10 Potret Unik Ini Hanya Kamu Temukan di Indonesia, Jangan Ketawa ya!

ESMA Regulations – What Will Less Leverage Mean? | Trading Forex

The European Union has published new regulations applying to retail Forex, CFD, and the few remaining binary options brokerages in its territory. If you have an account with one such brokerage, the regulations will affect you when they come into force during the late spring and summer. This article will outline how the new regulations will impact your bottom line.

Details of the New ESMA Regulations

In March 2018, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the financial regulator and supervisor of the European Union, announced new regulations concerning the provision of contracts for differences (CFDs) and binary options to retail investors. It is unclear exactly when the regulations will come into force, but some time in May or June 2018 looks to be the most likely date, and Forex and CFD brokerages located within the European Union (including the United Kingdom, for the time being) will be forced to comply. The regulations will need to be renewed by ESMA every three months to remain in force over the long term.

The regulation concerning binary options is very simple: they may not be sold. In simple terms, this is the end of binary options as a product sold from within the European Union.

The regulations concerning CFDs are more complex but still relatively straightforward. Firstly, there is some confusion as to what exactly is a CFD, with many traders thinking that spot Forex is not considered a CFD and will therefore be exempt from the new regulations. They are wrong: spot Forex is technically defined as a CFD. In fact, every asset you see available for trading at Forex / CFD brokers will most likely be subject to the new regulations.

The new regulations will implement the following changes for retail client accounts (more on who is a retail client; later).

• The maximum leverage which can be offered will be 30 to 1. That will apply to major currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, etc.

• Other currency pairs, major equity indices, and gold will be subject to a maximum leverage of 20 to 1.

• Individual equities cannot be offered with leverage greater than 5 to 1.

• Cryptocurrencies are subject to a maximum leverage of 2 to 1.

• Brokers will be required to provide negative balance protection, meaning it will be impossible to lose more money than you deposit.

• Brokers will be required to close a clients open positions when the account equity reaches 50% of the required minimum margin by all open positions. This ;margin call; provision can be tricky to understand, so will be explained in more detail later.

• Bonuses or any other form of trading incentives may not be offered.

• Brokers will be required to display a standardized risk warning which will include the percentage of their clients who lose money over a defined period.

Understanding the ;Margin Call; Regulation

The best way to understand the 50% margin call provision is to use an example. Imagine a client opens an account with a Forex broker, depositing ;100 in total. The client opens a short trade in EUR/USD, by going short one mini-lot (one tenth of a full lot). One full lot of EUR/USD is worth ;10,000, meaning one mini-lot is worth ;1,000. To find out the minimum margin required to support that trade, we divide the size of the trade (;1,000) by 30, which comes to ;33.33. This is the minimum required margin to maintain the trade. Half of that amount is ;16.67. Now assume the trade goes against the client, with the price of EUR/USD rising above the entry price. As soon as the price rises far enough to produce a floating loss of ;83.33 (;100 - ;16.67), the broker must close the trade out, even if the trade has no stop loss or has not yet reached the stop loss. In theory, this means that a client;s account can never reach zero. Examples involving multiple open trades will be more complex, but will operate according to the same principles.

What Will This Mean for Traders?

The regulations will only apply to ;retail clients;, so you might try to apply to be classed as a professional trader. To get a broker to classify you as anything other than a retail client, you will have to show you have financial qualifications, a large amount of liquid assets, plenty of experience trading, and usually that you also trade frequently. Most traders will be unable to qualify, although it is worth noting that one London-based brokerage, IG Group, has stated that their proportion of clients now classified as recently increased from 5% to 15% of their total customers.

The major impact these regulations will have on traders is simple ndash; the maximum trade size they can possibly make at brokers regulated in the European Union will shrink. Many will say that the maximum leverage limits still offer far more than any trader could need, and I agree. I am wary of leverage and I hate to see anyone using leverage greater than 3 to 1 for Forex under any conditions, or any leverage at all for stocks and cryptocurrencies. Commodities can also fluctuate wildly in value. Too many people forget that the biggest danger in leverage is not overly large position sizing, it is that a ldquo;black swan rdquo; event such as the CHF flash crash of 2015 could happen and wipe out your account through huge price slippage. However, there is another factor that is widely forgotten: why assume that a trader rsquo;s account at one Forex broker is all the money they have in the world? For example, a trader might have $10,000 in the bank. If they deposit $1,000 at a broker offering maximum leverage of 300 to 1, they can trade up to $300,000. At a leverage limit of 30 to 1, that trader will have to deposit their entire $10,000 fund to trade at the same size. In a real sense, that trader might now have to take on more risk to operate in the same way, because if the broker goes bust, while beforehand they might lose $1,000 now they could lose $10,000! Even without negative balance protection, that broker would still have to come after them to try to get an extra $9,000 which they theoretically risk. Yet we saw after the CHF crash that brokers don rsquo;t come after every single client whose losses exceeded their deposit, due to legal costs and reputational issues. This shows that although the stated purpose of the regulation is to protect traders from excessive losses, the story is not as simple as you may think.

Beyond having to deposit more margin, and automatic margin calls, the other major change for traders will be that they will enjoy negative balance protection. This is a positive development which hopefully will make brokerages focus more heavily on the risks they are taking with their business model in the market. At the same time, a possible side effect of the new regulation is the potential increase in average deposits, leading to brokerages being more stable and better capitalized with client funds. Two final notes: brokerages will have to report on their websites the percentages of clients who are losing and making money, although the period over which the statistics must refer to is currently not clear. This will help to shed light on the debate over what percentage of retail traders are profitable, although some brokerages have already released what they claim to be accurate statistics showing that clients with larger account sizes tend to perform better as traders. Additionally, bonuses and promotions will be banned. I welcome this, as not only do they trivialize the serious business of trading, they are almost always a trick offering the illusion of free money whilst preventing traders from withdrawing any profits until a large number of trades are made (read the fine print the next time you squo;).

What If Yoursquo;re Not Happy Remaining in the EU?

Traders with accounts at affected brokers who cannot obtain professional status classification and feel they really need higher leverage than the ESMA limits outlined above might look for a solution by opening accounts with brokers outside the European Union. The most obvious destination would be Australia or New Zealand, where it will still be possible to find reasonably well-regulated Forex brokerages offering leverage in the range of 400 to 1. A recent development that is not talked about much is the growing difficulty of transferring funds to and from Forex brokerages in less tightly regulated jurisdictions. You might decide to open an account with a brokerage in Vanuatu, but you may find that a bank within the European Union might just refuse to send your money there for a deposit. This means that going far offshore, depending upon where you live, may not be a feasible option. In any case, the new regule impossible to live with, and overall there is a compelling case that they are a net benefit to any trader, so why migrate?

How to Trade Forex with Fire Lines | Trading Forex

Trading is, without a doubt, one of the most alluring and exciting professions an individual could ever embark upon. It is also, arguably, one of the most dangerous. A career as a trader can be over in a heartbeat if the trader has not been properly educated to the market’s fickle ways. It is the potential of unlimited riches and income that seduce so many, yet the odds of success are heavily stacked against them. What is it that makes the difference? Why do so few succeed, where most others fail? The answer can be summed up in four words: discipline, education, hard work. It is the purpose of this article to equip you, the budding trader, with some of the education necessary to help you put the odds of succeeding in your favor. As for the discipline and hard work part, that is up to you. I would be willing to guess that success in trading is probably close to 10% knowledge and 90% discipline/hard work. Perhaps this is why the "mortality" rate of would-be-traders is so high. Not everyone is suited to short-term trading. Many brilliant people have been shot down in flames while trading. My theory is that they try to out think the market, out maneuver it. They also try to re-invent tried-and-true trade plans and end up making things more complicated than they need to be. Both are usually very bad ideas, which for the most part, end up failing, and worse, lightening your wallet, sometimes by quite a lot! I mention this only to make a point. That being true, the trading method you are about to learn about here in these pages, has been developed, traded, optimized and adapted in the real world of trading. This program is not some theoretical algorithm that some mathematician somewhere has dreamt up. No, this plan has earned its stripes the hard way. Through blood, sweat, and tears, through failures and success. It is the backbone of how I personally trade.

