ESMA Regulations – What Will Less Leverage Mean? | Trading Forex
The European Union has published new regulations applying to retail Forex, CFD, and the few remaining binary options brokerages in its territory. If you have an account with one such brokerage, the regulations will affect you when they come into force during the late spring and summer. This article will outline how the new regulations will impact your bottom line.
Details of the New ESMA Regulations
In March 2018, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the financial regulator and supervisor of the European Union, announced new regulations concerning the provision of contracts for differences (CFDs) and binary options to retail investors. It is unclear exactly when the regulations will come into force, but some time in May or June 2018 looks to be the most likely date, and Forex and CFD brokerages located within the European Union (including the United Kingdom, for the time being) will be forced to comply. The regulations will need to be renewed by ESMA every three months to remain in force over the long term.
The regulation concerning binary options is very simple: they may not be sold. In simple terms, this is the end of binary options as a product sold from within the European Union.
The regulations concerning CFDs are more complex but still relatively straightforward. Firstly, there is some confusion as to what exactly is a CFD, with many traders thinking that spot Forex is not considered a CFD and will therefore be exempt from the new regulations. They are wrong: spot Forex is technically defined as a CFD. In fact, every asset you see available for trading at Forex / CFD brokers will most likely be subject to the new regulations.
The new regulations will implement the following changes for retail client accounts (more on who is a retail client; later).
-
The maximum leverage which can be offered will be 30 to 1. That will apply to major currency pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, etc.
-
Other currency pairs, major equity indices, and gold will be subject to a maximum leverage of 20 to 1.
-
Individual equities cannot be offered with leverage greater than 5 to 1.
-
Cryptocurrencies are subject to a maximum leverage of 2 to 1.
-
Brokers will be required to provide negative balance protection, meaning it will be impossible to lose more money than you deposit.
-
Brokers will be required to close a clients open positions when the account equity reaches 50% of the required minimum margin by all open positions. This ;margin call; provision can be tricky to understand, so will be explained in more detail later.
-
Bonuses or any other form of trading incentives may not be offered.
-
Brokers will be required to display a standardized risk warning which will include the percentage of their clients who lose money over a defined period.
Understanding the ;Margin Call; Regulation
The best way to understand the 50% margin call provision is to use an example. Imagine a client opens an account with a Forex broker, depositing ;100 in total. The client opens a short trade in EUR/USD, by going short one mini-lot (one tenth of a full lot). One full lot of EUR/USD is worth ;10,000, meaning one mini-lot is worth ;1,000. To find out the minimum margin required to support that trade, we divide the size of the trade (;1,000) by 30, which comes to ;33.33. This is the minimum required margin to maintain the trade. Half of that amount is ;16.67. Now assume the trade goes against the client, with the price of EUR/USD rising above the entry price. As soon as the price rises far enough to produce a floating loss of ;83.33 (;100 - ;16.67), the broker must close the trade out, even if the trade has no stop loss or has not yet reached the stop loss. In theory, this means that a client;s account can never reach zero. Examples involving multiple open trades will be more complex, but will operate according to the same principles.
What Will This Mean for Traders?
The regulations will only apply to ;retail clients;, so you might try to apply to be classed as a professional trader. To get a broker to classify you as anything other than a retail client, you will have to show you have financial qualifications, a large amount of liquid assets, plenty of experience trading, and usually that you also trade frequently. Most traders will be unable to qualify, although it is worth noting that one London-based brokerage, IG Group, has stated that their proportion of clients now classified as recently increased from 5% to 15% of their total customers.
