ESMA Regulations – What Will Less Leverage Mean? | Trading Forex
The European Union has published new regulations applying to retail Forex, CFD, and the few remaining binary options brokerages in its territory. If you have an account with one such brokerage, the regulations will affect you when they come into force during the late spring and summer. This article will outline how the new regulations will impact your bottom line.
Details of the New ESMA Regulations
In March 2018, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the financial regulator and supervisor of the European Union, announced new regulations concerning the provision of contracts for differences (CFDs) and binary options to retail investors. It is unclear exactly when the regulations will come into force, but some time in May or June 2018 looks to be the most likely date, and Forex and CFD brokerages located within the European Union (including the United Kingdom, for the time being) will be forced to comply. The regulations will need to be renewed by ESMA every three months to remain in force over the long term.
The regulation concerning binary options is very simple: they may not be sold. In simple terms, this is the end of binary options as a product sold from within the European Union.
The regulations concerning CFDs are more complex but still relatively straightforward. Firstly, there is some confusion as to what exactly is a CFD, with many traders thinking that spot Forex is not considered a CFD and will therefore be exempt from the new regulations. They are wrong: spot Forex is technically defined as a CFD. In fact, every asset you see available for trading at Forex / CFD brokers will most likely be subject to the new regulations.
The new regulations will implement the following changes for retail client accounts (more on who is a retail client; later).
-
The maximum leverage which can be offered will be 30 to 1. That will apply to major currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, etc.
-
Other currency pairs, major equity indices, and gold will be subject to a maximum leverage of 20 to 1.
-
Individual equities cannot be offered with leverage greater than 5 to 1.
-
Cryptocurrencies are subject to a maximum leverage of 2 to 1.
-
Brokers will be required to provide negative balance protection, meaning it will be impossible to lose more money than you deposit.
-
Brokers will be required to close a clients open positions when the account equity reaches 50% of the required minimum margin by all open positions. This ;margin call; provision can be tricky to understand, so will be explained in more detail later.
-
Bonuses or any other form of trading incentives may not be offered.
-
Brokers will be required to display a standardized risk warning which will include the percentage of their clients who lose money over a defined period.
Understanding the ;Margin Call; Regulation
The best way to understand the 50% margin call provision is to use an example. Imagine a client opens an account with a Forex broker, depositing ;100 in total. The client opens a short trade in EUR/USD, by going short one mini-lot (one tenth of a full lot). One full lot of EUR/USD is worth ;10,000, meaning one mini-lot is worth ;1,000. To find out the minimum margin required to support that trade, we divide the size of the trade (;1,000) by 30, which comes to ;33.33. This is the minimum required margin to maintain the trade. Half of that amount is ;16.67. Now assume the trade goes against the client, with the price of EUR/USD rising above the entry price. As soon as the price rises far enough to produce a floating loss of ;83.33 (;100 - ;16.67), the broker must close the trade out, even if the trade has no stop loss or has not yet reached the stop loss. In theory, this means that a client;s account can never reach zero. Examples involving multiple open trades will be more complex, but will operate according to the same principles.
What Will This Mean for Traders?
The regulations will only apply to ;retail clients;, so you might try to apply to be classed as a professional trader. To get a broker to classify you as anything other than a retail client, you will have to show you have financial qualifications, a large amount of liquid assets, plenty of experience trading, and usually that you also trade frequently. Most traders will be unable to qualify, although it is worth noting that one London-based brokerage, IG Group, has stated that their proportion of clients now classified as recently increased from 5% to 15% of their total customers.
