA limits outlined above might look for a solution by opening accounts with brokers outside the European Union. The most obvious destination would be Australia or New Zealand, where it will still be possible to find reasonably well-regulated Forex brokerages offering leverage in the range of 400 to 1. A recent development that is not talked about much is the growing difficulty of transferring funds to and from Forex brokerages in less tightly regulated jurisdictions. You might decide to open an account with a brokerage in Vanuatu, but you may find that a bank within the European Union might just refuse to send your money there for a deposit. This means that going far offshore, depending upon where you live, may not be a feasible option. In any case, the new regule impossible to live with, and overall there is a compelling case that they are a net benefit to any trader, so why migrate?
Using Fair Value in Fundamental Analysis | Trading Forex
Fundamental Analysis is essentially the use of economic analysis to determine either the real value of an asset or whether a trend exists in the real value of an asset. The first method allows the derivation of the “fair value” or “real value” of an asset, allowing a trade to be placed if the current market price deviates significantly from that real value. The latter method allows a trader to have confidence in a trend if there is a trend of actual market price changes mirroring the fundamental trend.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Stocks
For example, both of these methods of fundamental analysis are commonly used in trading stocks. Stock traders that are prepared to hold trades over the long-term may follow a macro rule of only being long in a bull market, and the use of fundamental analysis to detect improving global or local economic fundamentals is usually a part of making a call as to whether a bull market is in existence.On a more micro level, fundamental analysis is also commonly used to derive a fair value for individual stocks, in order to determine which stocks are likely to be undervalued and therefore good bargains for relatively long-term buy and hold strategies. This is typically done through the use of price to earnings ratios (as earnings of a publicly quoted company may be easily and transparently discerned). Another method is to take recent dividend payments as discounted cash flow, with the “fair value” price of the stock being the discounted total value of the anticipated next twenty dividend payments.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Commodities
Using fundamental analysis in trading commodities is usually considerably more difficult than it is trading stocks. This is because commodities are usually prone to sharp fluctuations based upon demand and supply issues and all manner of localized events which may be hard to foresee. Furthermore, different types of commodities behave differently and have strongly variant characteristics.One example might be energies such as oil and natural gas. Fundamental factors affecting energy commodities typically include the economic health of large energy consumers (for example, Chinese industry’s appetite for oil consumption at any given time), as well as supply factors such as political instability affecting production areas. It is much harder to determine the “fair value” of a barrel of oil as changes in technology and other factors affecting the cost of extraction and/or production must be taken into account. What may have been the “fair value” of a barrel of oil ten years ago is quite different today due to big changes in extraction technology.
The Interesting Case of Gold
Gold is typically considered to be the quintessential store of value as mankind’s precious metal since the dawn of time: additionally, it has few dual uses to distract from its anointed role. It is seen as the ultimate “store of value” as unlike fiat currencies, as a store of value its “fair value” might be expected to remain constant. A study conducted a few years ago by financial academics Campbell R Harvey and Claude Erb found that in terms of gold, a Roman centurion during the reign of the Emperor Augustuswas paid about the same as a modern-day U.S. Army Captain, which would be their equivalent rank. Additionally, the price of a loaf of bread in 6th century B.C. Babylon was about $4 per loaf, which is not too far away from what a good-quality loaf might cost you in the modern-day U.S.A.
This study calculated that the “fair value” of an ounce of gold in 2012 was approximately $800, and that throughout history the price eventually reverts back to its “real price” after a significant deviation. This would have worked as a trading strategy in 2012 over the medium-term.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Forex
Obviously straightforward methods of fundamental analysis can be applied to currencies by analyzing the economic data of nations. The use of “fair value” methods is even more attractive here, as it appears it can be easily derived by simply comparing retail prices of common goods in various countries, and then applying the differentials to the relevant current market exchange rates. For example if $10 worth of currency in country A buys more goods than $10 worth of currency in country B, it would be said that country A’s currency is overvalued and country B’s currency is undervalued. The undervalued currency would be bought and the overvalued currency sold in the hope that the exchange rate would move in that direction.The problem with “fair value” in Forex is that it has not worked well at all over recent years. To test this theory, I looked at the value of the seven major global currencies (NZD, JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF) against the USD over a 9.66 year period, from January 2005 until April 2014.
