The European Union has published new regulations applying to retail Forex, CFD, and the few remaining binary options brokerages in its territory. If you have an account with one such brokerage, the regulations will affect you when they come into force during the late spring and summer. This article will outline how the new regulations will impact your bottom line.
Details of the New ESMA Regulations
In March 2018, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the financial regulator and supervisor of the European Union, announced new regulations concerning the provision of contracts for differences (CFDs) and binary options to retail investors. It is unclear exactly when the regulations will come into force, but some time in May or June 2018 looks to be the most likely date, and Forex and CFD brokerages located within the European Union (including the United Kingdom, for the time being) will be forced to comply. The regulations will need to be renewed by ESMA every three months to remain in force over the long term.
The regulation concerning binary options is very simple: they may not be sold. In simple terms, this is the end of binary options as a product sold from within the European Union.
The regulations concerning CFDs are more complex but still relatively straightforward. Firstly, there is some confusion as to what exactly is a CFD, with many traders thinking that spot Forex is not considered a CFD and will therefore be exempt from the new regulations. They are wrong: spot Forex is technically defined as a CFD. In fact, every asset you see available for trading at Forex / CFD brokers will most likely be subject to the new regulations.
The new regulations will implement the following changes for retail client accounts (more on who is a retail client; later).
-
The maximum leverage which can be offered will be 30 to 1. That will apply to major currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, etc.
-
Other currency pairs, major equity indices, and gold will be subject to a maximum leverage of 20 to 1.
-
Individual equities cannot be offered with leverage greater than 5 to 1.
-
Cryptocurrencies are subject to a maximum leverage of 2 to 1.
-
Brokers will be required to provide negative balance protection, meaning it will be impossible to lose more money than you deposit.
-
Brokers will be required to close a clients open positions when the account equity reaches 50% of the required minimum margin by all open positions. This ;margin call; provision can be tricky to understand, so will be explained in more detail later.
-
Bonuses or any other form of trading incentives may not be offered.
-
Brokers will be required to display a standardized risk warning which will include the percentage of their clients who lose money over a defined period.
Understanding the ;Margin Call; Regulation
The best way to understand the 50% margin call provision is to use an example. Imagine a client opens an account with a Forex broker, depositing ;100 in total. The client opens a short trade in EUR/USD, by going short one mini-lot (one tenth of a full lot). One full lot of EUR/USD is worth ;10,000, meaning one mini-lot is worth ;1,000. To find out the minimum margin required to support that trade, we divide the size of the trade (;1,000) by 30, which comes to ;33.33. This is the minimum required margin to maintain the trade. Half of that amount is ;16.67. Now assume the trade goes against the client, with the price of EUR/USD rising above the entry price. As soon as the price rises far enough to produce a floating loss of ;83.33 (;100 - ;16.67), the broker must close the trade out, even if the trade has no stop loss or has not yet reached the stop loss. In theory, this means that a client;s account can never reach zero. Examples involving multiple open trades will be more complex, but will operate according to the same principles.
What Will This Mean for Traders?
The regulations will only apply to ;retail clients;, so you might try to apply to be classed as a professional trader. To get a broker to classify you as anything other than a retail client, you will have to show you have financial qualifications, a large amount of liquid assets, plenty of experience trading, and usually that you also trade frequently. Most traders will be unable to qualify, although it is worth noting that one London-based brokerage, IG Group, has stated that their proportion of clients now classified as recently increased from 5% to 15% of their total customers.
The major impact these regulations will have on traders is simple ndash; the maximum trade size they can possibly make at brokers regulated in the European Union will shrink. Many will say that the maximum leverage limits still offer far more than any trader could need, and I agree. I am wary of leverage and I hate to see anyone using leverage greater than 3 to 1 for Forex under any conditions, or any leverage at all for stocks and cryptocurrencies. Commodities can also fluctuate wildly in value. Too many people forget that the biggest danger in leverage is not overly large position sizing, it is that a ldquo;black swan rdquo; event such as the CHF flash crash of 2015 could happen and wipe out your account through huge price slippage. However, there is another factor that is widely forgotten: why assume that a trader rsquo;s account at one Forex broker is all the money they have in the world? For example, a trader might have $10,000 in the bank. If they deposit $1,000 at a broker offering maximum leverage of 300 to 1, they can trade up to $300,000. At a leverage limit of 30 to 1, that trader will have to deposit their entire $10,000 fund to trade at the same size. In a real sense, that trader might now have to take on more risk to operate in the same way, because if the broker goes bust, while beforehand they might lose $1,000 now they could lose $10,000! Even without negative balance protection, that broker would still have to come after them to try to get an extra $9,000 which they theoretically risk. Yet we saw after the CHF crash that brokers don rsquo;t come after every single client whose losses exceeded their deposit, due to legal costs and reputational issues. This shows that although the stated purpose of the regulation is to protect traders from excessive losses, the story is not as simple as you may think.