The major impact these regulations will have on traders is simple ndash; the maximum trade size they can possibly make at brokers regulated in the European Union will shrink. Many will say that the maximum leverage limits still offer far more than any trader could need, and I agree. I am wary of leverage and I hate to see anyone using leverage greater than 3 to 1 for Forex under any conditions, or any leverage at all for stocks and cryptocurrencies. Commodities can also fluctuate wildly in value. Too many people forget that the biggest danger in leverage is not overly large position sizing, it is that a ldquo;black swan rdquo; event such as the CHF flash crash of 2015 could happen and wipe out your account through huge price slippage. However, there is another factor that is widely forgotten: why assume that a trader rsquo;s account at one Forex broker is all the money they have in the world? For example, a trader might have $10,000 in the bank. If they deposit $1,000 at a broker offering maximum leverage of 300 to 1, they can trade up to $300,000. At a leverage limit of 30 to 1, that trader will have to deposit their entire $10,000 fund to trade at the same size. In a real sense, that trader might now have to take on more risk to operate in the same way, because if the broker goes bust, while beforehand they might lose $1,000 now they could lose $10,000! Even without negative balance protection, that broker would still have to come after them to try to get an extra $9,000 which they theoretically risk. Yet we saw after the CHF crash that brokers don rsquo;t come after every single client whose losses exceeded their deposit, due to legal costs and reputational issues. This shows that although the stated purpose of the regulation is to protect traders from excessive losses, the story is not as simple as you may think.
Beyond having to deposit more margin, and automatic margin calls, the other major change for traders will be that they will enjoy negative balance protection. This is a positive development which hopefully will make brokerages focus more heavily on the risks they are taking with their business model in the market. At the same time, a possible side effect of the new regulation is the potential increase in average deposits, leading to brokerages being more stable and better capitalized with client funds. Two final notes: brokerages will have to report on their websites the percentages of clients who are losing and making money, although the period over which the statistics must refer to is currently not clear. This will help to shed light on the debate over what percentage of retail traders are profitable, although some brokerages have already released what they claim to be accurate statistics showing that clients with larger account sizes tend to perform better as traders. Additionally, bonuses and promotions will be banned. I welcome this, as not only do they trivialize the serious business of trading, they are almost always a trick offering the illusion of free money whilst preventing traders from withdrawing any profits until a large number of trades are made (read the fine print the next time you squo;).
What If Yoursquo;re Not Happy Remaining in the EU?
Traders with accounts at affected brokers who cannot obtain professional status classification and feel they really need higher leverage than the ESMA limits outlined above might look for a solution by opening accounts with brokers outside the European Union. The most obvious destination would be Australia or New Zealand, where it will still be possible to find reasonably well-regulated Forex brokerages offering leverage in the range of 400 to 1. A recent development that is not talked about much is the growing difficulty of transferring funds to and from Forex brokerages in less tightly regulated jurisdictions. You might decide to open an account with a brokerage in Vanuatu, but you may find that a bank within the European Union might just refuse to send your money there for a deposit. This means that going far offshore, depending upon where you live, may not be a feasible option. In any case, the new regule impossible to live with, and overall there is a compelling case that they are a net benefit to any trader, so why migrate?
Trading Forex with the Asian Range | Trading Forex
The hours from the time London opens for business until New York closes are widely regarded as the best time to trade Forex, and with good reason. It is during these hours that the Forex markets usually experience the highest liquidity, i.e. the highest volume of trading. High volume usually correlates positively with a high amount of price movement, which gives the retail Forex trader a chance to make money through directional trading. This means going long or short of Forex currency pairs and hoping to exit with a profit.
It is possible to trade Forex profitably by using either technical or fundamental analysis, or a combination of both. A common mistake made by many Forex traders is overcomplicating technical analysis. For example, the simple fact that the price is higher than it was a few months ago is probably going to be more significant and reliable than the exact value calculated by some fancy complicated indicator.
If you are interested in using technical analysis to trade Forex and you like to start your trading at around 8am London time, there are some very simple methods you can use to forecast the probable direction and strength of two major currency pairs – EUR/USD and GBP/USD - just by taking a quick look at the Asian range.
What is the “Asian Range”?
The “Asian Range” is not a concept that I invented. It is usually meant to refer to the high and low prices made by a currency pair from the time that Tokyo opens for business until London opens. Technically speaking, the Asian session runs a little beyond the time London opens as Tokyo stays open for an hour or so after that.There are a few well-known trading strategies based upon a currency pair’s Asian range. The most well-known is probably trading the first breakout of the Asian Range, followed by using the highs and lows as key resistance and support, or trading reversals from fake breakouts. I am not convinced these strategies necessarily show reliable edges, but it can be shown that over recent years we can use the Asian Range to give a predictive edge as to what is probably going to happen between the London open and the New York close, just using a simple measure of how the price has changed during the Asian session, rather than looking at the highs and lows as is traditionally the case.