The strategy used was fairly crude: at the beginning of each month, I hypothetically bought the three currencies that were the most undervalued against the USD according to the previous year’s OECD Purchasing Power Parities data, and sold the three currencies that were most overvalued. Each position was exited automatically after a month.
The results we present do not include the actual interest payment differentials that would have been earned or deducted. The results are simply based upon the changes in the exchange rates between the currencies and do not include transaction costs.
The results were as follows:
Conclusion
Using “fair value” is much more effective in long-term investing than it is over more short-term trading. Like most fundamental analysis, in my opinion it is likely to work best as an additional filter applied to conclusions derived from technical / price analysis.Source
Using Fair Value in Fundamental Analysis | Trading Forex
Fundamental Analysis is essentially the use of economic analysis to determine either the real value of an asset or whether a trend exists in the real value of an asset. The first method allows the derivation of the “fair value” or “real value” of an asset, allowing a trade to be placed if the current market price deviates significantly from that real value. The latter method allows a trader to have confidence in a trend if there is a trend of actual market price changes mirroring the fundamental trend.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Stocks
For example, both of these methods of fundamental analysis are commonly used in trading stocks. Stock traders that are prepared to hold trades over the long-term may follow a macro rule of only being long in a bull market, and the use of fundamental analysis to detect improving global or local economic fundamentals is usually a part of making a call as to whether a bull market is in existence.On a more micro level, fundamental analysis is also commonly used to derive a fair value for individual stocks, in order to determine which stocks are likely to be undervalued and therefore good bargains for relatively long-term buy and hold strategies. This is typically done through the use of price to earnings ratios (as earnings of a publicly quoted company may be easily and transparently discerned). Another method is to take recent dividend payments as discounted cash flow, with the “fair value” price of the stock being the discounted total value of the anticipated next twenty dividend payments.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Commodities
Using fundamental analysis in trading commodities is usually considerably more difficult than it is trading stocks. This is because commodities are usually prone to sharp fluctuations based upon demand and supply issues and all manner of localized events which may be hard to foresee. Furthermore, different types of commodities behave differently and have strongly variant characteristics.One example might be energies such as oil and natural gas. Fundamental factors affecting energy commodities typically include the economic health of large energy consumers (for example, Chinese industry’s appetite for oil consumption at any given time), as well as supply factors such as political instability affecting production areas. It is much harder to determine the “fair value” of a barrel of oil as changes in technology and other factors affecting the cost of extraction and/or production must be taken into account. What may have been the “fair value” of a barrel of oil ten years ago is quite different today due to big changes in extraction technology.
The Interesting Case of Gold
Gold is typically considered to be the quintessential store of value as mankind’s precious metal since the dawn of time: additionally, it has few dual uses to distract from its anointed role. It is seen as the ultimate “store of value” as unlike fiat currencies, as a store of value its “fair value” might be expected to remain constant. A study conducted a few years ago by financial academics Campbell R Harvey and Claude Erb found that in terms of gold, a Roman centurion during the reign of the Emperor Augustuswas paid about the same as a modern-day U.S. Army Captain, which would be their equivalent rank. Additionally, the price of a loaf of bread in 6th century B.C. Babylon was about $4 per loaf, which is not too far away from what a good-quality loaf might cost you in the modern-day U.S.A.
This study calculated that the “fair value” of an ounce of gold in 2012 was approximately $800, and that throughout history the price eventually reverts back to its “real price” after a significant deviation. This would have worked as a trading strategy in 2012 over the medium-term.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Forex
Obviously straightforward methods of fundamental analysis can be applied to currencies by analyzing the economic data of nations. The use of “fair value” methods is even more attractive here, as it appears it can be easily derived by simply comparing retail prices of common goods in various countries, and then applying the differentials to the relevant current market exchange rates. For example if $10 worth of currency in country A buys more goods than $10 worth of currency in country B, it would be said that country A’s currency is overvalued and country B’s currency is undervalued. The undervalued currency would be bought and the overvalued currency sold in the hope that the exchange rate would move in that direction.The problem with “fair value” in Forex is that it has not worked well at all over recent years. To test this theory, I looked at the value of the seven major global currencies (NZD, JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF) against the USD over a 9.66 year period, from January 2005 until April 2014.
The strategy used was fairly crude: at the beginning of each month, I hypothetically bought the three currencies that were the most undervalued against the USD according to the previous year’s OECD Purchasing Power Parities data, and sold the three currencies that were most overvalued. Each position was exited automatically after a month.