Getting Ready to Trade

It would probably be wise at this point to have a little discussion on a few important and key elements to our trade plan before we jump into the trading rules and setups themselves. These would be; our primary tool - the chart, which markets to trade and why, the individual - that being you, and lastly, funding and risk.

The Chart - Part 1

The chart that we tend to favor for this style of trading is what's known as a candlestick chart. Because of how it is physically constructed, it is very easy to read and interpret in the chaos of a trading frenzy. We'll take a closer look at it shortly.

Which Market

Now comes the important decision as to what, or, which of the many markets to trade. Not all markets are suitable to the average trader to trade, and not all are created equal. When it comes to short term trading, there are three market traits that the individual must pay very close attention to and look out for before he / she begins trading it.
They are as follows:
Liquidity - Any market under consideration for trading must be liquid. That meaning, look for markets that are highly active with many various participants and creating a large amount of trading volume. High volume on its own, does not guarantee liquidity, it is the volume spread out, or distributed over a vast number of traders, each with different agendas, that allows for the almost immediate execution of buy and sell orders.
Smoothness - What we as short term traders are looking for in a market is nice orderly movement of price. We stay clear of erratic, jumpy markets at all costs. Consistency, smoothness and "predictability" of price behavior are what you should be looking for. Markets with a history of wide gaps in prices, large and meaningless price swings, or otherwise just chop, with prices moving back and forth, going nowhere, should be avoided like the plaque!
Range - Lastly, the market must have enough room, or range to make trading it worthwhile. Look for markets that have at least a 750.00 dollar trading range top to bottom, on a consistent basis. With this size range, there should be adequate opportunities and potential to profit and cover the associated costs of trading.

You

As briefly touched upon during the introduction, many clever people are just not suited to trading. Each individual must make an honest evaluation of him / herself before putting hard earned money, and precious time on the line. It is just a fact that a lot of people just don't have the mindset or the emotional makeup for trading. For some, the ups and downs of trading swings are just too much to deal with. It is just a personality trait, simple as that. Also, a trader must be prepared for long, lonely hours sitting in front of, and staring at a computer screen. If you like or need to be in the presence of others while working, trading may not be for you. Take a good hard look at yourself, is trading really for me?

Funding and Risk

Like any other business, you need capital to start with. How much capital you have to work with will dictate what markets you can trade. The more volatile a market, the more risk you will need to assume to trade it. It is therefore imperative to be properly funded with a strict money/risk management plan in place. If you don’t, do not trade until you do!

The Chart - Part 2

Ok, let us delve a little deeper into the chart itself. The chart is simply a graphical and dynamic representation of the supply, demand and price characteristics of the market at any given point in time. It can also convey to us, the "mood" or the psychology of that particular market - again, at any given point in time or price level. Price, direction, and trend are what we need to know in order to place our orders intelligently and give us the highest probability to profit from a given trade. This is what the charts help us to do. The chart itself is made up of individual "candles" or price bars. Each of these candles show to us the price movement over the given candles duration.
For most of this essay, we will be using 15-minute candle stick charts, thus, each candle will represent 15 minutes of price action. Let us now look and see how the candle itself is constructed.

Example 1

Let’s take a look at the Bullish Candle (below) first.

The candle is made up of 3 parts, the Body, the Wick, and the Tail. The distance between the top of the wick and the bottom of the tail is the entire range of price that occurred in the market during that 15-minute period. The bottom of the body was the price of the first trade made, and top of the body was the last trade made, for that 15-minute interval, hence the term open and close respectively. With a bullish candle, since prices closed higher than where they opened, then obviously, prices had to have been rising. Conversely, the Bearish Candle, “see below”, has its opening price higher than its closing price, therefore indicating prices fell during that period.

Depending on which charting software you use, bullish candles are usually either clear or green in color, while bearish candles will be filled, or red in color. In fact, nowadays, you can make the candles any color you wish.
There is a third, and very rare candle that we look for, and that is the "Doji" candle. This candle opens and closes at the same price (or within a tick or 2 of each other). This is usually neutral as far as the market is concerned, prices are content where they are with one exception. If the Doji candle occurs as a “swing” high or a “swing” low point on the chart, they more often than not signal a market reversal is about to occur. Prices have a high probability of turning around and moving in the opposite direction. Keep your eyes peeled for them, especially in the vicinity of one of our Fire Lines!

Fire Lines

Fire Lines are our statistical proprietary indicator that we use to produce price levels or price points, where we expect to see a lot of significant intraday trading activity, as well as to determine the likely trend of the price action for that particular day. Fire Lines typically identify areas where prices will be supported in a down trend, or resisted in an uptrend. It is at these levels that we seek to trade at. It is here, that we can enter the market with the least amount of risk and the greatest amount of potential.
And now for a few definitions:
Inflection Point (I.P.): This is our strongest level and the point at which, if crossed, we expect the trend to change. As a rule of thumb, if prices are above the IP, the market is deemed to be bullish, if prices are below the IP, the market is considered bearish.
Upper Value Range (U.V.R.): The highest price level we would expect to see the market trade at on a given, non-trending day. Very bullish if prices are at or above this level - a great place to initiate a long position from.
Lower Value Range (L.V.R.): The lowest price level we would expect to see the market trade at on a given, non-trending day. Very bearish if prices are at or below this level - a great place to initiate a short position from.
Targets and Objectives: The prices or levels we would expect the market to reach should the current trend continue. At these levels we can look for a trade, however most of the time we are already in one by the time these areas are reached! As such, we just call them targets, or objectives. They can sometimes also provide re-entry points for those days that are trending strongly, or a place to add size to winning positions.
The “Abattoir”: A French word meaning slaughterhouse. I use it to describe the area between the moving average and a Fire Line. A trader, as a general rule, does not want to initiate a trade in this area as it is prone to giving false signals and whipsaw - like price action. Basically an area of consolidation where no tradable trend is present.
So those, in a nutshell are the Fire Lines.
Simple Moving Average (SMA): Essentially a trend following measurement. An arithmetic mean of the number of periods assigned to it. e.g. A 96 SMA on our chart will sum and average the price data of the last 96 candles and plot it on the chart as a line.

Now for the Meat of It - A Typical Day

The first thing to do is to prepare your chart for the next trading session. I suggest just putting on the UVR, the IP, and the LVR lines only at first so your chart remains uncluttered and you can more clearly see what’s going on as prices begin to move. Of course, make sure your moving average is on the chart as well. The example below is pretty much how I have my chart set up going into the next trading session.

Non-Trending and Dangerous

Ok, let us examine the chart above and see what story it is trying to tell us.
Starting from the left hand side, notice how prices rapidly climb higher, go through the UVR (1st black arrow), and then just as quickly retreat. In fact, they fell back below the LVR where that level then became resistance (2 purple arrows). This is exactly the type of price action that gets so many new traders into trouble. When things get volatile, the adrenalin begins to flow and thoughts of fast and easy money fills their heads. For some strange reason, the thoughts of fast and easy losses never get thought about. Perhaps it is our optimistic nature as human beings, however optimism should NEVER be the basis of any one individual trade, be that getting into, or staying in a position. Optimism about ones trading, absolutely, but never when it comes to a trade! Risk management is what you need to focus on a day-to-day basis, and above average, unexplained volatility is usually a warning sign to stay away!

Now for the “Abattoir”

This is really not a big deal as it can be very easily recognized and avoided by following one very simple rule. DO NOT ENTER INTO A TRADE IF THE PRICE IS BETWEEN ANY OF THE FIRE LINES AND THE 96 SMA. Way more often than not, price will just bounce around between the levels, not a place where you want to be vulnerable and at risk. Sooner or later one side or the other will yield, and that’s when you want to play. Let the gamblers fight the battle, we’ll come in after the battle has been won on the side of the victors, and ride on their coat tails! Not glamourous or pretty, but usually highly profitable with little risk.