Beyond having to deposit more margin, and automatic margin calls, the other major change for traders will be that they will enjoy negative balance protection. This is a positive development which hopefully will make brokerages focus more heavily on the risks they are taking with their business model in the market. At the same time, a possible side effect of the new regulation is the potential increase in average deposits, leading to brokerages being more stable and better capitalized with client funds. Two final notes: brokerages will have to report on their websites the percentages of clients who are losing and making money, although the period over which the statistics must refer to is currently not clear. This will help to shed light on the debate over what percentage of retail traders are profitable, although some brokerages have already released what they claim to be accurate statistics showing that clients with larger account sizes tend to perform better as traders. Additionally, bonuses and promotions will be banned. I welcome this, as not only do they trivialize the serious business of trading, they are almost always a trick offering the illusion of free money whilst preventing traders from withdrawing any profits until a large number of trades are made (read the fine print the next time you squo;).
What If Yoursquo;re Not Happy Remaining in the EU?
Traders with accounts at affected brokers who cannot obtain professional status classification and feel they really need higher leverage than the ESMA limits outlined above might look for a solution by opening accounts with brokers outside the European Union. The most obvious destination would be Australia or New Zealand, where it will still be possible to find reasonably well-regulated Forex brokerages offering leverage in the range of 400 to 1. A recent development that is not talked about much is the growing difficulty of transferring funds to and from Forex brokerages in less tightly regulated jurisdictions. You might decide to open an account with a brokerage in Vanuatu, but you may find that a bank within the European Union might just refuse to send your money there for a deposit. This means that going far offshore, depending upon where you live, may not be a feasible option. In any case, the new regule impossible to live with, and overall there is a compelling case that they are a net benefit to any trader, so why migrate?
Forex Seasonality & the "Year-End Effect" | Trading Forex
Forex seasonality is the term used for the tendencies that certain currencies might have exhibited to move in particular directions at certain times of the calendar year. Are there any seasonal patterns that have influenced Forex markets? For example, if the U.S. dollar shows a tendency statistically to increase in value during the month of March across a sample of many years, then we could say it has a seasonal tendency. Many studies have been done investigating Forex seasonality, although you might wonder whether it is worth it. In this article I am going to look into whether there has been any seasonal behavior of currencies exhibited from a study of the last 36 years of historical data, and explain what any such tendencies might plausibly be caused by. I will conclude by explaining the weaknesses of such studies and question whether these results are valuable and if so, how they might best be utilized by Forex traders as a seasonal forecast in order to make a profit.
Seasonal Forex Tendencies
If we look at a fairly large sample of data, we may be able to identify some seasonal currency behavior. The largest data range available to me was looking at the US Dollar Index and the more major other global currencies against the U.S. Dollar over a period greater than 35 years. Several seasonal tendencies could be identified quite clearly.The U.S. Dollar Index tends to perform strongly in January, and falls in a pronounced manner during the final quarter of the year, in fact from September.
The Euro, British Pound and Swiss Franc behave in a nearly identical manner, and in the mirror image of the U.S. Dollar Index: they perform poorly in January, then rise from September through until the end of the calendar year.
The Japanese Yen rises from August to October. It tends to perform most poorly in January and best in September.
The Canadian Dollar is more erratic, performing most poorly during the months of July and November, and most strongly during June.
Interpreting Forex Seasonal Tendencies
What stands out the most from this review is a “year-end” effect that could be used in a seasonal forecast: the USD falls as the year end approaches, then takes off in January as a new calendar year starts, with the other currencies mostly mirroring this move. Is there a plausible explanation as to why this seasonality should happen? There is, as the end of the calendar year provides an “anchoring bias”, as well as being a key deadline for taxation and reporting. Funds and money managers usually report performance by calendar year, meaning that losers will be trying very hard to win and winners will be trying very hard not to lose more and more as the year end approaches. This could provide fuel for strong trends, and there is an old traders’ saying the December is usually either an awful or wonderful month to make profit in the markets.Taxation issues should not be ignored, as taxation on profits and losses are levied in the U.S.A. and in many other countries on a calendar year basis. As many tax systems allow losses to be written off against profits from a previous year, there can even be a good reason for holders of losing positions to liquidate those positions before the end of December, and then buy them back once January begins, in spite of the transaction cost.