Asian Session Statistics
The methodology we can use is quite simple, and I can illustrate that by using the last five years of data regarding two currency pairs: EUR/USD and GBP/USD.The concept is that at either 8am or 9am London time, we look to see how much the price has changed since midnight London time, which corresponds to the start of the Tokyo session which is the center of Asian Forex business. Very simply, if the price is up already, there is a higher probability that the price will end the New York session up even further, and vice versa if the price is down.
This seems very simple and too good to be true, but it is borne out by the statistics of the previous 5 years. It is not enough to say that the price must be up or down, we need a minimum filter for this move to be significant. It seems that the amount of 0.15% works quite well, and taking 9am London time works better than taking 8am London time as the end measuring point for the Asian price change.
Best Results
The best results for both pairs were achieved by taking the days where at 9am London time, the price had either risen since Midnight by more than 0.15% and less than 0.30% - in which case we can expect that New York will probably close higher – or fallen between the same amounts, in which case we can expect New York to close lower.The statistics are as follows for these parameters:
What these statistics mean is that if at 9am London time the price has moved between 0.15% and 0.30% since Midnight, then about 57% of the time by the end of the day in New York it will have moved further in the same direction. The average move will be about 0.12%. This could be traded profitably simply by going long or short at 9am if the conditions or right, or it can be used as a model to tell you when to day trade currency pairs and in which direction.
The equity curves for each pair shown below are sample and not time-based, i.e. a value is only shown where there is a trade. However it can be seen that both of the equity curves look fairly robust and healthy, especially the for the GBP/USD currency pair:
Strange but True
It is natural to think some extra conditions can be added to improve the results, for example only taking the signals that are in the same direction as the longer-term trend. In fact, adding this condition would not have improved the results significantly.Something to watch out for: during periods of wild market volatility – such as were seen from 2007 to 2009 – the strategy does not perform well, so it best to forget about this strategy during such conditions.
Finally, do not try to trade this strategy with other Forex currency pairs: it does not work, not even with the USD/CHF which as a European currency pair, you would expect to behave similarly to EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Source
Trading Forex with the Asian Range | Trading Forex
The hours from the time London opens for business until New York closes are widely regarded as the best time to trade Forex, and with good reason. It is during these hours that the Forex markets usually experience the highest liquidity, i.e. the highest volume of trading. High volume usually correlates positively with a high amount of price movement, which gives the retail Forex trader a chance to make money through directional trading. This means going long or short of Forex currency pairs and hoping to exit with a profit.
It is possible to trade Forex profitably by using either technical or fundamental analysis, or a combination of both. A common mistake made by many Forex traders is overcomplicating technical analysis. For example, the simple fact that the price is higher than it was a few months ago is probably going to be more significant and reliable than the exact value calculated by some fancy complicated indicator.
If you are interested in using technical analysis to trade Forex and you like to start your trading at around 8am London time, there are some very simple methods you can use to forecast the probable direction and strength of two major currency pairs – EUR/USD and GBP/USD - just by taking a quick look at the Asian range.
What is the “Asian Range”?
The “Asian Range” is not a concept that I invented. It is usually meant to refer to the high and low prices made by a currency pair from the time that Tokyo opens for business until London opens. Technically speaking, the Asian session runs a little beyond the time London opens as Tokyo stays open for an hour or so after that.There are a few well-known trading strategies based upon a currency pair’s Asian range. The most well-known is probably trading the first breakout of the Asian Range, followed by using the highs and lows as key resistance and support, or trading reversals from fake breakouts. I am not convinced these strategies necessarily show reliable edges, but it can be shown that over recent years we can use the Asian Range to give a predictive edge as to what is probably going to happen between the London open and the New York close, just using a simple measure of how the price has changed during the Asian session, rather than looking at the highs and lows as is traditionally the case.
Asian Session Statistics
The methodology we can use is quite simple, and I can illustrate that by using the last five years of data regarding two currency pairs: EUR/USD and GBP/USD.The concept is that at either 8am or 9am London time, we look to see how much the price has changed since midnight London time, which corresponds to the start of the Tokyo session which is the center of Asian Forex business. Very simply, if the price is up already, there is a higher probability that the price will end the New York session up even further, and vice versa if the price is down.