And Finally, the “Range”

This is the defined area between the Upper and Lower Value Range levels. (U.V.R and L.V.R.) Just like the “Abattoir”, this area can be subject to wild price gyrations and very erratic price movement. Typically, not a terrific spot to trade in. Having said that however, every once and awhile you can sometimes get a trade from the Inflection Point to either the U.V.R. or the L.V.R. depending on the trend, and of course depending on the stop size, or risk. But, as a general rule, trading within this range is dangerous and not recommended.
One last note on this chart. Notice both the U.V.R. and the L.V.R. get broken and then prices quickly return back inside the range (marked by black arrows). We don’t want to immediately initiate a trade when our levels are broken but instead wait to see if the broken level begins to act as support, as in the case of the U.V.R. breaking or becomes resistance, in the case of the L.V.R. being penetrated. We look for what we like to call, BHG (Break, Hold, and Go) before trading.
Here is an example of how I like to make a trade, in this case, a short in a strong down trend.

First thing to notice are the little green bubbles. See how at those points prices are coming to the Fire Lines and being repelled by them? The subsequent high and low swings now become perfect entry levels for us. As an example, we can see a swing low as marked by the light blue arrow. The following candle attempts to rally but is defeated... the selling pressure is still on. Therefore, we can quite safely place our sell order just below the marked swing low (broken blue line) with an initial objective of the 2nd Target. It is at these swing highs and lows (or very close to) at our Fire Lines that we seek to trade from.
Very often however, you just cannot get onto a trade safely. Notice the black arrow.
It is pointing towards a candle whose range is much larger than that of the other candles around it... a volatile situation likely caused by a news item or economic report. In this case the risks are just far too great relative to the potential rewards to try and trade it. The smart traders will likely retreat.
Let’s look at one more, this time on the buy side.

As you can see, it is pretty much the same idea as we had on the previous chart only this time we are buying at our Fire Lines in a strong uptrend. Line to line, smooth as silk.



Source

How to Trade Forex with Fire Lines | Trading Forex

Trading is, without a doubt, one of the most alluring and exciting professions an individual could ever embark upon. It is also, arguably, one of the most dangerous. A career as a trader can be over in a heartbeat if the trader has not been properly educated to the market’s fickle ways. It is the potential of unlimited riches and income that seduce so many, yet the odds of success are heavily stacked against them. What is it that makes the difference? Why do so few succeed, where most others fail? The answer can be summed up in four words: discipline, education, hard work. It is the purpose of this article to equip you, the budding trader, with some of the education necessary to help you put the odds of succeeding in your favor. As for the discipline and hard work part, that is up to you. I would be willing to guess that success in trading is probably close to 10% knowledge and 90% discipline/hard work. Perhaps this is why the "mortality" rate of would-be-traders is so high. Not everyone is suited to short-term trading. Many brilliant people have been shot down in flames while trading. My theory is that they try to out think the market, out maneuver it. They also try to re-invent tried-and-true trade plans and end up making things more complicated than they need to be. Both are usually very bad ideas, which for the most part, end up failing, and worse, lightening your wallet, sometimes by quite a lot! I mention this only to make a point. That being true, the trading method you are about to learn about here in these pages, has been developed, traded, optimized and adapted in the real world of trading. This program is not some theoretical algorithm that some mathematician somewhere has dreamt up. No, this plan has earned its stripes the hard way. Through blood, sweat, and tears, through failures and success. It is the backbone of how I personally trade.

Getting Ready to Trade

It would probably be wise at this point to have a little discussion on a few important and key elements to our trade plan before we jump into the trading rules and setups themselves. These would be; our primary tool - the chart, which markets to trade and why, the individual - that being you, and lastly, funding and risk.

The Chart - Part 1

The chart that we tend to favor for this style of trading is what's known as a candlestick chart. Because of how it is physically constructed, it is very easy to read and interpret in the chaos of a trading frenzy. We'll take a closer look at it shortly.

Which Market

Now comes the important decision as to what, or, which of the many markets to trade. Not all markets are suitable to the average trader to trade, and not all are created equal. When it comes to short term trading, there are three market traits that the individual must pay very close attention to and look out for before he / she begins trading it.
They are as follows:
Liquidity - Any market under consideration for trading must be liquid. That meaning, look for markets that are highly active with many various participants and creating a large amount of trading volume. High volume on its own, does not guarantee liquidity, it is the volume spread out, or distributed over a vast number of traders, each with different agendas, that allows for the almost immediate execution of buy and sell orders.
Smoothness - What we as short term traders are looking for in a market is nice orderly movement of price. We stay clear of erratic, jumpy markets at all costs. Consistency, smoothness and "predictability" of price behavior are what you should be looking for. Markets with a history of wide gaps in prices, large and meaningless price swings, or otherwise just chop, with prices moving back and forth, going nowhere, should be avoided like the plaque!
Range - Lastly, the market must have enough room, or range to make trading it worthwhile. Look for markets that have at least a 750.00 dollar trading range top to bottom, on a consistent basis. With this size range, there should be adequate opportunities and potential to profit and cover the associated costs of trading.

You

As briefly touched upon during the introduction, many clever people are just not suited to trading. Each individual must make an honest evaluation of him / herself before putting hard earned money, and precious time on the line. It is just a fact that a lot of people just don't have the mindset or the emotional makeup for trading. For some, the ups and downs of trading swings are just too much to deal with. It is just a personality trait, simple as that. Also, a trader must be prepared for long, lonely hours sitting in front of, and staring at a computer screen. If you like or need to be in the presence of others while working, trading may not be for you. Take a good hard look at yourself, is trading really for me?

Funding and Risk

Like any other business, you need capital to start with. How much capital you have to work with will dictate what markets you can trade. The more volatile a market, the more risk you will need to assume to trade it. It is therefore imperative to be properly funded with a strict money/risk management plan in place. If you don’t, do not trade until you do!

The Chart - Part 2

Ok, let us delve a little deeper into the chart itself. The chart is simply a graphical and dynamic representation of the supply, demand and price characteristics of the market at any given point in time. It can also convey to us, the "mood" or the psychology of that particular market - again, at any given point in time or price level. Price, direction, and trend are what we need to know in order to place our orders intelligently and give us the highest probability to profit from a given trade. This is what the charts help us to do. The chart itself is made up of individual "candles" or price bars. Each of these candles show to us the price movement over the given candles duration.
For most of this essay, we will be using 15-minute candle stick charts, thus, each candle will represent 15 minutes of price action. Let us now look and see how the candle itself is constructed.

Example 1

Let’s take a look at the Bullish Candle (below) first.

The candle is made up of 3 parts, the Body, the Wick, and the Tail. The distance between the top of the wick and the bottom of the tail is the entire range of price that occurred in the market during that 15-minute period. The bottom of the body was the price of the first trade made, and top of the body was the last trade made, for that 15-minute interval, hence the term open and close respectively. With a bullish candle, since prices closed higher than where they opened, then obviously, prices had to have been rising. Conversely, the Bearish Candle, “see below”, has its opening price higher than its closing price, therefore indicating prices fell during that period.

Depending on which charting software you use, bullish candles are usually either clear or green in color, while bearish candles will be filled, or red in color. In fact, nowadays, you can make the candles any color you wish.
There is a third, and very rare candle that we look for, and that is the "Doji" candle. This candle opens and closes at the same price (or within a tick or 2 of each other). This is usually neutral as far as the market is concerned, prices are content where they are with one exception. If the Doji candle occurs as a “swing” high or a “swing” low point on the chart, they more often than not signal a market reversal is about to occur. Prices have a high probability of turning around and moving in the opposite direction. Keep your eyes peeled for them, especially in the vicinity of one of our Fire Lines!