The next area to examine should be whether there is are any seasonal factors that drive the economies of any of the currencies’ countries. Of the currencies reviewed, the only “commodity currency” is the Canadian dollar, which is quite positively correlated with the price of crude oil. However industrial use of crude oil dwarfs any personal consumption, so we could not expect winter to have any seasonality effect, and in fact it does not anyway. I do not see any evidence based upon this study of particular seasonal behavior of currencies.
Methodological Weaknesses
Before getting too excited at the potential advantages of the seasonal effects we have identified in this study, we should question whether or not what we have here is convincing enough to use within a seasonal forecast with confidence. There are a two areas in particular that should concern us:1. The currencies measured, with the exception of the U.S. Dollar Index, have been measured only against the USD, and not as fully weighted baskets against a range of currencies.
2. Although we have looked at more than 35 years of data, it is questionable whether that is enough to give a truly representative and meaningful sample. Most financial statisticians would argue that at least 200 samples are required, and we only have about 35.
Utilizing Seasonality
Seasonality should not be the basis of any trading strategy and I would never make a “seasonal” forecast. However, there is evidence that the end of the calendar year has a tendency to produce directional movement, while the summer months tend towards an absence of such movement. Trend traders can utilize seasonality by putting greater weight on trend trades that occur towards the end of the calendar year, and conversely, putting less size into such trades during the summer months. This can be done without holding to dubious forecasts of exchange rate seasonality.Source
Forex Seasonality & the "Year-End Effect" | Trading Forex
Forex seasonality is the term used for the tendencies that certain currencies might have exhibited to move in particular directions at certain times of the calendar year. Are there any seasonal patterns that have influenced Forex markets? For example, if the U.S. dollar shows a tendency statistically to increase in value during the month of March across a sample of many years, then we could say it has a seasonal tendency. Many studies have been done investigating Forex seasonality, although you might wonder whether it is worth it. In this article I am going to look into whether there has been any seasonal behavior of currencies exhibited from a study of the last 36 years of historical data, and explain what any such tendencies might plausibly be caused by. I will conclude by explaining the weaknesses of such studies and question whether these results are valuable and if so, how they might best be utilized by Forex traders as a seasonal forecast in order to make a profit.
Seasonal Forex Tendencies
If we look at a fairly large sample of data, we may be able to identify some seasonal currency behavior. The largest data range available to me was looking at the US Dollar Index and the more major other global currencies against the U.S. Dollar over a period greater than 35 years. Several seasonal tendencies could be identified quite clearly.The U.S. Dollar Index tends to perform strongly in January, and falls in a pronounced manner during the final quarter of the year, in fact from September.
The Euro, British Pound and Swiss Franc behave in a nearly identical manner, and in the mirror image of the U.S. Dollar Index: they perform poorly in January, then rise from September through until the end of the calendar year.
The Japanese Yen rises from August to October. It tends to perform most poorly in January and best in September.
The Canadian Dollar is more erratic, performing most poorly during the months of July and November, and most strongly during June.
Interpreting Forex Seasonal Tendencies
What stands out the most from this review is a “year-end” effect that could be used in a seasonal forecast: the USD falls as the year end approaches, then takes off in January as a new calendar year starts, with the other currencies mostly mirroring this move. Is there a plausible explanation as to why this seasonality should happen? There is, as the end of the calendar year provides an “anchoring bias”, as well as being a key deadline for taxation and reporting. Funds and money managers usually report performance by calendar year, meaning that losers will be trying very hard to win and winners will be trying very hard not to lose more and more as the year end approaches. This could provide fuel for strong trends, and there is an old traders’ saying the December is usually either an awful or wonderful month to make profit in the markets.Taxation issues should not be ignored, as taxation on profits and losses are levied in the U.S.A. and in many other countries on a calendar year basis. As many tax systems allow losses to be written off against profits from a previous year, there can even be a good reason for holders of losing positions to liquidate those positions before the end of December, and then buy them back once January begins, in spite of the transaction cost.