This seems very simple and too good to be true, but it is borne out by the statistics of the previous 5 years. It is not enough to say that the price must be up or down, we need a minimum filter for this move to be significant. It seems that the amount of 0.15% works quite well, and taking 9am London time works better than taking 8am London time as the end measuring point for the Asian price change.
Best Results
The best results for both pairs were achieved by taking the days where at 9am London time, the price had either risen since Midnight by more than 0.15% and less than 0.30% - in which case we can expect that New York will probably close higher – or fallen between the same amounts, in which case we can expect New York to close lower.The statistics are as follows for these parameters:
What these statistics mean is that if at 9am London time the price has moved between 0.15% and 0.30% since Midnight, then about 57% of the time by the end of the day in New York it will have moved further in the same direction. The average move will be about 0.12%. This could be traded profitably simply by going long or short at 9am if the conditions or right, or it can be used as a model to tell you when to day trade currency pairs and in which direction.
The equity curves for each pair shown below are sample and not time-based, i.e. a value is only shown where there is a trade. However it can be seen that both of the equity curves look fairly robust and healthy, especially the for the GBP/USD currency pair:
Strange but True
It is natural to think some extra conditions can be added to improve the results, for example only taking the signals that are in the same direction as the longer-term trend. In fact, adding this condition would not have improved the results significantly.Something to watch out for: during periods of wild market volatility – such as were seen from 2007 to 2009 – the strategy does not perform well, so it best to forget about this strategy during such conditions.
Finally, do not try to trade this strategy with other Forex currency pairs: it does not work, not even with the USD/CHF which as a European currency pair, you would expect to behave similarly to EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Source
Trading Forex with the Asian Range | Trading Forex
The hours from the time London opens for business until New York closes are widely regarded as the best time to trade Forex, and with good reason. It is during these hours that the Forex markets usually experience the highest liquidity, i.e. the highest volume of trading. High volume usually correlates positively with a high amount of price movement, which gives the retail Forex trader a chance to make money through directional trading. This means going long or short of Forex currency pairs and hoping to exit with a profit.
It is possible to trade Forex profitably by using either technical or fundamental analysis, or a combination of both. A common mistake made by many Forex traders is overcomplicating technical analysis. For example, the simple fact that the price is higher than it was a few months ago is probably going to be more significant and reliable than the exact value calculated by some fancy complicated indicator.
If you are interested in using technical analysis to trade Forex and you like to start your trading at around 8am London time, there are some very simple methods you can use to forecast the probable direction and strength of two major currency pairs – EUR/USD and GBP/USD - just by taking a quick look at the Asian range.
What is the “Asian Range”?
The “Asian Range” is not a concept that I invented. It is usually meant to refer to the high and low prices made by a currency pair from the time that Tokyo opens for business until London opens. Technically speaking, the Asian session runs a little beyond the time London opens as Tokyo stays open for an hour or so after that.There are a few well-known trading strategies based upon a currency pair’s Asian range. The most well-known is probably trading the first breakout of the Asian Range, followed by using the highs and lows as key resistance and support, or trading reversals from fake breakouts. I am not convinced these strategies necessarily show reliable edges, but it can be shown that over recent years we can use the Asian Range to give a predictive edge as to what is probably going to happen between the London open and the New York close, just using a simple measure of how the price has changed during the Asian session, rather than looking at the highs and lows as is traditionally the case.
Asian Session Statistics
The methodology we can use is quite simple, and I can illustrate that by using the last five years of data regarding two currency pairs: EUR/USD and GBP/USD.The concept is that at either 8am or 9am London time, we look to see how much the price has changed since midnight London time, which corresponds to the start of the Tokyo session which is the center of Asian Forex business. Very simply, if the price is up already, there is a higher probability that the price will end the New York session up even further, and vice versa if the price is down.
This seems very simple and too good to be true, but it is borne out by the statistics of the previous 5 years. It is not enough to say that the price must be up or down, we need a minimum filter for this move to be significant. It seems that the amount of 0.15% works quite well, and taking 9am London time works better than taking 8am London time as the end measuring point for the Asian price change.