Fire Lines

Fire Lines are our statistical proprietary indicator that we use to produce price levels or price points, where we expect to see a lot of significant intraday trading activity, as well as to determine the likely trend of the price action for that particular day. Fire Lines typically identify areas where prices will be supported in a down trend, or resisted in an uptrend. It is at these levels that we seek to trade at. It is here, that we can enter the market with the least amount of risk and the greatest amount of potential.
And now for a few definitions:
Inflection Point (I.P.): This is our strongest level and the point at which, if crossed, we expect the trend to change. As a rule of thumb, if prices are above the IP, the market is deemed to be bullish, if prices are below the IP, the market is considered bearish.
Upper Value Range (U.V.R.): The highest price level we would expect to see the market trade at on a given, non-trending day. Very bullish if prices are at or above this level - a great place to initiate a long position from.
Lower Value Range (L.V.R.): The lowest price level we would expect to see the market trade at on a given, non-trending day. Very bearish if prices are at or below this level - a great place to initiate a short position from.
Targets and Objectives: The prices or levels we would expect the market to reach should the current trend continue. At these levels we can look for a trade, however most of the time we are already in one by the time these areas are reached! As such, we just call them targets, or objectives. They can sometimes also provide re-entry points for those days that are trending strongly, or a place to add size to winning positions.
The “Abattoir”: A French word meaning slaughterhouse. I use it to describe the area between the moving average and a Fire Line. A trader, as a general rule, does not want to initiate a trade in this area as it is prone to giving false signals and whipsaw - like price action. Basically an area of consolidation where no tradable trend is present.
So those, in a nutshell are the Fire Lines.
Simple Moving Average (SMA): Essentially a trend following measurement. An arithmetic mean of the number of periods assigned to it. e.g. A 96 SMA on our chart will sum and average the price data of the last 96 candles and plot it on the chart as a line.

Now for the Meat of It - A Typical Day

The first thing to do is to prepare your chart for the next trading session. I suggest just putting on the UVR, the IP, and the LVR lines only at first so your chart remains uncluttered and you can more clearly see what’s going on as prices begin to move. Of course, make sure your moving average is on the chart as well. The example below is pretty much how I have my chart set up going into the next trading session.

Non-Trending and Dangerous

Ok, let us examine the chart above and see what story it is trying to tell us.
Starting from the left hand side, notice how prices rapidly climb higher, go through the UVR (1st black arrow), and then just as quickly retreat. In fact, they fell back below the LVR where that level then became resistance (2 purple arrows). This is exactly the type of price action that gets so many new traders into trouble. When things get volatile, the adrenalin begins to flow and thoughts of fast and easy money fills their heads. For some strange reason, the thoughts of fast and easy losses never get thought about. Perhaps it is our optimistic nature as human beings, however optimism should NEVER be the basis of any one individual trade, be that getting into, or staying in a position. Optimism about ones trading, absolutely, but never when it comes to a trade! Risk management is what you need to focus on a day-to-day basis, and above average, unexplained volatility is usually a warning sign to stay away!

Now for the “Abattoir”

This is really not a big deal as it can be very easily recognized and avoided by following one very simple rule. DO NOT ENTER INTO A TRADE IF THE PRICE IS BETWEEN ANY OF THE FIRE LINES AND THE 96 SMA. Way more often than not, price will just bounce around between the levels, not a place where you want to be vulnerable and at risk. Sooner or later one side or the other will yield, and that’s when you want to play. Let the gamblers fight the battle, we’ll come in after the battle has been won on the side of the victors, and ride on their coat tails! Not glamourous or pretty, but usually highly profitable with little risk.

And Finally, the “Range”

This is the defined area between the Upper and Lower Value Range levels. (U.V.R and L.V.R.) Just like the “Abattoir”, this area can be subject to wild price gyrations and very erratic price movement. Typically, not a terrific spot to trade in. Having said that however, every once and awhile you can sometimes get a trade from the Inflection Point to either the U.V.R. or the L.V.R. depending on the trend, and of course depending on the stop size, or risk. But, as a general rule, trading within this range is dangerous and not recommended.
One last note on this chart. Notice both the U.V.R. and the L.V.R. get broken and then prices quickly return back inside the range (marked by black arrows). We don’t want to immediately initiate a trade when our levels are broken but instead wait to see if the broken level begins to act as support, as in the case of the U.V.R. breaking or becomes resistance, in the case of the L.V.R. being penetrated. We look for what we like to call, BHG (Break, Hold, and Go) before trading.
Here is an example of how I like to make a trade, in this case, a short in a strong down trend.

First thing to notice are the little green bubbles. See how at those points prices are coming to the Fire Lines and being repelled by them? The subsequent high and low swings now become perfect entry levels for us. As an example, we can see a swing low as marked by the light blue arrow. The following candle attempts to rally but is defeated... the selling pressure is still on. Therefore, we can quite safely place our sell order just below the marked swing low (broken blue line) with an initial objective of the 2nd Target. It is at these swing highs and lows (or very close to) at our Fire Lines that we seek to trade from.
Very often however, you just cannot get onto a trade safely. Notice the black arrow.
It is pointing towards a candle whose range is much larger than that of the other candles around it... a volatile situation likely caused by a news item or economic report. In this case the risks are just far too great relative to the potential rewards to try and trade it. The smart traders will likely retreat.
Let’s look at one more, this time on the buy side.

As you can see, it is pretty much the same idea as we had on the previous chart only this time we are buying at our Fire Lines in a strong uptrend. Line to line, smooth as silk.



Source

How to Trade Forex with Fire Lines | Trading Forex

Trading is, without a doubt, one of the most alluring and exciting professions an individual could ever embark upon. It is also, arguably, one of the most dangerous. A career as a trader can be over in a heartbeat if the trader has not been properly educated to the market’s fickle ways. It is the potential of unlimited riches and income that seduce so many, yet the odds of success are heavily stacked against them. What is it that makes the difference? Why do so few succeed, where most others fail? The answer can be summed up in four words: discipline, education, hard work. It is the purpose of this article to equip you, the budding trader, with some of the education necessary to help you put the odds of succeeding in your favor. As for the discipline and hard work part, that is up to you. I would be willing to guess that success in trading is probably close to 10% knowledge and 90% discipline/hard work. Perhaps this is why the "mortality" rate of would-be-traders is so high. Not everyone is suited to short-term trading. Many brilliant people have been shot down in flames while trading. My theory is that they try to out think the market, out maneuver it. They also try to re-invent tried-and-true trade plans and end up making things more complicated than they need to be. Both are usually very bad ideas, which for the most part, end up failing, and worse, lightening your wallet, sometimes by quite a lot! I mention this only to make a point. That being true, the trading method you are about to learn about here in these pages, has been developed, traded, optimized and adapted in the real world of trading. This program is not some theoretical algorithm that some mathematician somewhere has dreamt up. No, this plan has earned its stripes the hard way. Through blood, sweat, and tears, through failures and success. It is the backbone of how I personally trade.

Getting Ready to Trade

It would probably be wise at this point to have a little discussion on a few important and key elements to our trade plan before we jump into the trading rules and setups themselves. These would be; our primary tool - the chart, which markets to trade and why, the individual - that being you, and lastly, funding and risk.

The Chart - Part 1

The chart that we tend to favor for this style of trading is what's known as a candlestick chart. Because of how it is physically constructed, it is very easy to read and interpret in the chaos of a trading frenzy. We'll take a closer look at it shortly.