The next area to examine should be whether there is are any seasonal factors that drive the economies of any of the currencies’ countries. Of the currencies reviewed, the only “commodity currency” is the Canadian dollar, which is quite positively correlated with the price of crude oil. However industrial use of crude oil dwarfs any personal consumption, so we could not expect winter to have any seasonality effect, and in fact it does not anyway. I do not see any evidence based upon this study of particular seasonal behavior of currencies.
Methodological Weaknesses
Before getting too excited at the potential advantages of the seasonal effects we have identified in this study, we should question whether or not what we have here is convincing enough to use within a seasonal forecast with confidence. There are a two areas in particular that should concern us:1. The currencies measured, with the exception of the U.S. Dollar Index, have been measured only against the USD, and not as fully weighted baskets against a range of currencies.
2. Although we have looked at more than 35 years of data, it is questionable whether that is enough to give a truly representative and meaningful sample. Most financial statisticians would argue that at least 200 samples are required, and we only have about 35.
Utilizing Seasonality
Seasonality should not be the basis of any trading strategy and I would never make a “seasonal” forecast. However, there is evidence that the end of the calendar year has a tendency to produce directional movement, while the summer months tend towards an absence of such movement. Trend traders can utilize seasonality by putting greater weight on trend trades that occur towards the end of the calendar year, and conversely, putting less size into such trades during the summer months. This can be done without holding to dubious forecasts of exchange rate seasonality.Source
Forex Seasonality & the "Year-End Effect" | Trading Forex
Forex seasonality is the term used for the tendencies that certain currencies might have exhibited to move in particular directions at certain times of the calendar year. Are there any seasonal patterns that have influenced Forex markets? For example, if the U.S. dollar shows a tendency statistically to increase in value during the month of March across a sample of many years, then we could say it has a seasonal tendency. Many studies have been done investigating Forex seasonality, although you might wonder whether it is worth it. In this article I am going to look into whether there has been any seasonal behavior of currencies exhibited from a study of the last 36 years of historical data, and explain what any such tendencies might plausibly be caused by. I will conclude by explaining the weaknesses of such studies and question whether these results are valuable and if so, how they might best be utilized by Forex traders as a seasonal forecast in order to make a profit.
Seasonal Forex Tendencies
If we look at a fairly large sample of data, we may be able to identify some seasonal currency behavior. The largest data range available to me was looking at the US Dollar Index and the more major other global currencies against the U.S. Dollar over a period greater than 35 years. Several seasonal tendencies could be identified quite clearly.The U.S. Dollar Index tends to perform strongly in January, and falls in a pronounced manner during the final quarter of the year, in fact from September.
The Euro, British Pound and Swiss Franc behave in a nearly identical manner, and in the mirror image of the U.S. Dollar Index: they perform poorly in January, then rise from September through until the end of the calendar year.
The Japanese Yen rises from August to October. It tends to perform most poorly in January and best in September.
The Canadian Dollar is more erratic, performing most poorly during the months of July and November, and most strongly during June.
Interpreting Forex Seasonal Tendencies
What stands out the most from this review is a “year-end” effect that could be used in a seasonal forecast: the USD falls as the year end approaches, then takes off in January as a new calendar year starts, with the other currencies mostly mirroring this move. Is there a plausible explanation as to why this seasonality should happen? There is, as the end of the calendar year provides an “anchoring bias”, as well as being a key deadline for taxation and reporting. Funds and money managers usually report performance by calendar year, meaning that losers will be trying very hard to win and winners will be trying very hard not to lose more and more as the year end approaches. This could provide fuel for strong trends, and there is an old traders’ saying the December is usually either an awful or wonderful month to make profit in the markets.Taxation issues should not be ignored, as taxation on profits and losses are levied in the U.S.A. and in many other countries on a calendar year basis. As many tax systems allow losses to be written off against profits from a previous year, there can even be a good reason for holders of losing positions to liquidate those positions before the end of December, and then buy them back once January begins, in spite of the transaction cost.
The next area to examine should be whether there is are any seasonal factors that drive the economies of any of the currencies’ countries. Of the currencies reviewed, the only “commodity currency” is the Canadian dollar, which is quite positively correlated with the price of crude oil. However industrial use of crude oil dwarfs any personal consumption, so we could not expect winter to have any seasonality effect, and in fact it does not anyway. I do not see any evidence based upon this study of particular seasonal behavior of currencies.