The major impact these regulations will have on traders is simple ndash; the maximum trade size they can possibly make at brokers regulated in the European Union will shrink. Many will say that the maximum leverage limits still offer far more than any trader could need, and I agree. I am wary of leverage and I hate to see anyone using leverage greater than 3 to 1 for Forex under any conditions, or any leverage at all for stocks and cryptocurrencies. Commodities can also fluctuate wildly in value. Too many people forget that the biggest danger in leverage is not overly large position sizing, it is that a ldquo;black swan rdquo; event such as the CHF flash crash of 2015 could happen and wipe out your account through huge price slippage. However, there is another factor that is widely forgotten: why assume that a trader rsquo;s account at one Forex broker is all the money they have in the world? For example, a trader might have $10,000 in the bank. If they deposit $1,000 at a broker offering maximum leverage of 300 to 1, they can trade up to $300,000. At a leverage limit of 30 to 1, that trader will have to deposit their entire $10,000 fund to trade at the same size. In a real sense, that trader might now have to take on more risk to operate in the same way, because if the broker goes bust, while beforehand they might lose $1,000 now they could lose $10,000! Even without negative balance protection, that broker would still have to come after them to try to get an extra $9,000 which they theoretically risk. Yet we saw after the CHF crash that brokers don rsquo;t come after every single client whose losses exceeded their deposit, due to legal costs and reputational issues. This shows that although the stated purpose of the regulation is to protect traders from excessive losses, the story is not as simple as you may think.
Beyond having to deposit more margin, and automatic margin calls, the other major change for traders will be that they will enjoy negative balance protection. This is a positive development which hopefully will make brokerages focus more heavily on the risks they are taking with their business model in the market. At the same time, a possible side effect of the new regulation is the potential increase in average deposits, leading to brokerages being more stable and better capitalized with client funds. Two final notes: brokerages will have to report on their websites the percentages of clients who are losing and making money, although the period over which the statistics must refer to is currently not clear. This will help to shed light on the debate over what percentage of retail traders are profitable, although some brokerages have already released what they claim to be accurate statistics showing that clients with larger account sizes tend to perform better as traders. Additionally, bonuses and promotions will be banned. I welcome this, as not only do they trivialize the serious business of trading, they are almost always a trick offering the illusion of free money whilst preventing traders from withdrawing any profits until a large number of trades are made (read the fine print the next time you squo;).
What If Yoursquo;re Not Happy Remaining in the EU?
Traders with accounts at affected brokers who cannot obtain professional status classification and feel they really need higher leverage than the ESMA limits outlined above might look for a solution by opening accounts with brokers outside the European Union. The most obvious destination would be Australia or New Zealand, where it will still be possible to find reasonably well-regulated Forex brokerages offering leverage in the range of 400 to 1. A recent development that is not talked about much is the growing difficulty of transferring funds to and from Forex brokerages in less tightly regulated jurisdictions. You might decide to open an account with a brokerage in Vanuatu, but you may find that a bank within the European Union might just refuse to send your money there for a deposit. This means that going far offshore, depending upon where you live, may not be a feasible option. In any case, the new regule impossible to live with, and overall there is a compelling case that they are a net benefit to any trader, so why migrate?
Time of Day in Forex Trading | Trading Forex
Forex traders searching for a profitable trading method usually look at candlestick analysis, fundamental economics, trends, and overbought or oversold indicators as guidelines for when to enter and exit trades. There is another factor that is often overlooked, but which can be a surprisingly powerful element within a trading strategy: the time of day in Forex trading.
Volume and Time of Day in Forex Trading
It is well known that the majority of Forex trading by volume occurs during the London and New York sessions with the peak period occurring during the overlap between the two. For this reason, many traders – especially day traders – prefer to trade between 8am London time and 5pm New York time. Traders that live in time zones which render these hours inconvenient face a dilemma which they often try to resolve by trading only longer-term time frames such as the daily chart or perhaps a 4 hour chart, or maybe by focusing on Asian currencies which are assumed to be more active during Asian business hours than non-Asian currency pairs.This two-pronged approach can use time of day in Forex trading determine which currency pairs should be traded and at which times of the day. Some analysts like to measure average volatilities of various pairs during the different time zones, and conclude that the best thing to do is trade a currency pair during the times when it is statistically most volatile. This may be oversimplifying things, however, because volatility does not necessarily equate with direction. In other words, just because the average range of a session is 80 pips for EUR/USD, for example, does not mean that it is 80 pips in one direction.