Which Market

Now comes the important decision as to what, or, which of the many markets to trade. Not all markets are suitable to the average trader to trade, and not all are created equal. When it comes to short term trading, there are three market traits that the individual must pay very close attention to and look out for before he / she begins trading it.
They are as follows:
Liquidity - Any market under consideration for trading must be liquid. That meaning, look for markets that are highly active with many various participants and creating a large amount of trading volume. High volume on its own, does not guarantee liquidity, it is the volume spread out, or distributed over a vast number of traders, each with different agendas, that allows for the almost immediate execution of buy and sell orders.
Smoothness - What we as short term traders are looking for in a market is nice orderly movement of price. We stay clear of erratic, jumpy markets at all costs. Consistency, smoothness and "predictability" of price behavior are what you should be looking for. Markets with a history of wide gaps in prices, large and meaningless price swings, or otherwise just chop, with prices moving back and forth, going nowhere, should be avoided like the plaque!
Range - Lastly, the market must have enough room, or range to make trading it worthwhile. Look for markets that have at least a 750.00 dollar trading range top to bottom, on a consistent basis. With this size range, there should be adequate opportunities and potential to profit and cover the associated costs of trading.

You

As briefly touched upon during the introduction, many clever people are just not suited to trading. Each individual must make an honest evaluation of him / herself before putting hard earned money, and precious time on the line. It is just a fact that a lot of people just don't have the mindset or the emotional makeup for trading. For some, the ups and downs of trading swings are just too much to deal with. It is just a personality trait, simple as that. Also, a trader must be prepared for long, lonely hours sitting in front of, and staring at a computer screen. If you like or need to be in the presence of others while working, trading may not be for you. Take a good hard look at yourself, is trading really for me?

Funding and Risk

Like any other business, you need capital to start with. How much capital you have to work with will dictate what markets you can trade. The more volatile a market, the more risk you will need to assume to trade it. It is therefore imperative to be properly funded with a strict money/risk management plan in place. If you don’t, do not trade until you do!

The Chart - Part 2

Ok, let us delve a little deeper into the chart itself. The chart is simply a graphical and dynamic representation of the supply, demand and price characteristics of the market at any given point in time. It can also convey to us, the "mood" or the psychology of that particular market - again, at any given point in time or price level. Price, direction, and trend are what we need to know in order to place our orders intelligently and give us the highest probability to profit from a given trade. This is what the charts help us to do. The chart itself is made up of individual "candles" or price bars. Each of these candles show to us the price movement over the given candles duration.
For most of this essay, we will be using 15-minute candle stick charts, thus, each candle will represent 15 minutes of price action. Let us now look and see how the candle itself is constructed.

Example 1

Let’s take a look at the Bullish Candle (below) first.

The candle is made up of 3 parts, the Body, the Wick, and the Tail. The distance between the top of the wick and the bottom of the tail is the entire range of price that occurred in the market during that 15-minute period. The bottom of the body was the price of the first trade made, and top of the body was the last trade made, for that 15-minute interval, hence the term open and close respectively. With a bullish candle, since prices closed higher than where they opened, then obviously, prices had to have been rising. Conversely, the Bearish Candle, “see below”, has its opening price higher than its closing price, therefore indicating prices fell during that period.

Depending on which charting software you use, bullish candles are usually either clear or green in color, while bearish candles will be filled, or red in color. In fact, nowadays, you can make the candles any color you wish.
There is a third, and very rare candle that we look for, and that is the "Doji" candle. This candle opens and closes at the same price (or within a tick or 2 of each other). This is usually neutral as far as the market is concerned, prices are content where they are with one exception. If the Doji candle occurs as a “swing” high or a “swing” low point on the chart, they more often than not signal a market reversal is about to occur. Prices have a high probability of turning around and moving in the opposite direction. Keep your eyes peeled for them, especially in the vicinity of one of our Fire Lines!

Fire Lines

Fire Lines are our statistical proprietary indicator that we use to produce price levels or price points, where we expect to see a lot of significant intraday trading activity, as well as to determine the likely trend of the price action for that particular day. Fire Lines typically identify areas where prices will be supported in a down trend, or resisted in an uptrend. It is at these levels that we seek to trade at. It is here, that we can enter the market with the least amount of risk and the greatest amount of potential.
And now for a few definitions:
Inflection Point (I.P.): This is our strongest level and the point at which, if crossed, we expect the trend to change. As a rule of thumb, if prices are above the IP, the market is deemed to be bullish, if prices are below the IP, the market is considered bearish.
Upper Value Range (U.V.R.): The highest price level we would expect to see the market trade at on a given, non-trending day. Very bullish if prices are at or above this level - a great place to initiate a long position from.
Lower Value Range (L.V.R.): The lowest price level we would expect to see the market trade at on a given, non-trending day. Very bearish if prices are at or below this level - a great place to initiate a short position from.
Targets and Objectives: The prices or levels we would expect the market to reach should the current trend continue. At these levels we can look for a trade, however most of the time we are already in one by the time these areas are reached! As such, we just call them targets, or objectives. They can sometimes also provide re-entry points for those days that are trending strongly, or a place to add size to winning positions.
The “Abattoir”: A French word meaning slaughterhouse. I use it to describe the area between the moving average and a Fire Line. A trader, as a general rule, does not want to initiate a trade in this area as it is prone to giving false signals and whipsaw - like price action. Basically an area of consolidation where no tradable trend is present.
So those, in a nutshell are the Fire Lines.
Simple Moving Average (SMA): Essentially a trend following measurement. An arithmetic mean of the number of periods assigned to it. e.g. A 96 SMA on our chart will sum and average the price data of the last 96 candles and plot it on the chart as a line.

Now for the Meat of It - A Typical Day

The first thing to do is to prepare your chart for the next trading session. I suggest just putting on the UVR, the IP, and the LVR lines only at first so your chart remains uncluttered and you can more clearly see what’s going on as prices begin to move. Of course, make sure your moving average is on the chart as well. The example below is pretty much how I have my chart set up going into the next trading session.

Non-Trending and Dangerous

Ok, let us examine the chart above and see what story it is trying to tell us.
Starting from the left hand side, notice how prices rapidly climb higher, go through the UVR (1st black arrow), and then just as quickly retreat. In fact, they fell back below the LVR where that level then became resistance (2 purple arrows). This is exactly the type of price action that gets so many new traders into trouble. When things get volatile, the adrenalin begins to flow and thoughts of fast and easy money fills their heads. For some strange reason, the thoughts of fast and easy losses never get thought about. Perhaps it is our optimistic nature as human beings, however optimism should NEVER be the basis of any one individual trade, be that getting into, or staying in a position. Optimism about ones trading, absolutely, but never when it comes to a trade! Risk management is what you need to focus on a day-to-day basis, and above average, unexplained volatility is usually a warning sign to stay away!

Now for the “Abattoir”

This is really not a big deal as it can be very easily recognized and avoided by following one very simple rule. DO NOT ENTER INTO A TRADE IF THE PRICE IS BETWEEN ANY OF THE FIRE LINES AND THE 96 SMA. Way more often than not, price will just bounce around between the levels, not a place where you want to be vulnerable and at risk. Sooner or later one side or the other will yield, and that’s when you want to play. Let the gamblers fight the battle, we’ll come in after the battle has been won on the side of the victors, and ride on their coat tails! Not glamourous or pretty, but usually highly profitable with little risk.

And Finally, the “Range”

This is the defined area between the Upper and Lower Value Range levels. (U.V.R and L.V.R.) Just like the “Abattoir”, this area can be subject to wild price gyrations and very erratic price movement. Typically, not a terrific spot to trade in. Having said that however, every once and awhile you can sometimes get a trade from the Inflection Point to either the U.V.R. or the L.V.R. depending on the trend, and of course depending on the stop size, or risk. But, as a general rule, trading within this range is dangerous and not recommended.
One last note on this chart. Notice both the U.V.R. and the L.V.R. get broken and then prices quickly return back inside the range (marked by black arrows). We don’t want to immediately initiate a trade when our levels are broken but instead wait to see if the broken level begins to act as support, as in the case of the U.V.R. breaking or becomes resistance, in the case of the L.V.R. being penetrated. We look for what we like to call, BHG (Break, Hold, and Go) before trading.
Here is an example of how I like to make a trade, in this case, a short in a strong down trend.