The results we present do not include the actual interest payment differentials that would have been earned or deducted. The results are simply based upon the changes in the exchange rates between the currencies and do not include transaction costs.
The results were as follows:
Conclusion
Using “fair value” is much more effective in long-term investing than it is over more short-term trading. Like most fundamental analysis, in my opinion it is likely to work best as an additional filter applied to conclusions derived from technical / price analysis.Source
Using Fair Value in Fundamental Analysis | Trading Forex
Fundamental Analysis is essentially the use of economic analysis to determine either the real value of an asset or whether a trend exists in the real value of an asset. The first method allows the derivation of the “fair value” or “real value” of an asset, allowing a trade to be placed if the current market price deviates significantly from that real value. The latter method allows a trader to have confidence in a trend if there is a trend of actual market price changes mirroring the fundamental trend.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Stocks
For example, both of these methods of fundamental analysis are commonly used in trading stocks. Stock traders that are prepared to hold trades over the long-term may follow a macro rule of only being long in a bull market, and the use of fundamental analysis to detect improving global or local economic fundamentals is usually a part of making a call as to whether a bull market is in existence.On a more micro level, fundamental analysis is also commonly used to derive a fair value for individual stocks, in order to determine which stocks are likely to be undervalued and therefore good bargains for relatively long-term buy and hold strategies. This is typically done through the use of price to earnings ratios (as earnings of a publicly quoted company may be easily and transparently discerned). Another method is to take recent dividend payments as discounted cash flow, with the “fair value” price of the stock being the discounted total value of the anticipated next twenty dividend payments.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Commodities
Using fundamental analysis in trading commodities is usually considerably more difficult than it is trading stocks. This is because commodities are usually prone to sharp fluctuations based upon demand and supply issues and all manner of localized events which may be hard to foresee. Furthermore, different types of commodities behave differently and have strongly variant characteristics.One example might be energies such as oil and natural gas. Fundamental factors affecting energy commodities typically include the economic health of large energy consumers (for example, Chinese industry’s appetite for oil consumption at any given time), as well as supply factors such as political instability affecting production areas. It is much harder to determine the “fair value” of a barrel of oil as changes in technology and other factors affecting the cost of extraction and/or production must be taken into account. What may have been the “fair value” of a barrel of oil ten years ago is quite different today due to big changes in extraction technology.
The Interesting Case of Gold
Gold is typically considered to be the quintessential store of value as mankind’s precious metal since the dawn of time: additionally, it has few dual uses to distract from its anointed role. It is seen as the ultimate “store of value” as unlike fiat currencies, as a store of value its “fair value” might be expected to remain constant. A study conducted a few years ago by financial academics Campbell R Harvey and Claude Erb found that in terms of gold, a Roman centurion during the reign of the Emperor Augustuswas paid about the same as a modern-day U.S. Army Captain, which would be their equivalent rank. Additionally, the price of a loaf of bread in 6th century B.C. Babylon was about $4 per loaf, which is not too far away from what a good-quality loaf might cost you in the modern-day U.S.A.
This study calculated that the “fair value” of an ounce of gold in 2012 was approximately $800, and that throughout history the price eventually reverts back to its “real price” after a significant deviation. This would have worked as a trading strategy in 2012 over the medium-term.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Forex
Obviously straightforward methods of fundamental analysis can be applied to currencies by analyzing the economic data of nations. The use of “fair value” methods is even more attractive here, as it appears it can be easily derived by simply comparing retail prices of common goods in various countries, and then applying the differentials to the relevant current market exchange rates. For example if $10 worth of currency in country A buys more goods than $10 worth of currency in country B, it would be said that country A’s currency is overvalued and country B’s currency is undervalued. The undervalued currency would be bought and the overvalued currency sold in the hope that the exchange rate would move in that direction.The problem with “fair value” in Forex is that it has not worked well at all over recent years. To test this theory, I looked at the value of the seven major global currencies (NZD, JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF) against the USD over a 9.66 year period, from January 2005 until April 2014.
The strategy used was fairly crude: at the beginning of each month, I hypothetically bought the three currencies that were the most undervalued against the USD according to the previous year’s OECD Purchasing Power Parities data, and sold the three currencies that were most overvalued. Each position was exited automatically after a month.
The results we present do not include the actual interest payment differentials that would have been earned or deducted. The results are simply based upon the changes in the exchange rates between the currencies and do not include transaction costs.