Session Opens and Closes
Extra power can be derived by seeking to enter trades very close to the beginning or end of a major financial center’s business hours. This is because it is at these times that major reversals in price occur disproportionately often, so these are the times where getting in early just as a reversal takes place can really pay off.I constructed a case study with a large sample size in an attempt to prove my points about the time of day in Forex trading by means of a comprehensive back test.
I took the USD against the 7 other major global currencies, creating a total of 7 Forex currency pairs. The time range of the back test was from 2002 until the end of 2015.
Trade entries were made in line with both the 3 and 6 month trends. Entries were triggered from a 4 hour chart where a candlestick made a lower low than the previous four candlesticks and then broke to the upside within the next candle (for long entries), with the stop loss being placed just the other side of the candle. For short entries, the method was simply reversed.
The 4 hour time period was chosen fixed to London time, as the opens and closes of these candles mark some crucial times of day:
* Midnight London time is often used as a benchmark for daily trades.
* 8am is the traditional start of the London session and is close to the end of the Tokyo session.
* Noon time is close to the New York open.
* 4pm and 8pm overlap with the New York session.
Back Test Results
A total of 6,482 hypothetical trades were taken over a 14 year period. The method used was profitable no matter what take profit targets were used. The chart below show the expectancies of the strategy based upon multiples of risk, e.g. if the stop loss in a trade was 80 pips, a ratio of 1 to 1 would be a take profit at 80 pips, a ratio of 2 to 1 would be a take profit of 160 pips, etc.The headline row in the table below shows the overall results, while the rows below that show the results for entries taken during the 4 hour period commencing at the London time on the left. The cells that are highlighted in yellow show those times where results superior to the overall results were achieved.
Firstly, starting with the leftmost column showing frequency of entries, we can see that about half of all the trades occurred at either Noon or 16:00 London time. Secondly, we can see that entries taken between Noon and Midnight London time were quite clearly the most profitable times to trade USD pairs overall. Can it be that the New York session is actually more important than the London session? Thirdly, note how the results in general improve the higher the profit target, up to a reward to risk ratio of about 50 to 1.
One question remains: are there significant differences between the seven currency pairs regarding the time of day in Forex trading?
The EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs were more profitable at 4am and 8am than the general sample, and the USD/CHF pair was more profitable at 4am. This suggests that when the USD is paired with European currencies, entries near the start of European business hours become more significant. The table below shows results for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF:
The USD/CAD currency pair was much more profitable during the entries corresponding to New York business hours than the general sample:
The three remaining currency pairs which were composed of Asian currencies paired with the USD – AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY – were uniquely profitable at Midnight, and also put in a very good performance at 4am, and again at 8pm, corresponding quite closely to Asian business hours:
Conclusion
There is no doubt that reversals could be traded with best results during the local business hours of either of the currencies within the currency pair. Note how the best overall results correspond to trade entries taken during New York business hours, as the common currency of all the 7 pairs tested is the USD. The time of day in Forex trading is a more important variable than most traders think.
Source
Time of Day in Forex Trading | Trading Forex
Forex traders searching for a profitable trading method usually look at candlestick analysis, fundamental economics, trends, and overbought or oversold indicators as guidelines for when to enter and exit trades. There is another factor that is often overlooked, but which can be a surprisingly powerful element within a trading strategy: the time of day in Forex trading.
Volume and Time of Day in Forex Trading
It is well known that the majority of Forex trading by volume occurs during the London and New York sessions with the peak period occurring during the overlap between the two. For this reason, many traders – especially day traders – prefer to trade between 8am London time and 5pm New York time. Traders that live in time zones which render these hours inconvenient face a dilemma which they often try to resolve by trading only longer-term time frames such as the daily chart or perhaps a 4 hour chart, or maybe by focusing on Asian currencies which are assumed to be more active during Asian business hours than non-Asian currency pairs.This two-pronged approach can use time of day in Forex trading determine which currency pairs should be traded and at which times of the day. Some analysts like to measure average volatilities of various pairs during the different time zones, and conclude that the best thing to do is trade a currency pair during the times when it is statistically most volatile. This may be oversimplifying things, however, because volatility does not necessarily equate with direction. In other words, just because the average range of a session is 80 pips for EUR/USD, for example, does not mean that it is 80 pips in one direction.