Methodological Weaknesses
Before getting too excited at the potential advantages of the seasonal effects we have identified in this study, we should question whether or not what we have here is convincing enough to use within a seasonal forecast with confidence. There are a two areas in particular that should concern us:1. The currencies measured, with the exception of the U.S. Dollar Index, have been measured only against the USD, and not as fully weighted baskets against a range of currencies.
2. Although we have looked at more than 35 years of data, it is questionable whether that is enough to give a truly representative and meaningful sample. Most financial statisticians would argue that at least 200 samples are required, and we only have about 35.
Utilizing Seasonality
Seasonality should not be the basis of any trading strategy and I would never make a “seasonal” forecast. However, there is evidence that the end of the calendar year has a tendency to produce directional movement, while the summer months tend towards an absence of such movement. Trend traders can utilize seasonality by putting greater weight on trend trades that occur towards the end of the calendar year, and conversely, putting less size into such trades during the summer months. This can be done without holding to dubious forecasts of exchange rate seasonality.Source
Forex Seasonality & the "Year-End Effect" | Trading Forex
Forex seasonality is the term used for the tendencies that certain currencies might have exhibited to move in particular directions at certain times of the calendar year. Are there any seasonal patterns that have influenced Forex markets? For example, if the U.S. dollar shows a tendency statistically to increase in value during the month of March across a sample of many years, then we could say it has a seasonal tendency. Many studies have been done investigating Forex seasonality, although you might wonder whether it is worth it. In this article I am going to look into whether there has been any seasonal behavior of currencies exhibited from a study of the last 36 years of historical data, and explain what any such tendencies might plausibly be caused by. I will conclude by explaining the weaknesses of such studies and question whether these results are valuable and if so, how they might best be utilized by Forex traders as a seasonal forecast in order to make a profit.
Seasonal Forex Tendencies
If we look at a fairly large sample of data, we may be able to identify some seasonal currency behavior. The largest data range available to me was looking at the US Dollar Index and the more major other global currencies against the U.S. Dollar over a period greater than 35 years. Several seasonal tendencies could be identified quite clearly.The U.S. Dollar Index tends to perform strongly in January, and falls in a pronounced manner during the final quarter of the year, in fact from September.
The Euro, British Pound and Swiss Franc behave in a nearly identical manner, and in the mirror image of the U.S. Dollar Index: they perform poorly in January, then rise from September through until the end of the calendar year.
The Japanese Yen rises from August to October. It tends to perform most poorly in January and best in September.
The Canadian Dollar is more erratic, performing most poorly during the months of July and November, and most strongly during June.
Interpreting Forex Seasonal Tendencies
What stands out the most from this review is a “year-end” effect that could be used in a seasonal forecast: the USD falls as the year end approaches, then takes off in January as a new calendar year starts, with the other currencies mostly mirroring this move. Is there a plausible explanation as to why this seasonality should happen? There is, as the end of the calendar year provides an “anchoring bias”, as well as being a key deadline for taxation and reporting. Funds and money managers usually report performance by calendar year, meaning that losers will be trying very hard to win and winners will be trying very hard not to lose more and more as the year end approaches. This could provide fuel for strong trends, and there is an old traders’ saying the December is usually either an awful or wonderful month to make profit in the markets.Taxation issues should not be ignored, as taxation on profits and losses are levied in the U.S.A. and in many other countries on a calendar year basis. As many tax systems allow losses to be written off against profits from a previous year, there can even be a good reason for holders of losing positions to liquidate those positions before the end of December, and then buy them back once January begins, in spite of the transaction cost.
The next area to examine should be whether there is are any seasonal factors that drive the economies of any of the currencies’ countries. Of the currencies reviewed, the only “commodity currency” is the Canadian dollar, which is quite positively correlated with the price of crude oil. However industrial use of crude oil dwarfs any personal consumption, so we could not expect winter to have any seasonality effect, and in fact it does not anyway. I do not see any evidence based upon this study of particular seasonal behavior of currencies.
Methodological Weaknesses
Before getting too excited at the potential advantages of the seasonal effects we have identified in this study, we should question whether or not what we have here is convincing enough to use within a seasonal forecast with confidence. There are a two areas in particular that should concern us:1. The currencies measured, with the exception of the U.S. Dollar Index, have been measured only against the USD, and not as fully weighted baskets against a range of currencies.
2. Although we have looked at more than 35 years of data, it is questionable whether that is enough to give a truly representative and meaningful sample. Most financial statisticians would argue that at least 200 samples are required, and we only have about 35.