The results were as follows:
Conclusion
Using “fair value” is much more effective in long-term investing than it is over more short-term trading. Like most fundamental analysis, in my opinion it is likely to work best as an additional filter applied to conclusions derived from technical / price analysis.Source
Using Fair Value in Fundamental Analysis | Trading Forex
Fundamental Analysis is essentially the use of economic analysis to determine either the real value of an asset or whether a trend exists in the real value of an asset. The first method allows the derivation of the “fair value” or “real value” of an asset, allowing a trade to be placed if the current market price deviates significantly from that real value. The latter method allows a trader to have confidence in a trend if there is a trend of actual market price changes mirroring the fundamental trend.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Stocks
For example, both of these methods of fundamental analysis are commonly used in trading stocks. Stock traders that are prepared to hold trades over the long-term may follow a macro rule of only being long in a bull market, and the use of fundamental analysis to detect improving global or local economic fundamentals is usually a part of making a call as to whether a bull market is in existence.On a more micro level, fundamental analysis is also commonly used to derive a fair value for individual stocks, in order to determine which stocks are likely to be undervalued and therefore good bargains for relatively long-term buy and hold strategies. This is typically done through the use of price to earnings ratios (as earnings of a publicly quoted company may be easily and transparently discerned). Another method is to take recent dividend payments as discounted cash flow, with the “fair value” price of the stock being the discounted total value of the anticipated next twenty dividend payments.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Commodities
Using fundamental analysis in trading commodities is usually considerably more difficult than it is trading stocks. This is because commodities are usually prone to sharp fluctuations based upon demand and supply issues and all manner of localized events which may be hard to foresee. Furthermore, different types of commodities behave differently and have strongly variant characteristics.One example might be energies such as oil and natural gas. Fundamental factors affecting energy commodities typically include the economic health of large energy consumers (for example, Chinese industry’s appetite for oil consumption at any given time), as well as supply factors such as political instability affecting production areas. It is much harder to determine the “fair value” of a barrel of oil as changes in technology and other factors affecting the cost of extraction and/or production must be taken into account. What may have been the “fair value” of a barrel of oil ten years ago is quite different today due to big changes in extraction technology.
The Interesting Case of Gold
Gold is typically considered to be the quintessential store of value as mankind’s precious metal since the dawn of time: additionally, it has few dual uses to distract from its anointed role. It is seen as the ultimate “store of value” as unlike fiat currencies, as a store of value its “fair value” might be expected to remain constant. A study conducted a few years ago by financial academics Campbell R Harvey and Claude Erb found that in terms of gold, a Roman centurion during the reign of the Emperor Augustuswas paid about the same as a modern-day U.S. Army Captain, which would be their equivalent rank. Additionally, the price of a loaf of bread in 6th century B.C. Babylon was about $4 per loaf, which is not too far away from what a good-quality loaf might cost you in the modern-day U.S.A.
This study calculated that the “fair value” of an ounce of gold in 2012 was approximately $800, and that throughout history the price eventually reverts back to its “real price” after a significant deviation. This would have worked as a trading strategy in 2012 over the medium-term.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Forex
Obviously straightforward methods of fundamental analysis can be applied to currencies by analyzing the economic data of nations. The use of “fair value” methods is even more attractive here, as it appears it can be easily derived by simply comparing retail prices of common goods in various countries, and then applying the differentials to the relevant current market exchange rates. For example if $10 worth of currency in country A buys more goods than $10 worth of currency in country B, it would be said that country A’s currency is overvalued and country B’s currency is undervalued. The undervalued currency would be bought and the overvalued currency sold in the hope that the exchange rate would move in that direction.The problem with “fair value” in Forex is that it has not worked well at all over recent years. To test this theory, I looked at the value of the seven major global currencies (NZD, JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF) against the USD over a 9.66 year period, from January 2005 until April 2014.
The strategy used was fairly crude: at the beginning of each month, I hypothetically bought the three currencies that were the most undervalued against the USD according to the previous year’s OECD Purchasing Power Parities data, and sold the three currencies that were most overvalued. Each position was exited automatically after a month.
The results we present do not include the actual interest payment differentials that would have been earned or deducted. The results are simply based upon the changes in the exchange rates between the currencies and do not include transaction costs.