Session Opens and Closes
Extra power can be derived by seeking to enter trades very close to the beginning or end of a major financial center’s business hours. This is because it is at these times that major reversals in price occur disproportionately often, so these are the times where getting in early just as a reversal takes place can really pay off.I constructed a case study with a large sample size in an attempt to prove my points about the time of day in Forex trading by means of a comprehensive back test.
I took the USD against the 7 other major global currencies, creating a total of 7 Forex currency pairs. The time range of the back test was from 2002 until the end of 2015.
Trade entries were made in line with both the 3 and 6 month trends. Entries were triggered from a 4 hour chart where a candlestick made a lower low than the previous four candlesticks and then broke to the upside within the next candle (for long entries), with the stop loss being placed just the other side of the candle. For short entries, the method was simply reversed.
The 4 hour time period was chosen fixed to London time, as the opens and closes of these candles mark some crucial times of day:
* Midnight London time is often used as a benchmark for daily trades.
* 8am is the traditional start of the London session and is close to the end of the Tokyo session.
* Noon time is close to the New York open.
* 4pm and 8pm overlap with the New York session.
Back Test Results
A total of 6,482 hypothetical trades were taken over a 14 year period. The method used was profitable no matter what take profit targets were used. The chart below show the expectancies of the strategy based upon multiples of risk, e.g. if the stop loss in a trade was 80 pips, a ratio of 1 to 1 would be a take profit at 80 pips, a ratio of 2 to 1 would be a take profit of 160 pips, etc.The headline row in the table below shows the overall results, while the rows below that show the results for entries taken during the 4 hour period commencing at the London time on the left. The cells that are highlighted in yellow show those times where results superior to the overall results were achieved.
Firstly, starting with the leftmost column showing frequency of entries, we can see that about half of all the trades occurred at either Noon or 16:00 London time. Secondly, we can see that entries taken between Noon and Midnight London time were quite clearly the most profitable times to trade USD pairs overall. Can it be that the New York session is actually more important than the London session? Thirdly, note how the results in general improve the higher the profit target, up to a reward to risk ratio of about 50 to 1.
One question remains: are there significant differences between the seven currency pairs regarding the time of day in Forex trading?
The EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs were more profitable at 4am and 8am than the general sample, and the USD/CHF pair was more profitable at 4am. This suggests that when the USD is paired with European currencies, entries near the start of European business hours become more significant. The table below shows results for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF:
The USD/CAD currency pair was much more profitable during the entries corresponding to New York business hours than the general sample:
The three remaining currency pairs which were composed of Asian currencies paired with the USD – AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY – were uniquely profitable at Midnight, and also put in a very good performance at 4am, and again at 8pm, corresponding quite closely to Asian business hours:
Conclusion
There is no doubt that reversals could be traded with best results during the local business hours of either of the currencies within the currency pair. Note how the best overall results correspond to trade entries taken during New York business hours, as the common currency of all the 7 pairs tested is the USD. The time of day in Forex trading is a more important variable than most traders think.
Source
Time of Day in Forex Trading | Trading Forex
Forex traders searching for a profitable trading method usually look at candlestick analysis, fundamental economics, trends, and overbought or oversold indicators as guidelines for when to enter and exit trades. There is another factor that is often overlooked, but which can be a surprisingly powerful element within a trading strategy: the time of day in Forex trading.
Volume and Time of Day in Forex Trading
It is well known that the majority of Forex trading by volume occurs during the London and New York sessions with the peak period occurring during the overlap between the two. For this reason, many traders – especially day traders – prefer to trade between 8am London time and 5pm New York time. Traders that live in time zones which render these hours inconvenient face a dilemma which they often try to resolve by trading only longer-term time frames such as the daily chart or perhaps a 4 hour chart, or maybe by focusing on Asian currencies which are assumed to be more active during Asian business hours than non-Asian currency pairs.This two-pronged approach can use time of day in Forex trading determine which currency pairs should be traded and at which times of the day. Some analysts like to measure average volatilities of various pairs during the different time zones, and conclude that the best thing to do is trade a currency pair during the times when it is statistically most volatile. This may be oversimplifying things, however, because volatility does not necessarily equate with direction. In other words, just because the average range of a session is 80 pips for EUR/USD, for example, does not mean that it is 80 pips in one direction.