First thing to notice are the little green bubbles. See how at those points prices are coming to the Fire Lines and being repelled by them? The subsequent high and low swings now become perfect entry levels for us. As an example, we can see a swing low as marked by the light blue arrow. The following candle attempts to rally but is defeated... the selling pressure is still on. Therefore, we can quite safely place our sell order just below the marked swing low (broken blue line) with an initial objective of the 2nd Target. It is at these swing highs and lows (or very close to) at our Fire Lines that we seek to trade from.
Very often however, you just cannot get onto a trade safely. Notice the black arrow.
It is pointing towards a candle whose range is much larger than that of the other candles around it... a volatile situation likely caused by a news item or economic report. In this case the risks are just far too great relative to the potential rewards to try and trade it. The smart traders will likely retreat.
Let’s look at one more, this time on the buy side.

As you can see, it is pretty much the same idea as we had on the previous chart only this time we are buying at our Fire Lines in a strong uptrend. Line to line, smooth as silk.



Source

How to Trade Forex with Fire Lines | Trading Forex

Trading is, without a doubt, one of the most alluring and exciting professions an individual could ever embark upon. It is also, arguably, one of the most dangerous. A career as a trader can be over in a heartbeat if the trader has not been properly educated to the market’s fickle ways. It is the potential of unlimited riches and income that seduce so many, yet the odds of success are heavily stacked against them. What is it that makes the difference? Why do so few succeed, where most others fail? The answer can be summed up in four words: discipline, education, hard work. It is the purpose of this article to equip you, the budding trader, with some of the education necessary to help you put the odds of succeeding in your favor. As for the discipline and hard work part, that is up to you. I would be willing to guess that success in trading is probably close to 10% knowledge and 90% discipline/hard work. Perhaps this is why the "mortality" rate of would-be-traders is so high. Not everyone is suited to short-term trading. Many brilliant people have been shot down in flames while trading. My theory is that they try to out think the market, out maneuver it. They also try to re-invent tried-and-true trade plans and end up making things more complicated than they need to be. Both are usually very bad ideas, which for the most part, end up failing, and worse, lightening your wallet, sometimes by quite a lot! I mention this only to make a point. That being true, the trading method you are about to learn about here in these pages, has been developed, traded, optimized and adapted in the real world of trading. This program is not some theoretical algorithm that some mathematician somewhere has dreamt up. No, this plan has earned its stripes the hard way. Through blood, sweat, and tears, through failures and success. It is the backbone of how I personally trade.

Getting Ready to Trade

It would probably be wise at this point to have a little discussion on a few important and key elements to our trade plan before we jump into the trading rules and setups themselves. These would be; our primary tool - the chart, which markets to trade and why, the individual - that being you, and lastly, funding and risk.

The Chart - Part 1

The chart that we tend to favor for this style of trading is what's known as a candlestick chart. Because of how it is physically constructed, it is very easy to read and interpret in the chaos of a trading frenzy. We'll take a closer look at it shortly.

Which Market

Now comes the important decision as to what, or, which of the many markets to trade. Not all markets are suitable to the average trader to trade, and not all are created equal. When it comes to short term trading, there are three market traits that the individual must pay very close attention to and look out for before he / she begins trading it.
They are as follows:
Liquidity - Any market under consideration for trading must be liquid. That meaning, look for markets that are highly active with many various participants and creating a large amount of trading volume. High volume on its own, does not guarantee liquidity, it is the volume spread out, or distributed over a vast number of traders, each with different agendas, that allows for the almost immediate execution of buy and sell orders.
Smoothness - What we as short term traders are looking for in a market is nice orderly movement of price. We stay clear of erratic, jumpy markets at all costs. Consistency, smoothness and "predictability" of price behavior are what you should be looking for. Markets with a history of wide gaps in prices, large and meaningless price swings, or otherwise just chop, with prices moving back and forth, going nowhere, should be avoided like the plaque!
Range - Lastly, the market must have enough room, or range to make trading it worthwhile. Look for markets that have at least a 750.00 dollar trading range top to bottom, on a consistent basis. With this size range, there should be adequate opportunities and potential to profit and cover the associated costs of trading.

You

As briefly touched upon during the introduction, many clever people are just not suited to trading. Each individual must make an honest evaluation of him / herself before putting hard earned money, and precious time on the line. It is just a fact that a lot of people just don't have the mindset or the emotional makeup for trading. For some, the ups and downs of trading swings are just too much to deal with. It is just a personality trait, simple as that. Also, a trader must be prepared for long, lonely hours sitting in front of, and staring at a computer screen. If you like or need to be in the presence of others while working, trading may not be for you. Take a good hard look at yourself, is trading really for me?

Funding and Risk

Like any other business, you need capital to start with. How much capital you have to work with will dictate what markets you can trade. The more volatile a market, the more risk you will need to assume to trade it. It is therefore imperative to be properly funded with a strict money/risk management plan in place. If you don’t, do not trade until you do!

The Chart - Part 2

Ok, let us delve a little deeper into the chart itself. The chart is simply a graphical and dynamic representation of the supply, demand and price characteristics of the market at any given point in time. It can also convey to us, the "mood" or the psychology of that particular market - again, at any given point in time or price level. Price, direction, and trend are what we need to know in order to place our orders intelligently and give us the highest probability to profit from a given trade. This is what the charts help us to do. The chart itself is made up of individual "candles" or price bars. Each of these candles show to us the price movement over the given candles duration.
For most of this essay, we will be using 15-minute candle stick charts, thus, each candle will represent 15 minutes of price action. Let us now look and see how the candle itself is constructed.

Example 1

Let’s take a look at the Bullish Candle (below) first.

The candle is made up of 3 parts, the Body, the Wick, and the Tail. The distance between the top of the wick and the bottom of the tail is the entire range of price that occurred in the market during that 15-minute period. The bottom of the body was the price of the first trade made, and top of the body was the last trade made, for that 15-minute interval, hence the term open and close respectively. With a bullish candle, since prices closed higher than where they opened, then obviously, prices had to have been rising. Conversely, the Bearish Candle, “see below”, has its opening price higher than its closing price, therefore indicating prices fell during that period.

Depending on which charting software you use, bullish candles are usually either clear or green in color, while bearish candles will be filled, or red in color. In fact, nowadays, you can make the candles any color you wish.
There is a third, and very rare candle that we look for, and that is the "Doji" candle. This candle opens and closes at the same price (or within a tick or 2 of each other). This is usually neutral as far as the market is concerned, prices are content where they are with one exception. If the Doji candle occurs as a “swing” high or a “swing” low point on the chart, they more often than not signal a market reversal is about to occur. Prices have a high probability of turning around and moving in the opposite direction. Keep your eyes peeled for them, especially in the vicinity of one of our Fire Lines!

Fire Lines

Fire Lines are our statistical proprietary indicator that we use to produce price levels or price points, where we expect to see a lot of significant intraday trading activity, as well as to determine the likely trend of the price action for that particular day. Fire Lines typically identify areas where prices will be supported in a down trend, or resisted in an uptrend. It is at these levels that we seek to trade at. It is here, that we can enter the market with the least amount of risk and the greatest amount of potential.
And now for a few definitions:
Inflection Point (I.P.): This is our strongest level and the point at which, if crossed, we expect the trend to change. As a rule of thumb, if prices are above the IP, the market is deemed to be bullish, if prices are below the IP, the market is considered bearish.
Upper Value Range (U.V.R.): The highest price level we would expect to see the market trade at on a given, non-trending day. Very bullish if prices are at or above this level - a great place to initiate a long position from.
Lower Value Range (L.V.R.): The lowest price level we would expect to see the market trade at on a given, non-trending day. Very bearish if prices are at or below this level - a great place to initiate a short position from.
Targets and Objectives: The prices or levels we would expect the market to reach should the current trend continue. At these levels we can look for a trade, however most of the time we are already in one by the time these areas are reached! As such, we just call them targets, or objectives. They can sometimes also provide re-entry points for those days that are trending strongly, or a place to add size to winning positions.
The “Abattoir”: A French word meaning slaughterhouse. I use it to describe the area between the moving average and a Fire Line. A trader, as a general rule, does not want to initiate a trade in this area as it is prone to giving false signals and whipsaw - like price action. Basically an area of consolidation where no tradable trend is present.
So those, in a nutshell are the Fire Lines.
Simple Moving Average (SMA): Essentially a trend following measurement. An arithmetic mean of the number of periods assigned to it. e.g. A 96 SMA on our chart will sum and average the price data of the last 96 candles and plot it on the chart as a line.