The results were as follows:
Conclusion
Using “fair value” is much more effective in long-term investing than it is over more short-term trading. Like most fundamental analysis, in my opinion it is likely to work best as an additional filter applied to conclusions derived from technical / price analysis.Source
Using Fair Value in Fundamental Analysis | Trading Forex
Fundamental Analysis is essentially the use of economic analysis to determine either the real value of an asset or whether a trend exists in the real value of an asset. The first method allows the derivation of the “fair value” or “real value” of an asset, allowing a trade to be placed if the current market price deviates significantly from that real value. The latter method allows a trader to have confidence in a trend if there is a trend of actual market price changes mirroring the fundamental trend.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Stocks
For example, both of these methods of fundamental analysis are commonly used in trading stocks. Stock traders that are prepared to hold trades over the long-term may follow a macro rule of only being long in a bull market, and the use of fundamental analysis to detect improving global or local economic fundamentals is usually a part of making a call as to whether a bull market is in existence.On a more micro level, fundamental analysis is also commonly used to derive a fair value for individual stocks, in order to determine which stocks are likely to be undervalued and therefore good bargains for relatively long-term buy and hold strategies. This is typically done through the use of price to earnings ratios (as earnings of a publicly quoted company may be easily and transparently discerned). Another method is to take recent dividend payments as discounted cash flow, with the “fair value” price of the stock being the discounted total value of the anticipated next twenty dividend payments.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Commodities
Using fundamental analysis in trading commodities is usually considerably more difficult than it is trading stocks. This is because commodities are usually prone to sharp fluctuations based upon demand and supply issues and all manner of localized events which may be hard to foresee. Furthermore, different types of commodities behave differently and have strongly variant characteristics.One example might be energies such as oil and natural gas. Fundamental factors affecting energy commodities typically include the economic health of large energy consumers (for example, Chinese industry’s appetite for oil consumption at any given time), as well as supply factors such as political instability affecting production areas. It is much harder to determine the “fair value” of a barrel of oil as changes in technology and other factors affecting the cost of extraction and/or production must be taken into account. What may have been the “fair value” of a barrel of oil ten years ago is quite different today due to big changes in extraction technology.
The Interesting Case of Gold
Gold is typically considered to be the quintessential store of value as mankind’s precious metal since the dawn of time: additionally, it has few dual uses to distract from its anointed role. It is seen as the ultimate “store of value” as unlike fiat currencies, as a store of value its “fair value” might be expected to remain constant. A study conducted a few years ago by financial academics Campbell R Harvey and Claude Erb found that in terms of gold, a Roman centurion during the reign of the Emperor Augustuswas paid about the same as a modern-day U.S. Army Captain, which would be their equivalent rank. Additionally, the price of a loaf of bread in 6th century B.C. Babylon was about $4 per loaf, which is not too far away from what a good-quality loaf might cost you in the modern-day U.S.A.
This study calculated that the “fair value” of an ounce of gold in 2012 was approximately $800, and that throughout history the price eventually reverts back to its “real price” after a significant deviation. This would have worked as a trading strategy in 2012 over the medium-term.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Forex
Obviously straightforward methods of fundamental analysis can be applied to currencies by analyzing the economic data of nations. The use of “fair value” methods is even more attractive here, as it appears it can be easily derived by simply comparing retail prices of common goods in various countries, and then applying the differentials to the relevant current market exchange rates. For example if $10 worth of currency in country A buys more goods than $10 worth of currency in country B, it would be said that country A’s currency is overvalued and country B’s currency is undervalued. The undervalued currency would be bought and the overvalued currency sold in the hope that the exchange rate would move in that direction.The problem with “fair value” in Forex is that it has not worked well at all over recent years. To test this theory, I looked at the value of the seven major global currencies (NZD, JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF) against the USD over a 9.66 year period, from January 2005 until April 2014.
The strategy used was fairly crude: at the beginning of each month, I hypothetically bought the three currencies that were the most undervalued against the USD according to the previous year’s OECD Purchasing Power Parities data, and sold the three currencies that were most overvalued. Each position was exited automatically after a month.
The results we present do not include the actual interest payment differentials that would have been earned or deducted. The results are simply based upon the changes in the exchange rates between the currencies and do not include transaction costs.