Session Opens and Closes
Extra power can be derived by seeking to enter trades very close to the beginning or end of a major financial center’s business hours. This is because it is at these times that major reversals in price occur disproportionately often, so these are the times where getting in early just as a reversal takes place can really pay off.I constructed a case study with a large sample size in an attempt to prove my points about the time of day in Forex trading by means of a comprehensive back test.
I took the USD against the 7 other major global currencies, creating a total of 7 Forex currency pairs. The time range of the back test was from 2002 until the end of 2015.
Trade entries were made in line with both the 3 and 6 month trends. Entries were triggered from a 4 hour chart where a candlestick made a lower low than the previous four candlesticks and then broke to the upside within the next candle (for long entries), with the stop loss being placed just the other side of the candle. For short entries, the method was simply reversed.
The 4 hour time period was chosen fixed to London time, as the opens and closes of these candles mark some crucial times of day:
* Midnight London time is often used as a benchmark for daily trades.
* 8am is the traditional start of the London session and is close to the end of the Tokyo session.
* Noon time is close to the New York open.
* 4pm and 8pm overlap with the New York session.
Back Test Results
A total of 6,482 hypothetical trades were taken over a 14 year period. The method used was profitable no matter what take profit targets were used. The chart below show the expectancies of the strategy based upon multiples of risk, e.g. if the stop loss in a trade was 80 pips, a ratio of 1 to 1 would be a take profit at 80 pips, a ratio of 2 to 1 would be a take profit of 160 pips, etc.The headline row in the table below shows the overall results, while the rows below that show the results for entries taken during the 4 hour period commencing at the London time on the left. The cells that are highlighted in yellow show those times where results superior to the overall results were achieved.
Firstly, starting with the leftmost column showing frequency of entries, we can see that about half of all the trades occurred at either Noon or 16:00 London time. Secondly, we can see that entries taken between Noon and Midnight London time were quite clearly the most profitable times to trade USD pairs overall. Can it be that the New York session is actually more important than the London session? Thirdly, note how the results in general improve the higher the profit target, up to a reward to risk ratio of about 50 to 1.
One question remains: are there significant differences between the seven currency pairs regarding the time of day in Forex trading?
The EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs were more profitable at 4am and 8am than the general sample, and the USD/CHF pair was more profitable at 4am. This suggests that when the USD is paired with European currencies, entries near the start of European business hours become more significant. The table below shows results for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF:
The USD/CAD currency pair was much more profitable during the entries corresponding to New York business hours than the general sample:
The three remaining currency pairs which were composed of Asian currencies paired with the USD – AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY – were uniquely profitable at Midnight, and also put in a very good performance at 4am, and again at 8pm, corresponding quite closely to Asian business hours:
Conclusion
There is no doubt that reversals could be traded with best results during the local business hours of either of the currencies within the currency pair. Note how the best overall results correspond to trade entries taken during New York business hours, as the common currency of all the 7 pairs tested is the USD. The time of day in Forex trading is a more important variable than most traders think.
Source
Time of Day in Forex Trading | Trading Forex
Forex traders searching for a profitable trading method usually look at candlestick analysis, fundamental economics, trends, and overbought or oversold indicators as guidelines for when to enter and exit trades. There is another factor that is often overlooked, but which can be a surprisingly powerful element within a trading strategy: the time of day in Forex trading.