Best Results
The best results for both pairs were achieved by taking the days where at 9am London time, the price had either risen since Midnight by more than 0.15% and less than 0.30% - in which case we can expect that New York will probably close higher – or fallen between the same amounts, in which case we can expect New York to close lower.The statistics are as follows for these parameters:
What these statistics mean is that if at 9am London time the price has moved between 0.15% and 0.30% since Midnight, then about 57% of the time by the end of the day in New York it will have moved further in the same direction. The average move will be about 0.12%. This could be traded profitably simply by going long or short at 9am if the conditions or right, or it can be used as a model to tell you when to day trade currency pairs and in which direction.
The equity curves for each pair shown below are sample and not time-based, i.e. a value is only shown where there is a trade. However it can be seen that both of the equity curves look fairly robust and healthy, especially the for the GBP/USD currency pair:
Strange but True
It is natural to think some extra conditions can be added to improve the results, for example only taking the signals that are in the same direction as the longer-term trend. In fact, adding this condition would not have improved the results significantly.Something to watch out for: during periods of wild market volatility – such as were seen from 2007 to 2009 – the strategy does not perform well, so it best to forget about this strategy during such conditions.
Finally, do not try to trade this strategy with other Forex currency pairs: it does not work, not even with the USD/CHF which as a European currency pair, you would expect to behave similarly to EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Source
Trading Forex with the Asian Range | Trading Forex
The hours from the time London opens for business until New York closes are widely regarded as the best time to trade Forex, and with good reason. It is during these hours that the Forex markets usually experience the highest liquidity, i.e. the highest volume of trading. High volume usually correlates positively with a high amount of price movement, which gives the retail Forex trader a chance to make money through directional trading. This means going long or short of Forex currency pairs and hoping to exit with a profit.
It is possible to trade Forex profitably by using either technical or fundamental analysis, or a combination of both. A common mistake made by many Forex traders is overcomplicating technical analysis. For example, the simple fact that the price is higher than it was a few months ago is probably going to be more significant and reliable than the exact value calculated by some fancy complicated indicator.
If you are interested in using technical analysis to trade Forex and you like to start your trading at around 8am London time, there are some very simple methods you can use to forecast the probable direction and strength of two major currency pairs – EUR/USD and GBP/USD - just by taking a quick look at the Asian range.
What is the “Asian Range”?
The “Asian Range” is not a concept that I invented. It is usually meant to refer to the high and low prices made by a currency pair from the time that Tokyo opens for business until London opens. Technically speaking, the Asian session runs a little beyond the time London opens as Tokyo stays open for an hour or so after that.There are a few well-known trading strategies based upon a currency pair’s Asian range. The most well-known is probably trading the first breakout of the Asian Range, followed by using the highs and lows as key resistance and support, or trading reversals from fake breakouts. I am not convinced these strategies necessarily show reliable edges, but it can be shown that over recent years we can use the Asian Range to give a predictive edge as to what is probably going to happen between the London open and the New York close, just using a simple measure of how the price has changed during the Asian session, rather than looking at the highs and lows as is traditionally the case.
Asian Session Statistics
The methodology we can use is quite simple, and I can illustrate that by using the last five years of data regarding two currency pairs: EUR/USD and GBP/USD.The concept is that at either 8am or 9am London time, we look to see how much the price has changed since midnight London time, which corresponds to the start of the Tokyo session which is the center of Asian Forex business. Very simply, if the price is up already, there is a higher probability that the price will end the New York session up even further, and vice versa if the price is down.
This seems very simple and too good to be true, but it is borne out by the statistics of the previous 5 years. It is not enough to say that the price must be up or down, we need a minimum filter for this move to be significant. It seems that the amount of 0.15% works quite well, and taking 9am London time works better than taking 8am London time as the end measuring point for the Asian price change.
Best Results
The best results for both pairs were achieved by taking the days where at 9am London time, the price had either risen since Midnight by more than 0.15% and less than 0.30% - in which case we can expect that New York will probably close higher – or fallen between the same amounts, in which case we can expect New York to close lower.The statistics are as follows for these parameters:
What these statistics mean is that if at 9am London time the price has moved between 0.15% and 0.30% since Midnight, then about 57% of the time by the end of the day in New York it will have moved further in the same direction. The average move will be about 0.12%. This could be traded profitably simply by going long or short at 9am if the conditions or right, or it can be used as a model to tell you when to day trade currency pairs and in which direction.