The results were as follows:
Conclusion
Using “fair value” is much more effective in long-term investing than it is over more short-term trading. Like most fundamental analysis, in my opinion it is likely to work best as an additional filter applied to conclusions derived from technical / price analysis.Source
Using Fair Value in Fundamental Analysis | Trading Forex
Fundamental Analysis is essentially the use of economic analysis to determine either the real value of an asset or whether a trend exists in the real value of an asset. The first method allows the derivation of the “fair value” or “real value” of an asset, allowing a trade to be placed if the current market price deviates significantly from that real value. The latter method allows a trader to have confidence in a trend if there is a trend of actual market price changes mirroring the fundamental trend.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Stocks
For example, both of these methods of fundamental analysis are commonly used in trading stocks. Stock traders that are prepared to hold trades over the long-term may follow a macro rule of only being long in a bull market, and the use of fundamental analysis to detect improving global or local economic fundamentals is usually a part of making a call as to whether a bull market is in existence.On a more micro level, fundamental analysis is also commonly used to derive a fair value for individual stocks, in order to determine which stocks are likely to be undervalued and therefore good bargains for relatively long-term buy and hold strategies. This is typically done through the use of price to earnings ratios (as earnings of a publicly quoted company may be easily and transparently discerned). Another method is to take recent dividend payments as discounted cash flow, with the “fair value” price of the stock being the discounted total value of the anticipated next twenty dividend payments.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Commodities
Using fundamental analysis in trading commodities is usually considerably more difficult than it is trading stocks. This is because commodities are usually prone to sharp fluctuations based upon demand and supply issues and all manner of localized events which may be hard to foresee. Furthermore, different types of commodities behave differently and have strongly variant characteristics.One example might be energies such as oil and natural gas. Fundamental factors affecting energy commodities typically include the economic health of large energy consumers (for example, Chinese industry’s appetite for oil consumption at any given time), as well as supply factors such as political instability affecting production areas. It is much harder to determine the “fair value” of a barrel of oil as changes in technology and other factors affecting the cost of extraction and/or production must be taken into account. What may have been the “fair value” of a barrel of oil ten years ago is quite different today due to big changes in extraction technology.
The Interesting Case of Gold
Gold is typically considered to be the quintessential store of value as mankind’s precious metal since the dawn of time: additionally, it has few dual uses to distract from its anointed role. It is seen as the ultimate “store of value” as unlike fiat currencies, as a store of value its “fair value” might be expected to remain constant. A study conducted a few years ago by financial academics Campbell R Harvey and Claude Erb found that in terms of gold, a Roman centurion during the reign of the Emperor Augustuswas paid about the same as a modern-day U.S. Army Captain, which would be their equivalent rank. Additionally, the price of a loaf of bread in 6th century B.C. Babylon was about $4 per loaf, which is not too far away from what a good-quality loaf might cost you in the modern-day U.S.A.
This study calculated that the “fair value” of an ounce of gold in 2012 was approximately $800, and that throughout history the price eventually reverts back to its “real price” after a significant deviation. This would have worked as a trading strategy in 2012 over the medium-term.
Fundamental Analysis in Trading Forex
Obviously straightforward methods of fundamental analysis can be applied to currencies by analyzing the economic data of nations. The use of “fair value” methods is even more attractive here, as it appears it can be easily derived by simply comparing retail prices of common goods in various countries, and then applying the differentials to the relevant current market exchange rates. For example if $10 worth of currency in country A buys more goods than $10 worth of currency in country B, it would be said that country A’s currency is overvalued and country B’s currency is undervalued. The undervalued currency would be bought and the overvalued currency sold in the hope that the exchange rate would move in that direction.The problem with “fair value” in Forex is that it has not worked well at all over recent years. To test this theory, I looked at the value of the seven major global currencies (NZD, JPY, EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF) against the USD over a 9.66 year period, from January 2005 until April 2014.
The strategy used was fairly crude: at the beginning of each month, I hypothetically bought the three currencies that were the most undervalued against the USD according to the previous year’s OECD Purchasing Power Parities data, and sold the three currencies that were most overvalued. Each position was exited automatically after a month.
The results we present do not include the actual interest payment differentials that would have been earned or deducted. The results are simply based upon the changes in the exchange rates between the currencies and do not include transaction costs.
The results were as follows:
Conclusion
Using “fair value” is much more effective in long-term investing than it is over more short-term trading. Like most fundamental analysis, in my opinion it is likely to work best as an additional filter applied to conclusions derived from technical / price analysis.Source
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