Volume and Time of Day in Forex Trading
It is well known that the majority of Forex trading by volume occurs during the London and New York sessions with the peak period occurring during the overlap between the two. For this reason, many traders – especially day traders – prefer to trade between 8am London time and 5pm New York time. Traders that live in time zones which render these hours inconvenient face a dilemma which they often try to resolve by trading only longer-term time frames such as the daily chart or perhaps a 4 hour chart, or maybe by focusing on Asian currencies which are assumed to be more active during Asian business hours than non-Asian currency pairs.This two-pronged approach can use time of day in Forex trading determine which currency pairs should be traded and at which times of the day. Some analysts like to measure average volatilities of various pairs during the different time zones, and conclude that the best thing to do is trade a currency pair during the times when it is statistically most volatile. This may be oversimplifying things, however, because volatility does not necessarily equate with direction. In other words, just because the average range of a session is 80 pips for EUR/USD, for example, does not mean that it is 80 pips in one direction.
Session Opens and Closes
Extra power can be derived by seeking to enter trades very close to the beginning or end of a major financial center’s business hours. This is because it is at these times that major reversals in price occur disproportionately often, so these are the times where getting in early just as a reversal takes place can really pay off.I constructed a case study with a large sample size in an attempt to prove my points about the time of day in Forex trading by means of a comprehensive back test.
I took the USD against the 7 other major global currencies, creating a total of 7 Forex currency pairs. The time range of the back test was from 2002 until the end of 2015.
Trade entries were made in line with both the 3 and 6 month trends. Entries were triggered from a 4 hour chart where a candlestick made a lower low than the previous four candlesticks and then broke to the upside within the next candle (for long entries), with the stop loss being placed just the other side of the candle. For short entries, the method was simply reversed.
The 4 hour time period was chosen fixed to London time, as the opens and closes of these candles mark some crucial times of day:
* Midnight London time is often used as a benchmark for daily trades.
* 8am is the traditional start of the London session and is close to the end of the Tokyo session.
* Noon time is close to the New York open.
* 4pm and 8pm overlap with the New York session.
Back Test Results
A total of 6,482 hypothetical trades were taken over a 14 year period. The method used was profitable no matter what take profit targets were used. The chart below show the expectancies of the strategy based upon multiples of risk, e.g. if the stop loss in a trade was 80 pips, a ratio of 1 to 1 would be a take profit at 80 pips, a ratio of 2 to 1 would be a take profit of 160 pips, etc.The headline row in the table below shows the overall results, while the rows below that show the results for entries taken during the 4 hour period commencing at the London time on the left. The cells that are highlighted in yellow show those times where results superior to the overall results were achieved.
Firstly, starting with the leftmost column showing frequency of entries, we can see that about half of all the trades occurred at either Noon or 16:00 London time. Secondly, we can see that entries taken between Noon and Midnight London time were quite clearly the most profitable times to trade USD pairs overall. Can it be that the New York session is actually more important than the London session? Thirdly, note how the results in general improve the higher the profit target, up to a reward to risk ratio of about 50 to 1.
One question remains: are there significant differences between the seven currency pairs regarding the time of day in Forex trading?
The EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs were more profitable at 4am and 8am than the general sample, and the USD/CHF pair was more profitable at 4am. This suggests that when the USD is paired with European currencies, entries near the start of European business hours become more significant. The table below shows results for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF:
The USD/CAD currency pair was much more profitable during the entries corresponding to New York business hours than the general sample:
The three remaining currency pairs which were composed of Asian currencies paired with the USD – AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY – were uniquely profitable at Midnight, and also put in a very good performance at 4am, and again at 8pm, corresponding quite closely to Asian business hours:
Conclusion
There is no doubt that reversals could be traded with best results during the local business hours of either of the currencies within the currency pair. Note how the best overall results correspond to trade entries taken during New York business hours, as the common currency of all the 7 pairs tested is the USD. The time of day in Forex trading is a more important variable than most traders think.
Source
Time of Day in Forex Trading | Trading Forex
Forex traders searching for a profitable trading method usually look at candlestick analysis, fundamental economics, trends, and overbought or oversold indicators as guidelines for when to enter and exit trades. There is another factor that is often overlooked, but which can be a surprisingly powerful element within a trading strategy: the time of day in Forex trading.