Now for the Meat of It - A Typical Day

The first thing to do is to prepare your chart for the next trading session. I suggest just putting on the UVR, the IP, and the LVR lines only at first so your chart remains uncluttered and you can more clearly see what’s going on as prices begin to move. Of course, make sure your moving average is on the chart as well. The example below is pretty much how I have my chart set up going into the next trading session.

Non-Trending and Dangerous

Ok, let us examine the chart above and see what story it is trying to tell us.
Starting from the left hand side, notice how prices rapidly climb higher, go through the UVR (1st black arrow), and then just as quickly retreat. In fact, they fell back below the LVR where that level then became resistance (2 purple arrows). This is exactly the type of price action that gets so many new traders into trouble. When things get volatile, the adrenalin begins to flow and thoughts of fast and easy money fills their heads. For some strange reason, the thoughts of fast and easy losses never get thought about. Perhaps it is our optimistic nature as human beings, however optimism should NEVER be the basis of any one individual trade, be that getting into, or staying in a position. Optimism about ones trading, absolutely, but never when it comes to a trade! Risk management is what you need to focus on a day-to-day basis, and above average, unexplained volatility is usually a warning sign to stay away!

Now for the “Abattoir”

This is really not a big deal as it can be very easily recognized and avoided by following one very simple rule. DO NOT ENTER INTO A TRADE IF THE PRICE IS BETWEEN ANY OF THE FIRE LINES AND THE 96 SMA. Way more often than not, price will just bounce around between the levels, not a place where you want to be vulnerable and at risk. Sooner or later one side or the other will yield, and that’s when you want to play. Let the gamblers fight the battle, we’ll come in after the battle has been won on the side of the victors, and ride on their coat tails! Not glamourous or pretty, but usually highly profitable with little risk.

And Finally, the “Range”

This is the defined area between the Upper and Lower Value Range levels. (U.V.R and L.V.R.) Just like the “Abattoir”, this area can be subject to wild price gyrations and very erratic price movement. Typically, not a terrific spot to trade in. Having said that however, every once and awhile you can sometimes get a trade from the Inflection Point to either the U.V.R. or the L.V.R. depending on the trend, and of course depending on the stop size, or risk. But, as a general rule, trading within this range is dangerous and not recommended.
One last note on this chart. Notice both the U.V.R. and the L.V.R. get broken and then prices quickly return back inside the range (marked by black arrows). We don’t want to immediately initiate a trade when our levels are broken but instead wait to see if the broken level begins to act as support, as in the case of the U.V.R. breaking or becomes resistance, in the case of the L.V.R. being penetrated. We look for what we like to call, BHG (Break, Hold, and Go) before trading.
Here is an example of how I like to make a trade, in this case, a short in a strong down trend.

First thing to notice are the little green bubbles. See how at those points prices are coming to the Fire Lines and being repelled by them? The subsequent high and low swings now become perfect entry levels for us. As an example, we can see a swing low as marked by the light blue arrow. The following candle attempts to rally but is defeated... the selling pressure is still on. Therefore, we can quite safely place our sell order just below the marked swing low (broken blue line) with an initial objective of the 2nd Target. It is at these swing highs and lows (or very close to) at our Fire Lines that we seek to trade from.
Very often however, you just cannot get onto a trade safely. Notice the black arrow.
It is pointing towards a candle whose range is much larger than that of the other candles around it... a volatile situation likely caused by a news item or economic report. In this case the risks are just far too great relative to the potential rewards to try and trade it. The smart traders will likely retreat.
Let’s look at one more, this time on the buy side.

As you can see, it is pretty much the same idea as we had on the previous chart only this time we are buying at our Fire Lines in a strong uptrend. Line to line, smooth as silk.



Source

How to Trade Forex with Fire Lines | Trading Forex

Trading is, without a doubt, one of the most alluring and exciting professions an individual could ever embark upon. It is also, arguably, one of the most dangerous. A career as a trader can be over in a heartbeat if the trader has not been properly educated to the market’s fickle ways. It is the potential of unlimited riches and income that seduce so many, yet the odds of success are heavily stacked against them. What is it that makes the difference? Why do so few succeed, where most others fail? The answer can be summed up in four words: discipline, education, hard work. It is the purpose of this article to equip you, the budding trader, with some of the education necessary to help you put the odds of succeeding in your favor. As for the discipline and hard work part, that is up to you. I would be willing to guess that success in trading is probably close to 10% knowledge and 90% discipline/hard work. Perhaps this is why the "mortality" rate of would-be-traders is so high. Not everyone is suited to short-term trading. Many brilliant people have been shot down in flames while trading. My theory is that they try to out think the market, out maneuver it. They also try to re-invent tried-and-true trade plans and end up making things more complicated than they need to be. Both are usually very bad ideas, which for the most part, end up failing, and worse, lightening your wallet, sometimes by quite a lot! I mention this only to make a point. That being true, the trading method you are about to learn about here in these pages, has been developed, traded, optimized and adapted in the real world of trading. This program is not some theoretical algorithm that some mathematician somewhere has dreamt up. No, this plan has earned its stripes the hard way. Through blood, sweat, and tears, through failures and success. It is the backbone of how I personally trade.

Getting Ready to Trade

It would probably be wise at this point to have a little discussion on a few important and key elements to our trade plan before we jump into the trading rules and setups themselves. These would be; our primary tool - the chart, which markets to trade and why, the individual - that being you, and lastly, funding and risk.

The Chart - Part 1

The chart that we tend to favor for this style of trading is what's known as a candlestick chart. Because of how it is physically constructed, it is very easy to read and interpret in the chaos of a trading frenzy. We'll take a closer look at it shortly.

Which Market

Now comes the important decision as to what, or, which of the many markets to trade. Not all markets are suitable to the average trader to trade, and not all are created equal. When it comes to short term trading, there are three market traits that the individual must pay very close attention to and look out for before he / she begins trading it.
They are as follows:
Liquidity - Any market under consideration for trading must be liquid. That meaning, look for markets that are highly active with many various participants and creating a large amount of trading volume. High volume on its own, does not guarantee liquidity, it is the volume spread out, or distributed over a vast number of traders, each with different agendas, that allows for the almost immediate execution of buy and sell orders.
Smoothness - What we as short term traders are looking for in a market is nice orderly movement of price. We stay clear of erratic, jumpy markets at all costs. Consistency, smoothness and "predictability" of price behavior are what you should be looking for. Markets with a history of wide gaps in prices, large and meaningless price swings, or otherwise just chop, with prices moving back and forth, going nowhere, should be avoided like the plaque!
Range - Lastly, the market must have enough room, or range to make trading it worthwhile. Look for markets that have at least a 750.00 dollar trading range top to bottom, on a consistent basis. With this size range, there should be adequate opportunities and potential to profit and cover the associated costs of trading.

You

As briefly touched upon during the introduction, many clever people are just not suited to trading. Each individual must make an honest evaluation of him / herself before putting hard earned money, and precious time on the line. It is just a fact that a lot of people just don't have the mindset or the emotional makeup for trading. For some, the ups and downs of trading swings are just too much to deal with. It is just a personality trait, simple as that. Also, a trader must be prepared for long, lonely hours sitting in front of, and staring at a computer screen. If you like or need to be in the presence of others while working, trading may not be for you. Take a good hard look at yourself, is trading really for me?