The equity curves for each pair shown below are sample and not time-based, i.e. a value is only shown where there is a trade. However it can be seen that both of the equity curves look fairly robust and healthy, especially the for the GBP/USD currency pair:
Strange but True
It is natural to think some extra conditions can be added to improve the results, for example only taking the signals that are in the same direction as the longer-term trend. In fact, adding this condition would not have improved the results significantly.Something to watch out for: during periods of wild market volatility – such as were seen from 2007 to 2009 – the strategy does not perform well, so it best to forget about this strategy during such conditions.
Finally, do not try to trade this strategy with other Forex currency pairs: it does not work, not even with the USD/CHF which as a European currency pair, you would expect to behave similarly to EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Source
Trading Forex with the Asian Range | Trading Forex
The hours from the time London opens for business until New York closes are widely regarded as the best time to trade Forex, and with good reason. It is during these hours that the Forex markets usually experience the highest liquidity, i.e. the highest volume of trading. High volume usually correlates positively with a high amount of price movement, which gives the retail Forex trader a chance to make money through directional trading. This means going long or short of Forex currency pairs and hoping to exit with a profit.
It is possible to trade Forex profitably by using either technical or fundamental analysis, or a combination of both. A common mistake made by many Forex traders is overcomplicating technical analysis. For example, the simple fact that the price is higher than it was a few months ago is probably going to be more significant and reliable than the exact value calculated by some fancy complicated indicator.
If you are interested in using technical analysis to trade Forex and you like to start your trading at around 8am London time, there are some very simple methods you can use to forecast the probable direction and strength of two major currency pairs – EUR/USD and GBP/USD - just by taking a quick look at the Asian range.
What is the “Asian Range”?
The “Asian Range” is not a concept that I invented. It is usually meant to refer to the high and low prices made by a currency pair from the time that Tokyo opens for business until London opens. Technically speaking, the Asian session runs a little beyond the time London opens as Tokyo stays open for an hour or so after that.There are a few well-known trading strategies based upon a currency pair’s Asian range. The most well-known is probably trading the first breakout of the Asian Range, followed by using the highs and lows as key resistance and support, or trading reversals from fake breakouts. I am not convinced these strategies necessarily show reliable edges, but it can be shown that over recent years we can use the Asian Range to give a predictive edge as to what is probably going to happen between the London open and the New York close, just using a simple measure of how the price has changed during the Asian session, rather than looking at the highs and lows as is traditionally the case.
Asian Session Statistics
The methodology we can use is quite simple, and I can illustrate that by using the last five years of data regarding two currency pairs: EUR/USD and GBP/USD.The concept is that at either 8am or 9am London time, we look to see how much the price has changed since midnight London time, which corresponds to the start of the Tokyo session which is the center of Asian Forex business. Very simply, if the price is up already, there is a higher probability that the price will end the New York session up even further, and vice versa if the price is down.
This seems very simple and too good to be true, but it is borne out by the statistics of the previous 5 years. It is not enough to say that the price must be up or down, we need a minimum filter for this move to be significant. It seems that the amount of 0.15% works quite well, and taking 9am London time works better than taking 8am London time as the end measuring point for the Asian price change.
Best Results
The best results for both pairs were achieved by taking the days where at 9am London time, the price had either risen since Midnight by more than 0.15% and less than 0.30% - in which case we can expect that New York will probably close higher – or fallen between the same amounts, in which case we can expect New York to close lower.The statistics are as follows for these parameters:
What these statistics mean is that if at 9am London time the price has moved between 0.15% and 0.30% since Midnight, then about 57% of the time by the end of the day in New York it will have moved further in the same direction. The average move will be about 0.12%. This could be traded profitably simply by going long or short at 9am if the conditions or right, or it can be used as a model to tell you when to day trade currency pairs and in which direction.
The equity curves for each pair shown below are sample and not time-based, i.e. a value is only shown where there is a trade. However it can be seen that both of the equity curves look fairly robust and healthy, especially the for the GBP/USD currency pair:
Strange but True
It is natural to think some extra conditions can be added to improve the results, for example only taking the signals that are in the same direction as the longer-term trend. In fact, adding this condition would not have improved the results significantly.Something to watch out for: during periods of wild market volatility – such as were seen from 2007 to 2009 – the strategy does not perform well, so it best to forget about this strategy during such conditions.