Volume and Time of Day in Forex Trading
It is well known that the majority of Forex trading by volume occurs during the London and New York sessions with the peak period occurring during the overlap between the two. For this reason, many traders – especially day traders – prefer to trade between 8am London time and 5pm New York time. Traders that live in time zones which render these hours inconvenient face a dilemma which they often try to resolve by trading only longer-term time frames such as the daily chart or perhaps a 4 hour chart, or maybe by focusing on Asian currencies which are assumed to be more active during Asian business hours than non-Asian currency pairs.This two-pronged approach can use time of day in Forex trading determine which currency pairs should be traded and at which times of the day. Some analysts like to measure average volatilities of various pairs during the different time zones, and conclude that the best thing to do is trade a currency pair during the times when it is statistically most volatile. This may be oversimplifying things, however, because volatility does not necessarily equate with direction. In other words, just because the average range of a session is 80 pips for EUR/USD, for example, does not mean that it is 80 pips in one direction.
Session Opens and Closes
Extra power can be derived by seeking to enter trades very close to the beginning or end of a major financial center’s business hours. This is because it is at these times that major reversals in price occur disproportionately often, so these are the times where getting in early just as a reversal takes place can really pay off.I constructed a case study with a large sample size in an attempt to prove my points about the time of day in Forex trading by means of a comprehensive back test.
I took the USD against the 7 other major global currencies, creating a total of 7 Forex currency pairs. The time range of the back test was from 2002 until the end of 2015.
Trade entries were made in line with both the 3 and 6 month trends. Entries were triggered from a 4 hour chart where a candlestick made a lower low than the previous four candlesticks and then broke to the upside within the next candle (for long entries), with the stop loss being placed just the other side of the candle. For short entries, the method was simply reversed.
The 4 hour time period was chosen fixed to London time, as the opens and closes of these candles mark some crucial times of day:
* Midnight London time is often used as a benchmark for daily trades.
* 8am is the traditional start of the London session and is close to the end of the Tokyo session.
* Noon time is close to the New York open.
* 4pm and 8pm overlap with the New York session.
Back Test Results
A total of 6,482 hypothetical trades were taken over a 14 year period. The method used was profitable no matter what take profit targets were used. The chart below show the expectancies of the strategy based upon multiples of risk, e.g. if the stop loss in a trade was 80 pips, a ratio of 1 to 1 would be a take profit at 80 pips, a ratio of 2 to 1 would be a take profit of 160 pips, etc.The headline row in the table below shows the overall results, while the rows below that show the results for entries taken during the 4 hour period commencing at the London time on the left. The cells that are highlighted in yellow show those times where results superior to the overall results were achieved.
Firstly, starting with the leftmost column showing frequency of entries, we can see that about half of all the trades occurred at either Noon or 16:00 London time. Secondly, we can see that entries taken between Noon and Midnight London time were quite clearly the most profitable times to trade USD pairs overall. Can it be that the New York session is actually more important than the London session? Thirdly, note how the results in general improve the higher the profit target, up to a reward to risk ratio of about 50 to 1.
One question remains: are there significant differences between the seven currency pairs regarding the time of day in Forex trading?
The EUR/USD and GBP/USD currency pairs were more profitable at 4am and 8am than the general sample, and the USD/CHF pair was more profitable at 4am. This suggests that when the USD is paired with European currencies, entries near the start of European business hours become more significant. The table below shows results for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF:
The USD/CAD currency pair was much more profitable during the entries corresponding to New York business hours than the general sample:
The three remaining currency pairs which were composed of Asian currencies paired with the USD – AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY – were uniquely profitable at Midnight, and also put in a very good performance at 4am, and again at 8pm, corresponding quite closely to Asian business hours:
Conclusion
There is no doubt that reversals could be traded with best results during the local business hours of either of the currencies within the currency pair. Note how the best overall results correspond to trade entries taken during New York business hours, as the common currency of all the 7 pairs tested is the USD. The time of day in Forex trading is a more important variable than most traders think.
Source
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