Utilizing Seasonality
Seasonality should not be the basis of any trading strategy and I would never make a “seasonal” forecast. However, there is evidence that the end of the calendar year has a tendency to produce directional movement, while the summer months tend towards an absence of such movement. Trend traders can utilize seasonality by putting greater weight on trend trades that occur towards the end of the calendar year, and conversely, putting less size into such trades during the summer months. This can be done without holding to dubious forecasts of exchange rate seasonality.Source
Forex Seasonality & the "Year-End Effect" | Trading Forex
Forex seasonality is the term used for the tendencies that certain currencies might have exhibited to move in particular directions at certain times of the calendar year. Are there any seasonal patterns that have influenced Forex markets? For example, if the U.S. dollar shows a tendency statistically to increase in value during the month of March across a sample of many years, then we could say it has a seasonal tendency. Many studies have been done investigating Forex seasonality, although you might wonder whether it is worth it. In this article I am going to look into whether there has been any seasonal behavior of currencies exhibited from a study of the last 36 years of historical data, and explain what any such tendencies might plausibly be caused by. I will conclude by explaining the weaknesses of such studies and question whether these results are valuable and if so, how they might best be utilized by Forex traders as a seasonal forecast in order to make a profit.
Seasonal Forex Tendencies
If we look at a fairly large sample of data, we may be able to identify some seasonal currency behavior. The largest data range available to me was looking at the US Dollar Index and the more major other global currencies against the U.S. Dollar over a period greater than 35 years. Several seasonal tendencies could be identified quite clearly.The U.S. Dollar Index tends to perform strongly in January, and falls in a pronounced manner during the final quarter of the year, in fact from September.
The Euro, British Pound and Swiss Franc behave in a nearly identical manner, and in the mirror image of the U.S. Dollar Index: they perform poorly in January, then rise from September through until the end of the calendar year.
The Japanese Yen rises from August to October. It tends to perform most poorly in January and best in September.
The Canadian Dollar is more erratic, performing most poorly during the months of July and November, and most strongly during June.
Interpreting Forex Seasonal Tendencies
What stands out the most from this review is a “year-end” effect that could be used in a seasonal forecast: the USD falls as the year end approaches, then takes off in January as a new calendar year starts, with the other currencies mostly mirroring this move. Is there a plausible explanation as to why this seasonality should happen? There is, as the end of the calendar year provides an “anchoring bias”, as well as being a key deadline for taxation and reporting. Funds and money managers usually report performance by calendar year, meaning that losers will be trying very hard to win and winners will be trying very hard not to lose more and more as the year end approaches. This could provide fuel for strong trends, and there is an old traders’ saying the December is usually either an awful or wonderful month to make profit in the markets.Taxation issues should not be ignored, as taxation on profits and losses are levied in the U.S.A. and in many other countries on a calendar year basis. As many tax systems allow losses to be written off against profits from a previous year, there can even be a good reason for holders of losing positions to liquidate those positions before the end of December, and then buy them back once January begins, in spite of the transaction cost.
The next area to examine should be whether there is are any seasonal factors that drive the economies of any of the currencies’ countries. Of the currencies reviewed, the only “commodity currency” is the Canadian dollar, which is quite positively correlated with the price of crude oil. However industrial use of crude oil dwarfs any personal consumption, so we could not expect winter to have any seasonality effect, and in fact it does not anyway. I do not see any evidence based upon this study of particular seasonal behavior of currencies.
Methodological Weaknesses
Before getting too excited at the potential advantages of the seasonal effects we have identified in this study, we should question whether or not what we have here is convincing enough to use within a seasonal forecast with confidence. There are a two areas in particular that should concern us:1. The currencies measured, with the exception of the U.S. Dollar Index, have been measured only against the USD, and not as fully weighted baskets against a range of currencies.
2. Although we have looked at more than 35 years of data, it is questionable whether that is enough to give a truly representative and meaningful sample. Most financial statisticians would argue that at least 200 samples are required, and we only have about 35.
Utilizing Seasonality
Seasonality should not be the basis of any trading strategy and I would never make a “seasonal” forecast. However, there is evidence that the end of the calendar year has a tendency to produce directional movement, while the summer months tend towards an absence of such movement. Trend traders can utilize seasonality by putting greater weight on trend trades that occur towards the end of the calendar year, and conversely, putting less size into such trades during the summer months. This can be done without holding to dubious forecasts of exchange rate seasonality.Source
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