Funding and Risk

Like any other business, you need capital to start with. How much capital you have to work with will dictate what markets you can trade. The more volatile a market, the more risk you will need to assume to trade it. It is therefore imperative to be properly funded with a strict money/risk management plan in place. If you don’t, do not trade until you do!

The Chart - Part 2

Ok, let us delve a little deeper into the chart itself. The chart is simply a graphical and dynamic representation of the supply, demand and price characteristics of the market at any given point in time. It can also convey to us, the "mood" or the psychology of that particular market - again, at any given point in time or price level. Price, direction, and trend are what we need to know in order to place our orders intelligently and give us the highest probability to profit from a given trade. This is what the charts help us to do. The chart itself is made up of individual "candles" or price bars. Each of these candles show to us the price movement over the given candles duration.
For most of this essay, we will be using 15-minute candle stick charts, thus, each candle will represent 15 minutes of price action. Let us now look and see how the candle itself is constructed.

Example 1

Let’s take a look at the Bullish Candle (below) first.

The candle is made up of 3 parts, the Body, the Wick, and the Tail. The distance between the top of the wick and the bottom of the tail is the entire range of price that occurred in the market during that 15-minute period. The bottom of the body was the price of the first trade made, and top of the body was the last trade made, for that 15-minute interval, hence the term open and close respectively. With a bullish candle, since prices closed higher than where they opened, then obviously, prices had to have been rising. Conversely, the Bearish Candle, “see below”, has its opening price higher than its closing price, therefore indicating prices fell during that period.

Depending on which charting software you use, bullish candles are usually either clear or green in color, while bearish candles will be filled, or red in color. In fact, nowadays, you can make the candles any color you wish.
There is a third, and very rare candle that we look for, and that is the "Doji" candle. This candle opens and closes at the same price (or within a tick or 2 of each other). This is usually neutral as far as the market is concerned, prices are content where they are with one exception. If the Doji candle occurs as a “swing” high or a “swing” low point on the chart, they more often than not signal a market reversal is about to occur. Prices have a high probability of turning around and moving in the opposite direction. Keep your eyes peeled for them, especially in the vicinity of one of our Fire Lines!

Fire Lines

Fire Lines are our statistical proprietary indicator that we use to produce price levels or price points, where we expect to see a lot of significant intraday trading activity, as well as to determine the likely trend of the price action for that particular day. Fire Lines typically identify areas where prices will be supported in a down trend, or resisted in an uptrend. It is at these levels that we seek to trade at. It is here, that we can enter the market with the least amount of risk and the greatest amount of potential.
And now for a few definitions:
Inflection Point (I.P.): This is our strongest level and the point at which, if crossed, we expect the trend to change. As a rule of thumb, if prices are above the IP, the market is deemed to be bullish, if prices are below the IP, the market is considered bearish.
Upper Value Range (U.V.R.): The highest price level we would expect to see the market trade at on a given, non-trending day. Very bullish if prices are at or above this level - a great place to initiate a long position from.
Lower Value Range (L.V.R.): The lowest price level we would expect to see the market trade at on a given, non-trending day. Very bearish if prices are at or below this level - a great place to initiate a short position from.
Targets and Objectives: The prices or levels we would expect the market to reach should the current trend continue. At these levels we can look for a trade, however most of the time we are already in one by the time these areas are reached! As such, we just call them targets, or objectives. They can sometimes also provide re-entry points for those days that are trending strongly, or a place to add size to winning positions.
The “Abattoir”: A French word meaning slaughterhouse. I use it to describe the area between the moving average and a Fire Line. A trader, as a general rule, does not want to initiate a trade in this area as it is prone to giving false signals and whipsaw - like price action. Basically an area of consolidation where no tradable trend is present.
So those, in a nutshell are the Fire Lines.
Simple Moving Average (SMA): Essentially a trend following measurement. An arithmetic mean of the number of periods assigned to it. e.g. A 96 SMA on our chart will sum and average the price data of the last 96 candles and plot it on the chart as a line.

Now for the Meat of It - A Typical Day

The first thing to do is to prepare your chart for the next trading session. I suggest just putting on the UVR, the IP, and the LVR lines only at first so your chart remains uncluttered and you can more clearly see what’s going on as prices begin to move. Of course, make sure your moving average is on the chart as well. The example below is pretty much how I have my chart set up going into the next trading session.

Non-Trending and Dangerous

Ok, let us examine the chart above and see what story it is trying to tell us.
Starting from the left hand side, notice how prices rapidly climb higher, go through the UVR (1st black arrow), and then just as quickly retreat. In fact, they fell back below the LVR where that level then became resistance (2 purple arrows). This is exactly the type of price action that gets so many new traders into trouble. When things get volatile, the adrenalin begins to flow and thoughts of fast and easy money fills their heads. For some strange reason, the thoughts of fast and easy losses never get thought about. Perhaps it is our optimistic nature as human beings, however optimism should NEVER be the basis of any one individual trade, be that getting into, or staying in a position. Optimism about ones trading, absolutely, but never when it comes to a trade! Risk management is what you need to focus on a day-to-day basis, and above average, unexplained volatility is usually a warning sign to stay away!

Now for the “Abattoir”

This is really not a big deal as it can be very easily recognized and avoided by following one very simple rule. DO NOT ENTER INTO A TRADE IF THE PRICE IS BETWEEN ANY OF THE FIRE LINES AND THE 96 SMA. Way more often than not, price will just bounce around between the levels, not a place where you want to be vulnerable and at risk. Sooner or later one side or the other will yield, and that’s when you want to play. Let the gamblers fight the battle, we’ll come in after the battle has been won on the side of the victors, and ride on their coat tails! Not glamourous or pretty, but usually highly profitable with little risk.

And Finally, the “Range”

This is the defined area between the Upper and Lower Value Range levels. (U.V.R and L.V.R.) Just like the “Abattoir”, this area can be subject to wild price gyrations and very erratic price movement. Typically, not a terrific spot to trade in. Having said that however, every once and awhile you can sometimes get a trade from the Inflection Point to either the U.V.R. or the L.V.R. depending on the trend, and of course depending on the stop size, or risk. But, as a general rule, trading within this range is dangerous and not recommended.
One last note on this chart. Notice both the U.V.R. and the L.V.R. get broken and then prices quickly return back inside the range (marked by black arrows). We don’t want to immediately initiate a trade when our levels are broken but instead wait to see if the broken level begins to act as support, as in the case of the U.V.R. breaking or becomes resistance, in the case of the L.V.R. being penetrated. We look for what we like to call, BHG (Break, Hold, and Go) before trading.
Here is an example of how I like to make a trade, in this case, a short in a strong down trend.

First thing to notice are the little green bubbles. See how at those points prices are coming to the Fire Lines and being repelled by them? The subsequent high and low swings now become perfect entry levels for us. As an example, we can see a swing low as marked by the light blue arrow. The following candle attempts to rally but is defeated... the selling pressure is still on. Therefore, we can quite safely place our sell order just below the marked swing low (broken blue line) with an initial objective of the 2nd Target. It is at these swing highs and lows (or very close to) at our Fire Lines that we seek to trade from.
Very often however, you just cannot get onto a trade safely. Notice the black arrow.
It is pointing towards a candle whose range is much larger than that of the other candles around it... a volatile situation likely caused by a news item or economic report. In this case the risks are just far too great relative to the potential rewards to try and trade it. The smart traders will likely retreat.
Let’s look at one more, this time on the buy side.

As you can see, it is pretty much the same idea as we had on the previous chart only this time we are buying at our Fire Lines in a strong uptrend. Line to line, smooth as silk.



Source

HALAMAN SELANJUTNYA:

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