Finally, do not try to trade this strategy with other Forex currency pairs: it does not work, not even with the USD/CHF which as a European currency pair, you would expect to behave similarly to EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Source
Trading Forex with the Asian Range | Trading Forex
The hours from the time London opens for business until New York closes are widely regarded as the best time to trade Forex, and with good reason. It is during these hours that the Forex markets usually experience the highest liquidity, i.e. the highest volume of trading. High volume usually correlates positively with a high amount of price movement, which gives the retail Forex trader a chance to make money through directional trading. This means going long or short of Forex currency pairs and hoping to exit with a profit.
It is possible to trade Forex profitably by using either technical or fundamental analysis, or a combination of both. A common mistake made by many Forex traders is overcomplicating technical analysis. For example, the simple fact that the price is higher than it was a few months ago is probably going to be more significant and reliable than the exact value calculated by some fancy complicated indicator.
If you are interested in using technical analysis to trade Forex and you like to start your trading at around 8am London time, there are some very simple methods you can use to forecast the probable direction and strength of two major currency pairs – EUR/USD and GBP/USD - just by taking a quick look at the Asian range.
What is the “Asian Range”?
The “Asian Range” is not a concept that I invented. It is usually meant to refer to the high and low prices made by a currency pair from the time that Tokyo opens for business until London opens. Technically speaking, the Asian session runs a little beyond the time London opens as Tokyo stays open for an hour or so after that.There are a few well-known trading strategies based upon a currency pair’s Asian range. The most well-known is probably trading the first breakout of the Asian Range, followed by using the highs and lows as key resistance and support, or trading reversals from fake breakouts. I am not convinced these strategies necessarily show reliable edges, but it can be shown that over recent years we can use the Asian Range to give a predictive edge as to what is probably going to happen between the London open and the New York close, just using a simple measure of how the price has changed during the Asian session, rather than looking at the highs and lows as is traditionally the case.
Asian Session Statistics
The methodology we can use is quite simple, and I can illustrate that by using the last five years of data regarding two currency pairs: EUR/USD and GBP/USD.The concept is that at either 8am or 9am London time, we look to see how much the price has changed since midnight London time, which corresponds to the start of the Tokyo session which is the center of Asian Forex business. Very simply, if the price is up already, there is a higher probability that the price will end the New York session up even further, and vice versa if the price is down.
This seems very simple and too good to be true, but it is borne out by the statistics of the previous 5 years. It is not enough to say that the price must be up or down, we need a minimum filter for this move to be significant. It seems that the amount of 0.15% works quite well, and taking 9am London time works better than taking 8am London time as the end measuring point for the Asian price change.
Best Results
The best results for both pairs were achieved by taking the days where at 9am London time, the price had either risen since Midnight by more than 0.15% and less than 0.30% - in which case we can expect that New York will probably close higher – or fallen between the same amounts, in which case we can expect New York to close lower.The statistics are as follows for these parameters:
What these statistics mean is that if at 9am London time the price has moved between 0.15% and 0.30% since Midnight, then about 57% of the time by the end of the day in New York it will have moved further in the same direction. The average move will be about 0.12%. This could be traded profitably simply by going long or short at 9am if the conditions or right, or it can be used as a model to tell you when to day trade currency pairs and in which direction.
The equity curves for each pair shown below are sample and not time-based, i.e. a value is only shown where there is a trade. However it can be seen that both of the equity curves look fairly robust and healthy, especially the for the GBP/USD currency pair:
Strange but True
It is natural to think some extra conditions can be added to improve the results, for example only taking the signals that are in the same direction as the longer-term trend. In fact, adding this condition would not have improved the results significantly.Something to watch out for: during periods of wild market volatility – such as were seen from 2007 to 2009 – the strategy does not perform well, so it best to forget about this strategy during such conditions.
Finally, do not try to trade this strategy with other Forex currency pairs: it does not work, not even with the USD/CHF which as a European currency pair, you would expect to behave similarly to EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
Source
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